MLB Picks

Jake Irvin might be the best arm to fade on Wednesday. He led all starters in home runs allowed and HR/9 last year and is trending that way again. Almost every Pittsburgh Pirates bat projects as +EV, but I’m landing on cleanup hitter Ryan O'Hearn at a big +730. Oneil Cruz still projects as the top option at +390, but I want a little more meat on the bone in a matchup where Pittsburgh could leave the yard multiple times. The fair price on O’Hearn sits closer to +600, and he brings some of the best barrel rates on the team. A round robin with O'Hearn, Cruz, and Brandon Lowe at +420 might be the best way to attack this spot, with double-digit winds and strong-hitting temperatures lining up again today.

With 83-degree heat and wind blowing out, this is prime carry weather. The San Francisco Giants starter has already allowed 16 hits in 14.2 innings, basically a hit per frame. De La Cruz is swinging it well and needs just one gap shot or one big swing to cash this plus-money total bases prop.

Tigers RHP Flaherty has fanned six batters in each of his last two starts and faces a Kansas City lineup that has struggled to produce away from home. The Royals are driving in an average of just two runs per road game – tied for lowest in the majors – while hitting a collective .171 BA. That’s pumped out a 1-6 Over/Under record on the road.

The Atlanta Braves are listed as -166 favorites on FanDuel for Wednesday’s matchup, but that price isn’t short enough—I make them closer to -190, which is why I’m hitting the button. Chris Paddack is on the mound for the Marlins, and it’s hard to see him getting through this Braves lineup multiple times. He relies heavily on his four-seam fastball at the top of the zone, which is a dangerous approach against hitters like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson, who have built careers on punishing high fastballs. With several left-handed bats in strong form—Dominic Smith and Drake Baldwin, to name a couple—Paddack will need to locate his circle change effectively. If he can’t, he’s in for a long night against a lineup that won’t let him get away with simply leaning on his fastball.

This could be the highest-scoring game on the slate, with two questionable starters and a pair of struggling bullpens. Alvarez may be facing a soft-tossing lefty in Jose Quintana, who is coming off an injury, but he has reverse splits and has crushed southpaws to a 1.094 OPS since 2024.
The Colorado Rockies bullpen was forced in early last night after just eight outs, and not every arm will be available today. Combined, these two bullpens have five losses over the last seven days and 12 on the season.
This game could get loose, and I’m happy to back the best hitter in the series at a slightly discounted price due to the lefty-lefty matchup.

If you’re going to give me an edge on a player who already has five home runs this season, playing in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball with favorable weather conditions—yeah, I’m taking it. Shea Langeliers is listed at +407, but I make it closer to +290 to hit a home run on Wednesday against the Texas Rangers. Kumar Rocker has been leaning heavily on his sinker this season, but unlike most sinkers that generate ground balls, his has a unique profile that leads to more fly balls. Langeliers, meanwhile, thrives on low pitches, and if that sinker lacks late movement, his launch angle could send it straight into the seats.

Both Seattle and San Diego stand to have success at the dish tonight, with opposing starters Randy Vasquez and Emerson Hancock off to unsustainably good starts. The Mariners rank 10th in wOBA and seventh in ISO against right-handed pitchers since the beginning of last season, and Vasquez has served up a 46.7 hard-hit rate through three 2026 starts, so I'm expecting Seattle to do the heavy lifting for this Over tonight.

Dodgers starter Shoehi Ohtani has been pitching at an elite level. He has allowed just five hits and one run (none earned) through 12 innings this year. He'll shut down a Mets lineup that has been beyond terrible since losing Juan Soto to an injury. The Mets have an OPS of just .473 over the last seven days with Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, and Francisco Lindor all struggling to make contact. Meanwhile, Mets starter Clay Holmes has been solid this season (1.50 ERA, 3.59 xERA), and both teams have strong bullpens that rank in the top 8 of the majors in ERA and WHIP.