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Free College Football Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game Sept. 25, 2026
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
26.91 |
-2.5 -125 |
o48.0 -110 |
-150 |
|
|
23.81 |
+2.5 +105 |
u48.5 -110 |
+135 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
29.93 |
-6.5 -110 |
o51.0 -110 |
-240 |
|
|
23.29 |
+6.5 +102 |
u51.5 -110 |
+235 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
14.28 |
+20.5 +100 |
o49.5 -108 |
+1200 |
|
|
36.43 |
-20.5 -112 |
u49.5 -108 |
-1587 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
24.70 |
+0.0 -110 |
o50.0 -110 |
-110 |
|
|
25.45 |
+0.0 -106 |
u51.0 -115 |
-105 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
24.18 |
+3.5 -120 |
o50.5 -115 |
+130 |
|
|
27.59 |
-3.5 +105 |
u51.5 -120 |
-144 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
21.35 |
+10.5 -120 |
o55.5 -105 |
+310 |
|
|
32.16 |
-10.5 +100 |
u56.5 -115 |
-375 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
24.17 |
+3.5 -122 |
o51.5 -108 |
+125 |
|
|
28.21 |
-3.5 +105 |
u51.5 -108 |
-145 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
22.69 |
+13.5 -108 |
o58.5 -105 |
+480 |
|
|
35.99 |
-13.5 -108 |
u58.5 -110 |
-549 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
31.83 |
-13.5 -120 |
o47.5 -109 |
-600 |
|
|
18.29 |
+13.5 +100 |
u48.5 -115 |
+490 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
22.50 |
+14.5 -135 |
o56.5 -115 |
+450 |
|
|
36.46 |
-14.5 -112 |
u57.5 -110 |
-549 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
29.96 |
-4.5 -105 |
o55.5 +100 |
-190 |
|
|
27.25 |
+4.5 -106 |
u55.5 -110 |
+170 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
31.20 |
-13.5 -110 |
o52.5 -105 |
-526 |
|
|
19.72 |
+13.5 -105 |
u53.0 -110 |
+440 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
13.68 |
+27.5 -110 |
o53.5 -110 |
+1900 |
|
|
40.84 |
-27.5 -105 |
u54.5 -115 |
-4000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
10.37 |
+34.5 -110 |
o55.5 -105 |
+4500 |
|
|
44.45 |
-34.5 -108 |
u56.0 -110 |
-20000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
18.29 |
+20.5 -105 |
o54.0 -113 |
+920 |
|
|
37.49 |
-20.5 -108 |
u54.5 -105 |
-1200 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
28.46 |
-1.5 -110 |
o54.5 -159 |
-120 |
|
|
28.84 |
+1.5 -105 |
u57.0 -109 |
+105 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
21.47 |
+10.5 -110 |
o56.5 -105 |
+340 |
|
|
33.77 |
-10.5 -105 |
u56.5 -110 |
-380 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
43.25 |
-27.5 -112 |
o58.0 -110 |
-4500 |
|
|
16.44 |
+27.5 +105 |
u58.5 -114 |
+2000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
22.03 |
-2.5 -118 |
o43.5 -110 |
-143 |
|
|
19.55 |
+2.5 +105 |
u44.0 -110 |
+135 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
29.70 |
-10.5 -118 |
o48.5 -105 |
-450 |
|
|
18.69 |
+10.5 -108 |
u48.5 -105 |
+400 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
15.64 |
+13.5 -104 |
o44.5 -105 |
+480 |
|
|
30.81 |
-13.5 -110 |
u45.0 -115 |
-550 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
25.60 |
-2.5 -125 |
o48.5 -105 |
-145 |
|
|
23.43 |
+2.5 +105 |
u48.5 -109 |
+130 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
28.34 |
+3.5 -115 |
o58.5 -112 |
+140 |
|
|
32.79 |
-3.5 +100 |
u59.5 -110 |
-156 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
25.77 |
+4.5 -110 |
o51.5 -108 |
+160 |
|
|
28.35 |
-4.5 -113 |
u52.0 -115 |
