I like the underdog Boston Red Sox to make it two out of two when they meet up with the New York Yankees tonight as +101 home underdogs.
They took the series opener last night and now see a pitcher who is both exploitable and familiar to them.
Here are my Yankees vs Red Sox predictions and MLB picks for Friday, June 26.
Who will win Yankees vs Red Sox today: Red Sox moneyline (+101)
Will Warren is a pitcher I've successfully faded all season, and there's reason to do the same here. I'd play the Boston Red Sox down to -108.
The issue with Warren has always been that when he's not getting strikeouts, his average hard-hit rate gets exploited by his high-velocity stuff. He also generates whiffs mostly in the zone, pairing a 24% strikeout rate with a bottom-30 percentile chase rate.
The more often you see him, the more success you have. Boston ranks fifth in MLB in doubles, gap-to-gap power that benefits from Fenway Park
COVERS INTEL: Payton Tolle posted a 39% whiff rate on his four-seamer between the majors and minors in 2025.
Yankees vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-116)
I like the Over.
Payton Tolle has walked 10.8% of hitters across varied with a hard-hit rate over 38%. I expect him to be slightly better than his counterpart because of his strikeout stuff, but that doesn't mean it will come without any struggle.
A hard-hit issue against this New York Yankees lineup is a problem, even without Aaron Judge, as they've ranked in the top five of barrel rate and hard-hit rate league-wide all season. Play to 9.
- ML/RL bets: 30-28, +4.67 units
- Over/Under bets: 35-24, +14.77 units
Yankees vs Red Sox weather
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
- Moneyline: Yankees -105 | Red Sox +104
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 | Red Sox +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Yankees vs Red Sox trend
The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.25 Units / 48% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Yankees vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Friday, June 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, NESN |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (7-2, 3.45 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Payton Tolle (3-5, 3.08 ERA) |
Yankees vs Red Sox latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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