Olamide Zaccheaus had three targets and two catches in the last matchup with Green Bay and should get a lot more looks with Luther Burden and Rome Odunze out.
The Packers beat the Bears in a back-and-forth game two weeks ago. I'm expecting a different result this time around, and the home-field advantage swinging from Lambeau to Soldier Field is just one reason. The Packers suffered a massive blow last week when they lost All-Pro pass rusher Micah Parsons to a season-ending injury. Green Bay is also banged up on offense with RB Josh Jacobs, leading receiver Christian Watson, and RT Zach Tom all game-time decisions. The Bears are 10-2 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games. They are second in the NFL in rush success rate while their defense has forced a league-high 30 turnovers. Back them in a revenge spot here.
The Bears ran the ball well against the Packers two weeks ago, with Swift getting 13 handoffs to Monangi’s 14 carries. However, he ran 18 times for a huge game against Cleveland last week – the third time in the past five weeks he’s has at least 18 carries. Chicago leans into the run and has done so even more over the past three games, rushing on more than 51% of snaps. Swift has run at least 13 times in 10 of his 13 games this season. I like the Bears at home and like Swift to record 13 or more rushing attempts.
D’Andre Swift clearly led the backfield last week, getting the first crack at touches and never giving way to Kyle Monangai. That role carried over near the goal line as well, with Swift handling two red-zone carries against the Browns in Week 15 and turning them into 23 yards and two touchdowns. Monangai struggled to get going, while Chicago leaned heavily on Swift’s ability to win on the edge and especially later in the game. He accounted for 10 of the 14 running back opportunities in the second half and appears to be the more trusted option late in games right now. With uncertainty around the Bears’ pass catchers and questions on the Packers’ side as well, Swift at +115 to +120 stands out as my favorite touchdown prop in this matchup.
Without the star pass rusher, this Packers defensive line is far less dangerous and runs into a Chicago offensive line ranked among the best pass protectors and run blockers in the NFL. The big bodies up front are No. 1 in pass block win rate and No. 4 in run block win rate at ESPN — one of only five O-lines to rank Top 10 in both metrics. Williams, who averaged only 5.2 yards per attempt in Week 14, will now have more time to allow deeper plays to develop. And the Bears’ run game is picking up steam. It rushed for 138 yards on 32 carries against Green Bay and is averaging five yards per carry over the past three games. The short turnaround not only compounds the Packers' injuries but puts the schedule squeeze on the Cheeseheads, having to play back-to-back road games and three away games in the last four weeks.
Josh Jacobs ranks in the 84th percentile when it comes to running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) with a superb 15.6 mark this year.. This year, the poor Bears defense has been torched for a massive 73.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 5th-largest rate in the league.. The Chicago Bears defense has been torched for the 10th-most receiving touchdowns in the NFL to running backs: 0.21 per game this year.
The projections expect the Packers to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.. Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) generally mean worse passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased run volume.
The projections expect the Packers to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.. Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) generally mean worse passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased run volume.. The Chicago Bears have intercepted 1.28 passes per game this year, grading out as the best defense in football by this metric.
The projections expect Josh Jacobs to accrue 3.2 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among running backs.. With an exceptional 10.8% Target Rate (86th percentile) this year, Josh Jacobs has been as one of the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the league.. With an excellent 19.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (89th percentile) this year, Josh Jacobs places among the top RBs in the pass game in football.. When it comes to linebackers rushing the passer, Chicago's LB corps has been dreadful this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.
The leading projections forecast the Bears to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Bears this year (a whopping 61.9 per game on average).. Opposing QBs have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.. The projections expect DJ Moore to accrue 7.5 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among WRs.. While DJ Moore has received 15.5% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much more involved in Chicago's passing offense in this game at 24.0%.
Jayden Reed's receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 75.1% to 80.1%.. The Bears pass defense has conceded the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.8%) vs. wideouts this year (67.8%).. The Chicago Bears pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency against wide receivers this year, surrendering 9.68 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in the NFL.. When it comes to linebackers rushing the passer, Chicago's LB corps has been dreadful this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.
The leading projections forecast the Bears to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Bears this year (a whopping 61.9 per game on average).. Opposing QBs have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.. In this week's contest, D'Andre Swift is anticipated by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 76th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.1 targets.. With a high 10.1% Target% (83rd percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift has been among the RB receiving threats with the most usage in the league.
Luke Musgrave has totaled many more air yards this season (16.0 per game) than he did last season (9.0 per game).. Luke Musgrave's 15.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 9.6.. Luke Musgrave has put up quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (16.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).. The Bears pass defense has given up the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (81%) versus tight ends this year (81.0%).. When it comes to linebackers rushing the passer, Chicago's LB corps has been dreadful this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.
The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears as the 6th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 46.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast the Bears to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Bears this year (a whopping 61.9 per game on average).. The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) generally mean worse passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased run volume.. In this week's contest, Josh Jacobs is projected by the model to finish in the 86th percentile among RBs with 16.2 rush attempts.. Josh Jacobs has earned 64.7% of his team's run game usage this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.. This year, the strong Chicago Bears run defense has yielded a mere 5.03 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing ground game: the 28th-best rate in the NFL.. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Chicago's unit has been awful this year, grading out as the 4th-worst in football. in football.
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