-162 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
28.89 |
-7.5 -115 |
o47.5 -112 |
-325 |
|
|
20.77 |
+7.5 -105 |
u48.5 -115 |
+270 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
27.76 |
-6.5 -120 |
o49.5 -110 |
-275 |
|
|
21.94 |
+6.5 +100 |
u50.5 -110 |
+240 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
17.50 |
+5.5 -105 |
o38.5 -105 |
+180 |
|
|
21.95 |
-5.5 -108 |
u38.5 -108 |
-215 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
36.12 |
-16.5 -120 |
o56.5 -108 |
-900 |
|
|
19.16 |
+16.5 -106 |
u56.5 -110 |
+675 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
23.44 |
+9.5 -105 |
o54.5 -115 |
+300 |
|
|
32.37 |
-9.5 -105 |
u55.5 -114 |
-350 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
27.54 |
-5.5 -105 |
o48.5 -110 |
-200 |
|
|
21.70 |
+5.5 -105 |
u49.5 -115 |
+190 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
34.32 |
-17.5 -110 |
o48.5 -115 |
-1000 |
|
|
15.46 |
+17.5 -105 |
u49.5 -112 |
+750 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
16.95 |
+10.5 -115 |
o43.5 -115 |
+325 |
|
|
28.78 |
-10.5 +100 |
u44.5 -110 |
-375 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
16.59 |
+20.5 -115 |
o52.5 -108 |
+850 |
|
|
36.46 |
-20.5 -105 |
u52.5 -110 |
-1200 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
26.76 |
-5.5 -115 |
o44.5 -105 |
-220 |
|
|
19.93 |
+5.5 +100 |
u45.0 -112 |
+190 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.79 |
+41.5 +100 |
o53.5 -110 |
+15000 |
|
|
47.82 |
-41.5 -110 |
u54.5 -108 |
-- |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
29.87 |
-9.5 -115 |
o48.5 -110 |
-400 |
|
|
20.40 |
+9.5 +100 |
u49.5 -115 |
+340 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
16.87 |
+18.5 -115 |
o52.5 -108 |
+850 |
|
|
34.14 |
-18.5 -105 |
u52.5 -110 |
-1000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
27.75 |
+2.5 -115 |
o60.5 -109 |
+105 |
|
|
31.12 |
-2.5 -105 |
u61.5 -115 |
-120 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
22.29 |
+6.5 -110 |
o52.5 -110 |
+200 |
|
|
29.24 |
-6.5 -105 |
u53.5 -115 |
-225 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
31.31 |
-5.5 -115 |
o55.5 -105 |
-230 |
|
|
25.65 |
+5.5 -105 |
u55.5 -115 |
+195 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
21.98 |
+13.5 -115 |
o53.5 -115 |
+400 |
|
|
34.16 |
-13.5 -105 |
u54.5 -112 |
-485 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
21.91 |
+7.5 -115 |
o51.5 -105 |
+240 |
|
|
29.46 |
-7.5 +100 |
u51.5 -110 |
-275 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
22.25 |
+10.5 -120 |
o51.5 -110 |
+320 |
|
|
30.54 |
-10.5 +100 |
u52.5 -114 |
-355 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
33.32 |
-2.5 -122 |
o61.5 -105 |
-150 |
|
|
31.01 |
+2.5 +110 |
u61.5 -109 |
+140 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
21.42 |
+3.5 -122 |
o47.0 -110 |
+130 |
|
|
24.03 |
-3.5 +100 |
u47.5 -112 |
-140 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
21.06 |
+14.5 -115 |
o55.0 -110 |
+475 |
|
|
35.02 |
-14.5 +100 |
u55.5 -110 |
-599 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
28.32 |
-10.5 -105 |
o47.5 -110 |
-400 |
|
|
18.62 |
+10.5 -105 |
u48.5 -110 |
+350 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
26.78 |
+6.5 -110 |
o58.5 -110 |
+195 |
|
|
32.86 |
-6.5 -105 |
u59.5 -120 |
-200 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
22.50 |
+7.5 -115 |
o50.5 -109 |
+235 |
|
|
28.40 |
-7.5 +100 |
u51.0 -110 |
