It felt like Senegal had landed in the "Group of Death" in the 2026 World Cup bracket, and they’ll be fighting for their lives today in their final Group I outing against Iraq.
Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET on FS1.
The Lions of Teranga enter as prohibitive -376 favorites in the World Cup odds. Despite some nightmare moments in their recent loss to Norway, I’m not giving up on Sadio Mane & Co. just yet.
My Senegal vs. Iraq predictions and World Cup picks are signaling one-way traffic in Toronto on Friday, June 26.
TOP PICK
Who will win Senegal vs Iraq: Senegal -1.5 (-148)
The deck is stacked against Senegal with no points and a -3 goal difference after two Group I fixtures, but a big win over Iraq could still send the Lions of Teranga into the Round of 32. That’s exactly what I’m expecting at Toronto Stadium on Friday.
There’s no Kylian Mbappe or Erling Haaland to torment Senegal in this matchup, and that should pave the way for Pape Thiaw to shift his 4-2-3-1 formation into a more dangerous 4-3-3 setup. In truth, the Lions of Teranga have no choice but to hit the gas pedal early.
The nature of the race to qualify as one of the best third-placed teams means they can’t sit back on a narrow lead either, and there were encouraging signs in the latter stages on Monday, with Ismaila Sarr’s double almost rescuing his team against Norway.
Meanwhile, Iraq have lost three straight games by a margin of 2+ goals, and they didn’t register a shot on target last time out against France. Injury doubts over the Iraqis’ key striker Aymen Hussein just add to the case for a comfortable Senegal victory.
This bet is playable up to -160.
Senegal vs Iraq Over/Under pick: Over 3.5 (+134)
Senegal have nailed the Over on this lofty O/U line in both of their Group I contests, and I’m going back to the well with this pick.
A vulnerable Iraq defense could be just the medicine to get Sadio Mane’s tournament off the ground, and the underdogs don’t have the pace defensively to handle Senegal’s direct attack. The Iraqis haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their past four games, and I don’t see them snapping that streak here.
I don’t expect either team to sit back defensively in a match where only a win will keep their knockout round hopes alive, and the Lions of Teranga back line had some howlers of their own against Norway, including a giveaway for the opening goal.
Most of all, this is a wager on Senegal thriving against a weaker opponent after tough tests in their opening fixtures. They had 58% of the possession against the Norwegians, and a similar share of the ball should keep this Over in play on Friday.
Senegal vs Iraq goal scorer pick: Sadio Mane (+110)
It’s been a slow start for Mane, but I don’t see Senegal’s all-time leading scorer going out with a whimper against an overmatched Iraq defense that’s already conceded seven goals at this tournament.
Mane had 62 touches against Norway on Monday without registering a shot on goal, so look for the Lions of Teranga to prioritize getting the ball to their star man in more advanced positions in this Group I finale.
He’ll have license to roam inside from the left wing, and it’s tough to see Senegal bagging a free-scoring win without a Mane masterpiece. I’m grabbing this price for the former Liverpool man to add to his impressive haul of 55 international goals.
See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.
Senegal vs Iraq projected lineup
Senegal (4-3-3): Diaw; Diatta, Koulibaly, Niakhate, Diouf; Camara, I Gueye, P Gueye; Sarr, Jackson, Mane.
Iraq (4-3-3): Basil; Ali, Tahseen, Hashem, Doski; Ismail, Al-Ammari, Iqbal; Qasem, Al-Hamadi, Bayesh.
Senegal vs Iraq injuries
Senegal: Edouard Mendy GK (Out).
Iraq: Aymen Hussein ST (Questionable).
Senegal vs Iraq weather
The forecast calls for partly cloudy conditions in Toronto on Friday, with temperatures in the low 70s and a chance of showers.
Senegal vs Iraq odds today
| Senegal | Iraq | |
|---|---|---|
| -376 | Moneyline | +669 |
| +1150 | Draw | +1150 |
| Over 2.5 (-178) | Total | Under 2.5 (+170) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Senegal vs Iraq
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | BMO Field, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Friday, June 26, 2026 |
| Time | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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