The final round of group-stage matches continues Thursday as Groups D, E, and F take center stage in the race to reach the World Cup knockout rounds.
While some teams have already secured their place in the Round of 32, others still have work to do. Qualification, group titles, and favorable knockout-round matchups remain up for grabs, creating a slate where motivation and game state matter just as much as talent.
Below, we break down the World Cup knockout round scenarios for Thursday's matches, along with key angles to keep in mind.
For more tournament coverage, check out our World Cup picks, World Cup odds, and updated World Cup bracket.
World Cup qualification odds
| Matchup |  Probability |
American Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Paraguay to qualify from Group D |
86% | -614 |
 Australia to qualify from Group D |
91% | -1011 |
 Ecuador to qualify from Group E |
27% | +270 |
 Netherlands to win Group F |
78% | -355 |
 Japan to win Group F |
20% | +400 |
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World Cup group stage scenarios for Thursday, June 25
Thursday's schedule features the final matches in Groups D, E, and F. The top two teams from each group advance automatically, while the eight best third-place teams also move on to the Round of 32.
That means not every team needs to win to survive, but the difference between first, second, and third can dramatically alter a team's path through the knockout bracket.
Which World Cup teams can qualify on Thursday?
- Australia
- Paraguay
- Ivory Coast
- Ecuador
- Curacao
- Japan
- Sweden
World Cup Group D scenarios: United States, Paraguay, Australia, Turkey
Group D Standings
| TEAM | GP | PTS | GF | GA | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 USA |
2 | 6 | 6 | 1 | +5 |
| Australia |
2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Paraguay |
2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 |
 Turkey |
2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 |
The United States has already handled its business.
After following up its opening win over Paraguay with a 2-0 victory over Australia, the Americans have qualified for the knockout rounds and locked up first place in Group D.
That puts the United States into a Round of 32 matchup against a third-place team from Group B, E, F, I, or J. It also means Turkey has been eliminated.
The real battle is for second place. Australia remains in a strong position, as a win or draw against Paraguay would guarantee qualification. Paraguay needs to beat Australia to secure a top-two finish, though it could still have a path through as one of the tournament's best third-place teams.
In the Round of 32, the Group D winner will face a third-place team, while the runner-up will face the runner-up from Group G.
Turkey vs USA
Thursday, June 25 at 10 p.m. ET
What's at stake
- The United States has already qualified and won Group D
- Turkey has been eliminated
- The Americans are locked into a Round of 32 matchup against a third-place team
- Pride, rotation, and knockout-round preparation are the biggest factors
Key angle
This is one of the more difficult matches to handicap from a motivation standpoint.
The United States has already accomplished its group-stage mission and could prioritize squad management ahead of the knockout rounds. Turkey is out, but eliminated teams can be dangerous when the pressure is gone and the opponent has little incentive to push for 90 minutes.
Prediction: Turkey team total Over 0.5 (-213 at Kalshi)
Paraguay vs Australia
Thursday, June 25 at 10 p.m. ET
What's at stake
- Australia qualifies with a win or draw
- Paraguay needs a victory to guarantee a top-two finish
- Paraguay could still advance as a best third-place team
- The Group D runner-up will face the Group G runner-up in the Round of 32
Key angle
This is the match that carries the real Group D drama.
Australia can afford to manage the game and protect a result, while Paraguay has to be the more aggressive side. That should shape the entire tactical setup, especially if the match is level deep into the second half.
If Paraguay scores first, Australia has to open up. If Australia scores first, Paraguay has no choice but to chase. Either way, the game state points toward chances at both ends.
Prediction: Both teams to score (+127 at Kalshi)
World Cup Group E scenarios: Germany, Ivory Coast, Ecuador, Curacao
Group E Standings
| TEAM | GP | PTS | GF | GA | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Germany |
2 | 6 | 9 | 2 | +7 |
 Ivory Coast |
2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Ecuador |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
 Curacao |
2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -6 |
Germany's late comeback victory over Ivory Coast means Die Mannschaft has already booked its place in the Round of 32 and secured first place in Group E.
Germany will face a third-place team from Group A, B, C, D, or F in the knockout round.
Behind Germany, Ivory Coast controls the race for second. A win or draw against Curacao will send Ivory Coast through automatically thanks to its head-to-head victory over Ecuador.
Ecuador is chasing third-place qualification and needs to beat Germany to move to four points. Curacao still has a path to second, but only with a win over Ivory Coast and help from Germany against Ecuador, plus a major swing in goal difference.
In the Round of 32, the Group E winner will play a third-place team, while the runner-up will face the runner-up from Group I.
Ecuador vs Germany
Thursday, June 25 at 4 p.m. ET
What's at stake
- Germany has already qualified and won Group E
- Ecuador needs a win to strengthen its third-place qualification case
- A draw likely ends Ecuador's World Cup campaign
- Germany can use this match to manage minutes before the knockout rounds
Key angle
This is a pure motivation vs. quality handicap.