-270 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
35.28 |
-12.5 -110 |
o57.5 -108 |
-450 |
|
|
23.32 |
+12.5 -105 |
u57.5 -105 |
+400 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
26.02 |
-3.5 -105 |
o47.5 -120 |
-185 |
|
|
23.02 |
+3.5 -105 |
u48.5 -108 |
+170 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
12.96 |
+34.5 -110 |
o59.5 -110 |
+4000 |
|
|
47.49 |
-34.5 -105 |
u60.5 -110 |
-9000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
32.41 |
-10.5 -110 |
o56.0 -109 |
-425 |
|
|
23.42 |
+10.5 -105 |
u56.5 -110 |
+375 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
14.40 |
+13.5 -105 |
o44.0 -110 |
+500 |
|
|
29.35 |
-13.5 -110 |
u44.5 -110 |
-549 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
26.95 |
-5.5 -108 |
o49.5 -110 |
-220 |
|
|
22.21 |
+5.5 +100 |
u50.5 -114 |
+195 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
26.29 |
-3.5 -102 |
o47.5 -114 |
-170 |
|
|
22.30 |
+3.5 -110 |
u48.5 -114 |
+150 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
18.20 |
+10.5 -115 |
o45.5 -105 |
+325 |
|
|
28.44 |
-10.5 +100 |
u46.5 -115 |
-375 |
Since both teams have a run-heavy offense, I'm banking on this game starting slow. Plus, Northwestern's rushing attack was terrible in its only game vs. an FBS program and Indiana has struggled to keep the chains moving on third down.
Blowouts are where Overs go to die, and pace is the most important factor in handicapping totals. That said, the Wildcats rank 119th nationally in offensive seconds per play, while the Hoosiers rank 123rd.
This is a horrific spot for Clemson. The Tigers have a short week, a cross-country trip and a 10:30 p.m. ET kickoff. The last time they kicked off that late was in 1982, in a game played in Japan! Clemson needed a weather delay to escape North Carolina with a win and a cover last week. Cal, meanwhile, is coming off a comfortable game as a 58.5-point favorite and has been the better team statistically.
Clemson heads across the country for an ACC showdown with Cal after needing a 13-point fourth quarter to beat North Carolina last week. The Tigers covered as 3-point favorites, but a late touchdown while up one helped them secure the cover. Now, Clemson faces a short week, significant travel and a Cal team waiting at home. To make matters worse, No. 6 Miami is next on the schedule for the Tigers on Oct. 3. With several potential distractions surrounding Clemson, including the short turnaround and looming Miami matchup, this could be an interesting spot for Cal against the Tigers.
With an offense that's eighth nationally in offensive explosiveness (1.444) and a defense that's 16th in havoc rate (21.1%), I like Colorado State to cover +10.5 or better. UTSA QB Owen McCown has been inconsistent this season, ranking 113th in QBR (38.0), and this is one of the best G6 defenses he'll face.
Virginia Tech is off to a 3-0 ATS start with an average cover of 8.5 points per game. New head coach James Franklin is one of the best in recent college football history at covering the spread with a career-mark of 106-82-3 ATS (56%).
Louisville scored 41 points against SMU, but they benefited from three SMU turnovers and a defense that didn't offer much resistance against their ground attack. Keyjuan Brown ran for 163 yards on only 10 carries after totaling a combined 68 rushing yards in his first two games. Isaac Brown averaged a season-high 6.7 yards per carry against the Mustangs.
