Rivals collide tonight at Citi Field as the Philadelphia Phillies visit the New York Mets.
With the flourishing Zack Wheeler on the hill, my Phillies vs Mets predictions are eyeing the visitors to take the series opener.
Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, June 26.
Who will win Phillies vs Mets today: Phillies -1.5 (+105)
The Philadelphia Phillies enter this series having won five of their last six, and they've covered the run line in four of those games. Zack Wheeler gets the ball tonight, and he owns an impressive 2.71 xERA across his last five appearances.
During that span, Wheeler has held opponents to a 32.4% hard hit rate, and a solid 44.6% ground ball rate. The veteran is inducing a lot of weak contact, and he's up against one of the most inconsistent lineups in baseball.
The New York Mets haven't yet announced who will start, but it's likely to be a bullpen game. That's not ideal, considering they own a 41% hard hit rate over the last week.
I'll play this pick up to -120.
COVERS INTEL: The Phillies are jumping on everything right now, with a 45.6% hard hit rate in their previous six contests. That's compared to a 40.4% mark in the last month. 
Phillies vs Mets Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 runs (+101)
The Philadelphia Phillies have been the hottest offense in baseball lately, scoring 51 runs over their last six games while slugging 14 home runs. Their .262 ISO and 155 wRC+ during that stretch back up the production.
Zack Wheeler should keep New York's offense in check, but the Phillies have a favorable matchup against a Mets bullpen allowing 1.87 home runs per nine innings over the last week. Even if the Mets contribute only a couple of runs, Philadelphia has more than enough firepower to push this game beyond the total.
I'll play this pick up to -130.
- ML/RL bets: 31-26, +2.65 units
- Over/Under bets: 32-24, +3.53 units
Phillies vs Mets weather
Conditions at Citi Field should be slightly favorable for hitters tonight. Temperatures around 81°F and warm summer air could help the ball carry a bit better, while light 8.1 mph winds aren't expected to have much impact. Overall, the weather provides a modest boost to offense without dramatically changing the matchup.
Phillies vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: Phillies -150 | Mets +144
- Run line: Phillies -1.5 (+108) | Mets +1.5 (-113)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+104) | Under 8.5 (-113)
Phillies vs Mets trend
The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+6.65 Units / 36% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mets.
How to watch Phillies vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Flushing, Queens |
| Date | Friday, June 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Zack Wheeler (7-1, 2.11 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | TBD (Y-Y, X.XX ERA) |
Phillies vs Mets latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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