We have a ton of value to attack this evening, so here are my favorite MLB player props for June 26.
Kyle Manzardo and TJ Rumfield will lead the way on Friday night.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Kyle Manzardo |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | -101 |
 TJ Rumfield |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | -109 |
 Owen Caissie |
Over 0.5 hits | -161 |
Kyle Manzardo Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-101)
Getting nearly even money on a hitter batting .300 with a .519 SLG, .886 OPS, 58% hard-hit rate, and a 16% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching is simply too good to pass up.
Kyle Manzardo has been seeing the ball extremely well as of late, and tonight he draws Seattle Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo. Manzardo owns nearly 82% arsenal coverage against his below average pitch mix.
Castillo has been getting torched by left-handed hitters on the road, allowing a 71.4% elevation rate and a 43.7% hard-hit rate. Over the last 60 lefties he's faced, opponents have generated a 48% hard-hit rate, 12% barrel rate, and a 66% elevation rate. They have also posted a .490 xSLG and .357 xwOBA during that stretch.
If you're looking for a plus-money look, pair Manzardo and Travis Bazzana to each record a hit. I think both of these guys are in outstanding spots tonight.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CLEG, SEAM
TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-109)
A very tough price to overlook.
Colorado Rockies first baseman TJ Rumfield not only owns an elite rating, but also has 76% arsenal coverage against Minnesota Twins right-hander Taj Bradley.
Rumfield has been on fire lately, batting .327 with a .692 SLG, 1.092 OPS, .365 ISO, and just a 13% strikeout rate over his last 60 at bats against right-handed pitching.
Bradley, on the other hand, has been getting lit up by left-handed hitters all season. Over the last 30 lefties he has faced, he has allowed a 60% hard-hit rate, 25% barrel rate, and 75% elevation rate.
Looking at his last three starts overall, Bradley owns a 6.19 xERA while allowing a 54% hard-hit rate and 16% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
I think the young Pebble and the rest of the Rockies are in a great spot tonight against a pitcher who consistently gives up loud contact. I would have gladly paid -120 for this prop, so make sure to shop around and grab the best number you can find.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MNNT, COLR
Owen Caissie Over 0.5 hits (-161)
The Miami Marlins have a guy near the bottom of their lineup named Owen Caissie who has been on an absolute tear. Tonight, he draws St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Michael McGreevy, and the young slugger owns 74% arsenal coverage against his entire pitch mix.
Over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Caissie has produced a 55.6% hard-hit rate, 27.8% barrel rate, .430 wOBA, .679 SLG, and a 1.012 OPS.
On the other side, McGreevy owns a 5.67 xERA and just a 10% strikeout rate over the last 60 left-handed batters he has faced. During that stretch, lefties have posted a .358 xBA, .569 xSLG, and .382 xwOBA against him.
This is a spot where I am more than willing to lay a little extra juice. Caissie to record a hit this evening is a go in my book at anything below -170.
If you're looking for a little more value, his Over 1.5 total bases is a pretty sexy number. Me? I am in the juice-paying business, so I do not mind laying a little extra for the higher floor.
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CARD, MIAM
- Prop picks: 241-444, -6.6 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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