MLB Picks

The Houston Astros have struggled to put together ceiling offensive performances, scoring four runs or fewer in eight of their last 10 games.

It’s been a similar story for the Detroit Tigers. They plated just 28 runs over the last nine games (3.11 per), eight of which came Under the pre-game total.

The bullpens are also in great shape, and each team sits Top-3 in bullpen FIP during the month of June.

Bet the Under to -125.

Zac Gallen draws a tough spot and is firmly in play for a fade given his season-long struggles and poor underlying profile. He has allowed a 6.75 ERA in first inning situations and has been consistently vulnerable, with opposing hitters posting a .362 average, .580 slugging, and .972 OPS across his starts. His Batters-Box ratings also reflect bottom tier performance, with weak marks across ISO, wOBA, hard contact, and strikeout metrics. On the road he has been even worse, carrying a 7.68 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, and elevated hard contact and barrel rates. Tampa Bay’s offense is hot, making this matchup even tougher.

Side note, sprinkle Manzardo to hit a home run and back Bazzana as well. Thank me later.

Getting nearly even money on a hitter with a .300 batting average, .519 SLG, .886 OPS, 58% hard hit rate, and a 16% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right handed pitching is simply too good to pass up.

On the other side, Luis Castillo has been getting torched by left handed hitters on the road, allowing a 71.4% elevation rate and a 43.7% hard hit rate.

At this price, it is very tough to stay away.

Payton Tolle has walked 10.8% of hitters across varied with a hard-hit rate over 38%. I expect him to be slightly better than his counterpart because of his strikeout stuff but that doesn't mean it will come without any struggle. A hard-hit issue against this New York Yankees lineup is a problem, even without Aaron Judge, as they've ranked in the top five of barrel rate and hard-hit rate league-wide all season. Play to 9.

The Chicago White Sox boast a powerful attack that will see a steady stream of relievers from a bullpen sitting second last in HR/FB this season.

The Kansas City Royals are in a good spot themselves. They have an in-form offense that has hit .272 against righties in June. 

White Sox opener David Sandlin has allowed 11 runs over 7.1 innings of work in June, and more damage should be coming his way here.

Bet to -120.

Jacob Misiorowski has allowed 0.33 runs per start since May 1, making it impossible for any offense to get going in the slightest.

He faced the Chicago Cubs during that stretch and pitched six innings of shutout ball while striking out eight batters. Predictably, that game went Under 7.5 runs.

I don’t see the Cubs scoring more than a run or two here, which puts a lot of pressure on the Milwaukee Brewers to score in bulk.

Bet the Under to -140.

Sugano versus Taj Bradley sets up as a strong YRFI look with both offenses carrying legitimate early inning upside. This matchup features a combined eight elite rated hitters and six strong bats per Batters-Box current season ratings, giving both lineups real firepower at the top. On the pitching side, neither arm inspires much confidence, as both sit near the bottom of the slate with poor matchup profiles across ISO, wOBA, hard contact, and ground ball rates. With both offenses trending well over the last few games and soft contact suppression from either starter, the -121 price on early runs looks playable.

I am a huge advocate for paying a little juice on hits props, and Owen Caissie to record a hit this evening is a go in my book at anything below -170. The young slugger owns 74% arsenal coverage against Michael McGreevy while producing a 27.8% barrel rate and .430 wOBA over his last 30 plate appearances against right handed pitching.

On the other side, the Cardinals right hander owns a 5.67 xERA and just a 10% strikeout rate over the last 60 left handed batters he has faced. During that stretch, lefties have posted a .358 xBA, .569 xSLG, and .382 xwOBA against him. This is a spot where I am more than willing to lay a little extra juice.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.