Neither of Louisville's top running backs figure to find that much room to operate again in Week 4, facing a Wake Forest run defense that held Purdue to 3.2 yards per carry and Miami to 4.6 yards per carry. An inability to generate explosive plays with their ground attack is going to put a lot of pressure on Lincoln Kienholz, which is not a recipe for offensive success against a top-tier Wake Forest secondary unit.
Playable to 57%.
Playable to 54%.
Miami allowed a season-worst pressure rate against Wake Forest in Week 3, which contributed to their second-half offensive struggles.
Louisville quarterback Lincoln Kienholz is coming off of a a clean performance against SMU, but he was pressured on only 6-of-25 dropbacks in that contest. Kienholz averaged only 8.3 yards per completion under pressure in that contest, compared to 11.1 yards per completion from a clean pocket. This season, Kienholz has only a 46.7% completion rate against pressure, versus a 69.5% completion rate from a clean pocket.
Wake Forest isn't going to allow Louisville's ground attack to gain 265 yards this weekend, which propelled the majority of their 41-point output against SMU. If the Cardinals can't give Kienholz time to make throws from a clean pocket, it's difficult to see their offense having much success.
Josh Heupel has one of the most QB-friendly offenses in the country, and it has helped freshman Faizon Brandon hit the ground running. The five-star recruit is Top 30 in QBR (76.8) and has led the Vols to 42+ points in all three games. Texas is obviously Tennessee's strongest opponent yet, but a veteran O-line and star running back (DeSean Bishop) are why I like the Vols team total Over at 26.5 or better.
Since Josh Heupel arrived in Knoxville in 2021, Tennessee is 40-28 to the Over. The Volunteers once again have a high-powered offense that's 19th in available yards percentage (61.8%) and fourth in EPA per rush. It also once again has a flawed defense. Steve Sarkisian and Arch Manning have the Longhorns' offense ranked eighth by SP+ and can take advantage of the Vols ' defense. The Over is a play at 56.5 or better.
Playable to 55%.
The strength of the Buckeyes roster is their offense. Facing unranked teams this season, Ohio State has scored 56 points and 59 points, respectively. They had 671 yards of total offense against Ball State in their season opener and 527 yards of total offense against Kent this past weekend. They have only punted four times on 26 offensive possessions in those contests.
Illinois doesn't have the defense to slow down Ohio State, but they do have a capable offense that should be productive enough to push this total over. Illinois has managed 17+ first downs, 332+ yards of total offense, and 27+ points in each of their first three games. They have had success moving the chains, in addition to generating explosive plays through the air.
Both of these offenses have the ability to score quickly. Neither defense has played at a high level early in 2026. Expect this game to feature a lot of scoring.
Playable to 55%.
Ohio State has outscored unranked opponents 115-6 in two games this year, but neither Ball State nor Kent State are anywhere near as talented as Illinois.
In the lone game that Ohio State has played against a power-four opponent in 2026, their defense struggled to get off of the field against Texas. If not for the Longhorns committing a few unforced errors in the first half of that game, Texas may have won that game easily.
The biggest concern for the Buckeyes heading into the new season was their defense, which lost Kayden McDonald, Caden Curry, Caleb Downs, and Davison Igbinosun to the NFL draft this past summer. Allowing 21 points in the 4th quarter to Texas raises significant questions as to how Ohio State's defense will hold up against better offenses in Big Ten conference play.
Sam Houston has covered their three games by an average of 19 points and they easily could've won their first two games as a double-digit underdog. This is a very under-the-radar team that took a lot of money on game day last week against a Texas Tech team that's 0-3 ATS and failing to meet expectations. This number is way too high.
If you’re worried Purdue could get a point or two in the first half, you can alt the Fighting Irish’s first-half team total, which is sitting around 23.5. But I think Notre Dame should have no problem winning by 17 in the first half on the road.
Purdue is already giving up over 20 points in the first half, and that came against far weaker competition.
