MLB Picks

Matz is coming off an awful start while walking nearly four and serving up 1.85 bombs per nine through 21 ⅓ frames. 

Once he and Messick exit, two below-average bullpens take over. The combination of wind, a vulnerable lefty starter, and shaky relief arms makes the game total a number begging to be attacked. 

The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 17.3-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for pitchers.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 5th-best infield defense belongs to the Chicago White Sox.. Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Oswald Peraza in today's game.. This season, there has been a decline in Oswald Peraza's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.17 ft/sec last year to 27.93 ft/sec currently.. Based on Statcast data, Oswald Peraza is in the 17th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .246.

Let’s take a bigger swing with the projected cleanup hitter for the Minnesota Twins in a strong matchup. The Covers projections like the Over in this game, and suggest the Minnesota offense is being undervalued. Victor Caratini is a switch-hitter who is better from the left side, and the Seattle Mariners bullpen may be without both of its left-handed arms. He’s also very familiar with Luis Castillo, with 23 career at-bats against him. Castillo may be on the back end of his prime. He’s been inefficient this year, allowing 31 hits in just 23 innings, and projects as a pitcher who could give up 25–30 home runs over the full season. The fair price for a Caratini home run sits around +770, and double-digit winds blowing out only add to the appeal. Kody Clemens (+520) and Josh Bell (+590) also project as +EV in this game.

No player is showing more expected value today at Covers than Trent Grisham at +490. He projects for 0.23 home runs, with the price implying 0.19. He could see five at-bats hitting leadoff and has gone deep twice over the last seven days. The matchup is favorable against Jack Leiter, a flyball arm who allows some of the best launch angles in baseball. Grisham is also elite at squaring the ball up, leading the New York Yankees in that metric while ranking second in Blast Contact%. Only two players in baseball currently have a higher square-up rate. On a small slate with poor weather expected on the East Coast, an indoor environment stands out as the best place to target home runs on Monday.

The Cubs and Padres have respectively scored at the fourth- and second-lowest percentage in the first inning this season, and this is a sneaky pitching matchup between Matthew Boyd and Randy Vasquez. To start, the Friars sit 28th in wOBA against southpaws, and Boyd will be making his second start back from a biceps injury and sports a solid 3.39 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 3.74 xERA since joining Chicago in 2025. Vasquez has also increased the velocity and movement on his fastball while being more aggressive overall, and it's led to more swinging strikes, so I’m anticipating his six-pitch mix to keep the Cubbies off balance early.