There are workload questions for Jacob deGrom as the Texas Rangers host the Washington Nationals tonight. Texas is a -161 favorite, with first pitch set for 8:10 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field.
Those deGrom concerns shape my Nationals vs. Rangers predictions, which back Washington as a road underdog, lean Under on a low total, and target a Nationals bat to go deep.
Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 20.
Who will win Nationals vs Rangers today: Nationals moneyline (+146)
Jacob deGrom gives the Texas Rangers the more appealing name on the mound, but his workload questions after a triceps issue and the Rangers’ offensive slump make the Washington Nationals alluring at a generous price. Andrew Alvarez has been sharp, carrying a 2.60 ERA across three August starts and allowing two earned runs or fewer in four straight outings.
The Rangers’ recent form is hard to ignore. They're just 3-7 over their last 10 while batting .213 with a minus-20 run differential, and they managed only four hits in Wednesday’s shutout loss. Washington has played steadier, winning baseball on the road.
DeGrom exited his last start after just two innings with triceps fatigue, and Texas has leaned heavily on its bullpen lately. He’s cleared to pitch, but at +146, I’ll take Alvarez’s form and a Nationals team playing well away from home. I’d play Washington to +130.
COVERS INTEL: Despite a respectable 3.95 ERA, deGrom carries a 4.50 ERA over his last seven starts and hasn't completed six innings in any of his last six appearances.
Nationals vs Rangers Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-103)
Both offenses have gone cold enough lately to take the Under at 7.5, even at close to even money. Andrew Alvarez has allowed just five earned runs across 17 1/3 innings in August, and his knack for suppressing home runs can limit a Texas lineup hitting only .213 over its last 10 games.
Washington faces the tougher arm in deGrom, who still owns 147 strikeouts in 120 2/3 innings despite his recent dip. The Nationals are also without James Wood, pulling their biggest power threat from a lineup with little margin for error against an arm of deGrom’s caliber.
Washington’s most realistic path is for Alvarez to hold Texas to two or three runs while the Nationals scratch out enough against deGrom and the bullpen. That script fits the Under. I’d play the Under to -110.
Nationals vs Rangers home run prediction: CJ Abrams (+350)
Specific pitch and platoon trends make CJ Abrams my favorite home run target here, even against deGrom. Abrams has crushed right-handed pitching this season, batting .301 with a .601 slugging mark and 23 home runs in 323 plate appearances. He carries real recent power with 11 homers over his last 30 games.
DeGrom’s four-seam fastball is the clearest path to a long ball. Opponents slug .523 against it with 11 home runs, and he throws that pitch 42% of the time. Abrams punishes that offering, producing a .598 slugging mark and a plus-12 Statcast run value against four-seamers.
Left-handed hitters have also accounted for 11 of deGrom’s 17 home runs allowed, giving Abrams the favorable side of the split. At +350, his production against righties and ability to crush deGrom’s most-used pitch are enough to take the shot. I’d play this to +325 for a quarter unit.
- ML/RL bets: 3-2, +0.93 units
- Over/Under bets: 2-3-, -0.90 units
Nationals vs Rangers weather
Globe Life Field’s retractable roof projects to be closed on Thursday, taking weather out of the equation and keeping conditions cool and pitcher-friendly. That run-suppressing environment fits the Under.
Nationals vs Rangers odds
- Moneyline: Nationals +146 | Rangers -161
- Run line: Nationals +1.5 (-155) | Rangers -1.5 (+134)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-107) | Under 7.5 (-103)
Nationals vs Rangers trend
Both games of this series have gone Under, producing just five and six total runs with each team shut out once. This low-scoring pattern that backs the Under 7.5. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Rangers.
How to watch Nationals vs Rangers and game info
| Location | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date | Thursday, Aug. 20, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Nationals starting pitcher | Andrew Alvarez (2-4, 3.72 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher | Jacob deGrom (8-8, 3.95 ERA) |
Nationals vs Rangers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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