Houston is holding on for dear life in the AL West after dropping three of their last four, but I'm riding with them tonight as part of my Angels vs. Astros prediction.
The Houston Astros host the Los Angeles Angels at Daikin Park as -170 betting favorites at Polymarket and have a strong chance to get going early and often against Grayson Rodriguez and his 7.17 ERA.
Let’s dive into my MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 20, and drop a couple of winners.
Who will win Angels vs Astros today: Astros -1.5 (+114)
The Houston Astros are in a great spot to win their second consecutive game against the Los Angeles Angels' Grayson Rodriguez, who's striking out this Astros lineup at just a 16% clip.
The sample size here is large, too, as Houston has had 73 at-bats against the right-hander, owning a .280 xBA and .365 xwOBA.
On the other side, Peter Lambert has had his way with the Angels, punching them out at a 34% clip while limiting them to a .194 xBA across 41 plate appearances. He's had seven straight starts of going at least five innings while allowing two earned runs or less - that'll do.
I'd play this up to +105.
COVERS INTEL: Yordan Alvarez is indeed in line for some positive regression against Rodriguez. While he's a career 0-for-10 against the right-hander, he's still rocking a .738 xSLG against him. Look for the MVP candidate to break out tonight and help the Astros win.
Angels vs Astros Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 Runs (+105)
The Astros are going to do most of the legwork on this play, but the Angels should do just enough to get us over the finish line.
I'm expecting a big breakout game for Alvarez against Rodriguez, with Isaac Parades (.418 xBA), Christian Walker (.390 xBA), and Yainer Diaz (.417 xBA) helping out behind him.
The Over is a perfect 7-0 in the Astros' last seven games after Houston allowed two runs or less in their previous game. After a 3-2 win last night, the trends are lining up perfectly to cash this play for us.
Angels vs Astros home run prediction: Yordan Alvarez (+276)
Something's gotta give in this matchup tonight between Rodriguez and Alvarez. While the AL MVP odds favorite is 0-for-10 against Rodriguez, his underlying numbers tell a different story.
Averaging an exit velocity of 96 mph in this matchup while owning a .738 xSLG, look for Yordan to put one in the stands.
- ML/RL bets: 4-7, -1.78 units
- Over/Under bets: 4-7, -3.80 units
Angels vs Astros weather
Daikin Park has a retractable roof, so the weather will have little to no impact on game conditions tonight.
Angels vs Astros odds
- Moneyline: Angels (+163) | Astros (-170)
- Run line: Angels +1.5 (-122) | Astros -1.5 (+114)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+105) | Under 8.5 (-113)
Angels vs Astros trend
The Astros are 4-0 in Lambert's last four starts during Game 3 of a series — we'll take that. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Astros.
How to watch Angels vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Thursday, Aug. 20, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABTV, Space City Home Network |
| Angels starting pitcher | Grayson Rodriguez (3-5, 7.17 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Peter Lambert (8-6, 3.11 ERA) |
Angels vs Astros latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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