Germany is the better team and has been one of the most impressive sides in the tournament, but its group-stage work is already done. Ecuador, meanwhile, has to chase a result and may get a more manageable version of Germany than the one that needed points earlier in the group.
Prediction: Ecuador team total Over 0.5 goals (-213 at Kalshi)
Curaçao vs Ivory Coast
Thursday, June 25 at 4 p.m. ET
What's at stake
- Ivory Coast qualifies automatically with a win or draw
- Curacao needs a win to have any chance of finishing second
- Ecuador's result against Germany could impact the third-place picture
- Ivory Coast owns the key head-to-head edge over Ecuador
Key angle
Ivory Coast does not need chaos here.
A draw is enough to finish second, so there is little reason for Ivory Coast to turn this into a wide-open match unless Curacao scores first. Curacao needs to push eventually, but its poor goal difference means even a draw likely will not be enough to survive.
Prediction: Under 3.5 goals (-150 at Kalshi)
World Cup Group F scenarios: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia
Group F Standings
| TEAM | GP | PTS | GF | GA | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands |
2 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +4 |
| Japan |
2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | +4 |
 Sweden |
2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
 Tunisia |
2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -8 |
The Netherlands sits top of Group F on goal difference after its 5-1 win over Sweden, but first place is not fully settled.
The Dutch face eliminated Tunisia in their final group match, while Japan and Sweden meet in the more consequential fixture. The Netherlands is in excellent position to advance and remains the favorite to win the group.
Japan only needs a draw against Sweden to guarantee automatic qualification, while Sweden needs a win to reach the top two. Even with a loss, Japan would still have a strong profile as a third-place team, while Sweden would be left sweating other results.
The Group F winner will face the runner-up from Group C in the Round of 32, while the runner-up will face the Group C winner.
Tunisia vs Netherlands
Thursday, June 25 at 7 p.m. ET
What's at stake
- The Netherlands can win Group F
- Tunisia has been eliminated
- Goal difference could matter if Japan beats Sweden
- The Dutch can secure a cleaner knockout-round path with a strong result
Key angle
This is the cleanest favorite spot on Thursday's slate.
Tunisia has conceded nine goals through two matches and has nothing left to play for beyond pride. The Netherlands, meanwhile, still has incentive to win the group and protect its goal-difference edge over Japan.
Prediction: Netherlands -2.5 (+100 at Kalshi)
Japan vs Sweden
Thursday, June 25 at 7 p.m. ET
What's at stake
- Japan qualifies automatically with a win or draw
- Sweden likely needs a win to finish top two
- Either team could still win Group F if the Netherlands slips
- A Sweden loss would leave it relying on third-place qualification
Key angle
This is the best game of the day from a tactical and betting standpoint.
Japan does not need to chase, but it has been one of the most dangerous attacking teams in the group. Sweden, meanwhile, has no choice but to push for a win after being hammered by the Netherlands.
That combination should create a game with chances at both ends, especially once Sweden starts taking more risks.
Prediction: Both teams to score (-150 at Kalshi)
Best angles for Thursday's World Cup scenarios
The final group-stage matchday is not a normal betting slate. Motivation matters, but it can also be overvalued by the market. A team needing a win does not automatically make it a good bet.
The key is identifying how urgency changes the game state.
Teams needing wins can create live Over value
Paraguay, Ecuador, Curacao, and Sweden all enter Thursday with pressure to chase results. That can create value on live Overs, second-half goals, and both-teams-to-score markets.
Already-qualified favorites may rotate
The United States and Germany have already won their groups, which makes them difficult pre-match favorites to trust. Both teams may prioritize health, squad rotation, and knockout-round preparation over chasing margin.
Group F is the best scoreboard-watching spot
The Netherlands and Japan are tied on points and goal difference, while Sweden still has a path to the top two. A goal in either Group F match could change the tactical incentives in the other.
How World Cup group tiebreakers work
When two or more teams finish the group stage level on points, FIFA does not immediately move to overall goal difference. The first separator is how the tied teams performed against each other.
Here is the order used to break ties in the World Cup group stage:
Step 1: Head-to-head record
- Most points earned in matches between the tied teams
- Best goal difference in matches between the tied teams
- Most goals scored in matches between the tied teams
Step 2: Full group-stage record
- Best goal difference across all group matches
- Most goals scored across all group matches
- Best team conduct score based on yellow and red cards for players and team officials
Step 3: FIFA ranking
- If teams still cannot be separated, the higher-ranked team in the most recent FIFA/Coca-Cola Men's World Ranking gets the edge
That matters for Thursday's World Cup knockout-round scenarios because not every tie is settled by goal difference. Head-to-head results can decide who advances, while overall goal difference and goals scored may still come into play if teams remain level after those first tiebreakers.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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