This game should be all Notre Dame, but I don't expect the Fighting Irish to carry the total over 58.5 by themselves. Purdue will be hitting a brick wall against a Notre Dame defense allowing just a touchdown per game. The Boilermakers may average 37 points per game, but this is their first true test of the season and they are coming off a grueling stretch. Expect Notre Dame to control the game while Purdue struggles to move the ball, keeping the scoring below the total.
Wyoming gets a favorable home spot against Hawaii, with travel and an early island-time kickoff working against the Rainbow Warriors. While Hawaii is coming off a bye, traveling to the other side of the globe and playing at 9 a.m. body time presents a unique challenge. Meanwhile, Wyoming has shown a balanced offense with a slight lean toward the run, which should be the Cowboys’ preferred method of attack against a Hawaii rush defense that ranks 93rd in opponent rush yards per game and 97th in opponent yards per rush. With Wyoming averaging nearly five yards per carry, the Cowboys can secure a home win.
New Mexico has long dominated the Rio Grande Rivalry, and that should continue this year. In his first season leading the Lobos last year, Jason Eck beat their rival by 18. And his defense should help him do similar damage this year (I like New Mexico up to -16.5). New Mexico's defense is fourth in the country in havoc rate (25.9%).
Oklahoma has covered the first-half spread in four of its last five road games and Georgia's defense wears the Sooners down as the game goes on. UGA might need to adjust to by far its toughest defensive test so far this season.
Oklahoma's defense ranks sixth in points per play allowed and Georgia's defense has the fifth-most continuity from last year's team, according to ESPN's Bill Connelly. Plus, offensive injuries for both teams give me more confidence in these defenses.
This is a natural fit given the rest of my analysis. The Rebels have the best quarterback in the country, and I have real questions about the Florida defense given the metrics they've posted this season.
Most books have this a touch higher, with a key number at 28.5, which highlights the value here. There is no doubt the Swamp will be rocking and will create an atmosphere conducive to mistakes. However, the Rebels' ability to run the ball well and stay on schedule can reduce some of that impact before Chambliss settles in and takes over in winning time, just as we've seen happen so often.
I think there's a good chance this turns into a shootout, and that's a situation I'd favor Ole Miss in. The Gators' defensive numbers are pretty eye-opening, especially considering the schedule outside of Auburn: 126th nationally in EPA allowed per rush, 83rd nationally in EPA allowed per pass. Lead back Kewan Lacy is questionable to go in this matchup, but even if he can't play, the Rebels have suitable alternatives in the backfield to attack a porous rush defense (outside of what the QB can do). You may get a better number come kickoff, as sharp money has piled in on Florida, but sometimes squares win too.
Boise State is a tough matchup for Western Michigan. WMU wants to run the ball (40 attempts per game), and Boise State has one of the best run defenses in the G6, ranking Top 50 in EPA per rush. With its run game set to gash WMU's defense, Boise State can cover -7.5 or better on the road.
The Wolverines are slow starters, averaging just 4.7 first-quarter points per game (tied for 76th nationally), while the Hawkeyes score 10.0 first-quarter points per game (10th). Iowa's defense is elite vs. the run and Michigan's ground game is meh. This should help the Hawkeyes get good field position early and often.
The Hawkeyes have the best scoring defense in the country and are 2-11 Ove/Under as a road underdog since 2021. These are two Under teams that like to win in the trenches, and both quarterbacks have below-average passer ratings in the Big Ten.
Vanderbilt is coming off a wild Week 3 win, while Auburn enters Week 4 after a 44-39 loss to Florida. The Tigers moved the ball well but were held back by seven sacks, an issue that should be cleaned up against a Vanderbilt defense that recorded just one sack last week. I’m expecting Auburn’s coaching staff and players to bounce back against a Commodores team coming off an emotional win. Vanderbilt’s miracle finish was great, but now comes the letdown. After what happened to NC State last week, this feels like the perfect spot to get even.
