NBA Picks

The 26-year-old has hit the Over in points in seven of 11 appearances in March, and he has a history of success in 2025-26 against the Pacers. Across three meetings, Garland is averaging 20.3 points per contest.

The Los Angeles Clippers are listed as 8.5-point favorites on Friday, but I see clear value on that number—I make it closer to -11.5 against the Pacers. The matchup strongly favors the Clippers, starting with their five-out offense and elite floor spacing. With players like John Collins and Brook Lopez stretching the floor, Indiana’s defensive structure gets pulled apart. That’s especially problematic for Jay Huff, who’s forced to defend on the perimeter, leaving the paint unprotected and exposing the Pacers at the rim. Once the lane opens up, it creates easy opportunities for players like Darius Garland and Kawhi Leonard to attack off the dribble and score efficiently in isolation. The market seems to be overreacting to the win against the Magic—and the Pacers backdoor cover against the Lakers—giving the Pacers more respect than they deserve in this spot. 

Miami errupted from beyond the arc in Wednesday's win at Cleveland, hitting 18 triples. The Heat also buckled down on defense, playing with a healthy rotation for just the second time in a month. I don't see Miami stay hot from long range and Cleveland could have center Jarrett Allen back tonight, which allows the perimeter defense to play up on shooters knowing a shot blocker is behind them. With both teams still fighting for playoff positioning, this game takes on a postseason-like intensity and finishes below the total.

Jarrett Allen has totaled 20.1 points per game over the last 15 games, 4.9 more than he's totaled overall this season.. The Cavaliers have been the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.. The Heat have played at the most up-tempo pace in the NBA this year, which should increase plays for the Cavaliers.

Boston just came off a statement win over OKC so this screams letdown spot. With Jaylen Brown a game-time decision, there’s added uncertainty. Atlanta thrives in chaos, and if they push pace, this turns into their kind of game. Grab Hawks +4.5 and trust the tempo to keep it tight.

The Celtics check in as the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 15 games.. The Boston Celtics have played at the least up-tempo tempo in the league this year.

This matchup heavily favors Houston, starting with Alperen Sengun against Olivier-Maxence Prosper at center. At 6'11" vs. 6'8", it’s a clear size and strength advantage, and the Rockets should look to establish Sengun early and often inside. Memphis’ pace also works in Houston’s favor. The Grizzlies like to push the tempo, but that plays right into the hands of the Rockets—especially for Amen Thompson, who thrives in transition and adds another layer to their offense in an up-tempo game. From a game script standpoint, Memphis being on the front end of a back-to-back only adds to the blowout risk. They’re already limiting minutes, and if things get out of hand, there’s even more incentive to pull starters early. All signs point to a strong Houston performance—I make this line closer to -15.5.

In terms of shots from behind the three-point arc, the most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Grizzlies.. The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the 5th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 25 games.. The Memphis Grizzlies will likely see a spike in opportunities today from squaring off against the 7th-speediest pace away offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Rockets).

OKC is a Top 5 scoring team in the NBA, that’s also allowed just 106.3 points per game in their last 13.

The Thunder have played at the 8th-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 15 games with the home court advantage, which ought to lead to decreased possessions for the Chicago Bulls.. Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, but the Bulls grade out 5thworst in in the league away from home with a mere 10.1 offensive rebounds per game this year.

Jakob Poeltl has put up 14.2 points per game over the last 5 games, 3.8 higher than he's put up over the course of the season.. The Toronto Raptors have been the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

When it comes to threes, the New Orleans Pelicans's lackluster 11.3 converted threes per game comes in as the 5th-lowest in the NBA this year.. The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 6th-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.. The Pelicans will likely suffer a drop-off in opportunities today from being pitted against the 6th-most lethargic pace-of-play home offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Raptors).

The Denver Nuggets are trading as 18-point favorites, but I make the number closer to -22 against the Jazz on Friday. The matchup itself is extremely lopsided, starting with Nikola Jokic going up against Kyle Filipowski in the paint. That’s one of the biggest mismatches you’ll see, and it’s a spot where Denver should be able to generate offense at will. Beyond the starters, Denver’s health is a major factor. When you’re laying a number this large, bench production becomes critical, and the Nuggets are in a great position there. With a fully healthy rotation, players like Peyton Watson, Bruce Brown, and Tim Hardaway Jr. should be able to come in and maintain—or even extend—the lead. On the other side, Utah is on the front end of a back-to-back, which only adds to the risk of this game getting out of hand early. When you combine the matchup, depth, and scheduling spot, this spread still feels too low.

In terms of shooting, the Denver Nuggets's stellar 121.2 points per game places best in the NBA this year.. The 7th-quickest pace team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Nuggets.. The Utah Jazz have played at the fastest tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games away from their home stadium, which ought to raise opportunities for the Denver Nuggets.

The matchup vs. the Portland Trail Blazers is a challenging one for 3-pointers; opposing starting PGs have shot for the 3rd-lowest three rate in the NBA this year (29.8%).. The Mavericks check in as the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

As it relates to scoring, the Trail Blazers's feeble 45.4% field goal percentage measures as the 2nd-weakest in the league this year.

Over his last 12 games, Gui Santos has averaged 16.5 points, going for 16+ seven times and exactly 15 points once more. Santos has scored at least 16 in two straight games, including his career-high 31-point eruption against the Nets on Wednesday.

The Golden State Warriors have played at the 7th-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games, which should reduce opportunities for the Wizards.. The Wizards check in as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

With the lowly Nets in town and the Lakers laying -16.5, Luka Doncic could sit out after playing major minutes this month. Without Luka, LeBron James slides into a primary ball-handling role and with those touches comes a boost in potential assists. James has dished out 12, 10, 10 and eight assists the last four games without Doncic and his projections already sit north of seven assists - with Luka in the lineup. I like the value of grabbing this now before official news on Luka comes out.

The 4th-least up-tempo pace team in the NBA this year has been the Nets.. The Brooklyn Nets will likely see a decline in plays in this contest from facing the 9th-most sluggish pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Lakers).. Offensive rebounds save possession and bring about bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Brooklyn Nets rank 1stworst in in the NBA away from their home court with only 6.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.