Nebraska has yet to face a legitimate test this season, taking on Bowling Green, Ohio and North Dakota through the first three weeks. Now, the Cornhuskers travel to face a Michigan State team coming off a battle with No. 3 Notre Dame. Sure, the Spartans have also faced Toledo and Eastern Michigan, but they at least endured a major step up in competition last week. Michigan State held the Fighting Irish under 30 points despite managing just 167 total yards. If the Spartans can carry that experience into Saturday and clean up their mistakes, I believe they can keep this game competitive at home against Nebraska.
Bowling Green might be the worst team in the country this season. Eddie George's program is 0-3 ATS and has been outscored 131-27. Brian Hartline's South Florida squad has an offense that's Top 10 in points per opportunity and 32nd in EPS per pass. The Bulls can cover up to -20.5.
For both teams, the fourth quarter has been the least productive quarter so far this season. It’s the only quarter where Wisconsin hasn’t scored 20 total points this season, and the combined point total for the fourth is the lowest for the Badgers.
Penn State has scored 13 fewer points in the fourth than any other quarter and the combined point total is also the lowest in the fourth for the Nittany Lions. And that includes two garbage-time touchdowns opponents scored against Penn State backups.
Penn State enters Week 4 undefeated, but the Nittany Lions have yet to face a meaningful challenge. That changes against Wisconsin, which already tested itself against Notre Dame and showed it can move the ball against a top-ranked opponent. While the Badgers ultimately fell short, their performance provided valuable experience that Penn State has not yet gained this season. With the Nittany Lions still weeks away from their first ranked matchup, there is a concern that the lack of competition could catch up with them. Wisconsin presents an opportunity for Penn State to finally face some resistance, making the Badgers an intriguing side this week.
James Madison's offense has been a force. The Dukes are 23rd in offensive success rate (50.5%) and 3-0 ATS as a result. Old Dominion is in a rebuild and sits at 0-3 ATS with an offense that's 128th in available yards percentage (29.4%). JMU can cover -6.5 or better.
Considering the struggles of both pass attacks, I'm expecting these coaches to ease their offenses into the game. The Aggies score 11.0 more points per game in the first half, and the Tigers score 8.0 more points per game in the first half.
Defense is the better unit for the Aggies and Tigers. Both have better defensive conversion rates on third down and in the red zone. According to GameOnPaper.com, both offenses have a below-average explosive play rate. Both pass rushes have an edge over the opponent's pass protection.
USC has played three Group of Six teams and a Rutgers program that lost to UMass. The Trojans are 1-3 ATS and allowed Rutgers to hang around last week because their defense couldn't stop the Scarlet Knights. Even with Oregon losing to Oklahoma State and dealing with injuries, the Ducks should score 35+ points against USC. Gary Patterson's defense is ranked 107th in EPA per rush and 90th in EPA per pass. Dante Moore and Co. just had a get-right game against Portland State (84-0 win) and can win a shootout with the Trojans.
I know, I know. Any and all notes about Oregon's early-season struggles are taken and considered, but I have simply not seen anything to consider trusting USC's defense against a team with this much talent. The Trojans just gave up 460 yards on 6.7 yards per play to Rutgers, and that's only an appetizer for what an angry Dan Lanning will have in store for them this weekend. It's an unexpected watershed moment for the Ducks, and I suspect they'll answer the call.
NC State enters Saturday looking to bounce back after last week’s brutal ending against Virginia. While the Wolfpack has plenty to clean up, it has faced a far tougher schedule than App State, which is coming off wins over Maine, East Carolina and Charlotte. NC State has already played Virginia and Vanderbilt, while this will be App State’s first Power Four opponent. The Wolfpack also crushed Richmond 73-0 in its last matchup against a non-Power Four team, covering as a 33.5-point favorite. At 1-2, NC State can’t afford to look ahead to Louisville. Expect the Pack to clean up the slop.
Bulldogs QB Kamario Taylor has been a national darling and for good reason, but this Tigers defense is well-equipped to make him earn scores on consistent drives rather than explosive ones. On the other side, QB Austin Simmons has opened with eight touchdown passes and one interception, and Missouri has already won on the road at Kansas.
Mississippi State’s home starts are a clear angle here. The Bulldogs have hit the first-quarter total Over in five of their last six home games, and the current number asks for only 14 points. That trend fits a team that has repeatedly created explosive plays early. Missouri does not need to win the quarter for this to cash, because one scoring drive from the Tigers plus a normal Mississippi State opening series is enough.
Every team to have played Stanford has come away with at least 27 points. The Tree are surrendering 35.7 ppg, and the advanced metrics (ahem, 133rd in EPA per play allowed on standard downs) are even worse.
Stanford's offense isn't trustworthy for an Over until proven otherwise. It scored six points against Miami and seven points against Duke. Quarterback Davis Warren is averaging just 6.3 yards per attempt, and the line in front of him can't protect (126th in PFF's pass-blocking grade)
Play Minnesota at anything over a touchdown. The Huskies' offense hasn't been efficient enough (75th in EPA per play) to expect a wide margin.
The Gophers rank 116th in snaps per minute (29.5) and will want to grind this game to a halt on the road, and the Huskies (84th in snaps per minute) will be happy to oblige. Neither offense is efficient enough or explosive enough to compensate for the slow tempo.
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The table above lets you know how profitable and helpful our sports betting computer picks have been across the last 100 college football games played. Our NCAAF computer picks use expert data to review odds and generate moneyline, spread, and total bets for every game throughout the season.
Listed in the table are unit details, which show the total profit or loss based on a bettor placing $100 on each of the last 100 college football picks made by the computer, on both the opening and closing lines.
Take advantage of these free college football picks before you wager any money at sportsbooks.
As human beings, we're bound to be biased with our picks and potentially fall into the trap of swinging with the public. With advanced stats growing in popularity and getting harder to track, college football computer predictions are starting to become more relied on.
Betting on a moneyline simply means you're picking the outright winner of the game, regardless of the scoring margin or total. If the team you choose wins, then your bet hits. Here's what it will look like over at your favorite sportsbook:
| Team | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Alabama Crimson Tide | -120 |
| Missouri Tigers | +150 |
In this case, Alabama is favored to win the game as its moneyline odds have a minus sign (-) in front of the number. The favorites will have the minus sign present, and the underdogs will have a plus sign (+). Easy, right?
Betting the spread gives your bet a bit more breathing room. Here, you don't need to sweat out a team to win. Instead, you can wager on the point differential on the scoreboard.
Betting on the spread is a good idea when the moneyline profits aren't enticing. There's no point betting on Alabama as a heavy -1500 favorite over Missouri. But taking Missouri to keep the scoring margin within a certain frame will get you more bang for your buck.
| Team | Spread |
|---|---|
| Alabama Crimson Tide | -24.5 (-105) |
| Missouri Tigers | +24.5 (-115) |
In this example, the Tide are favored to dominate their game against Missouri, outperforming them by at least 24.5 points.
If Alabama does win by more than 25 points, that would mean the Crimson Tide covered the spread. But if the Tide won by just 20 points, then that would mean the Tigers "covered the spread" instead.
If you think the outcome of a game could flip in either direction, then an Over/Under is the way to go. This bet relies on the combined score from both teams and whether it goes Over or Under the point total listed at sportsbooks. Then, who cares who wins?
| Team | Total |
|---|---|
| Alabama Crimson Tide | O 52.5 (-110) |
| Missouri Tigers | U 52.5 (-110) |
In this example, oddsmakers have set the total score for the game at 52.5 points. The choice is now up to you. If you think the Tide and Tigers will score a combined total of more than 52.5 points, 53 points or more, then pick the Over. If you're thinking otherwise, then bet the Under, and the bet will hit if they score fewer than 52.5 points.
If the set number was a whole number like 52 points and the two teams score exactly that amount, then it is considered a push and you'd get your money back.
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