Games are going off all day long! Even with a small slate in front of us, there's still plenty of value in the MLB player props market.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 20, including why I expect Pete Alonso to go nuclear again.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Taylor Trammell |
Over 0.5 Hits, Runs, RBI | -148 |
 Pete Alonso |
Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI | -109 |
 Grant Holmes |
Over 2.5 Earned Runs | +118 |
Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 hits, runs, RBI (-148)
HALF. HALF a hit, run, and/or RBI. HALF!!!
Right out the gate, you can get Houston Astros outfielder Taylor Trammell to record a hit at a great price, but for HALF an HRR, this is a great price to pay.
Trammell enters Thursday with an elite rating on Batters-Box's current season dataset. Over his last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching, he owns a .500 SLG and 15% walk rate while generating a 51.6% hard-hit rate and 22.6% barrel rate. Over the last 10 days, the Astros' outfielder has been racking up a bunch of hard-hit outs, with one triple sprinkled in there.
If Trammell makes contact against Los Angeles Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez, he should be due for at least a base hit. Rodriguez has allowed left-handed hitters to produce a 49.1% hard-hit rate, 33% ground-ball rate, and 1.76 HR/9. Those lefties also own a .310 xBA, .506 xSLG, and .360 xwOBA against him.
Take this down to -150, or pivot to just a hit.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SCHN, ABTV
Pete Alonso Over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI (-109)
We're going right back to Baltimore Orioles slugger Pete Alonso after he cashed for us last night while nearly providing another home run late in the game. This evening against New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole he's in another great spot with an even better price tag.
So far this season, when rated elite on Batters-Box, Alonso has gone Over this prop 68.18% of the time, which comes from a 22-game sample size. Alonso also covers over 85% of Cole's arsenal, which is huge. On top of that, the big fella owns a 1.000 SLG and .500 ISO while producing a 67.7% hard-hit rate and 22.6% barrel rate over his last 10 games.
Cole, on the other hand, comes with some concerning underlying metrics against right-handed hitters that Alonso should be able to exploit. Over the last 30 right-handed hitters he's faced, Cole is allowing a 50% hard-hit rate and 36.4% ground-ball rate, while those hitters have produced a .445 xBA and .604 xSLG.
Even with Alonso going yard yesterday, the price for him to go over 1.5 HRR is simply too good to pass up this evening. Take this down to -120.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, MASN
Grant Holmes Over 2.5 earned runs (+118)
Despite the Chicago White Sox's tough week at Wrigley, their bats have been red-hot. Over their last 12 games, the team's lineup sports a 131 wRC+, .361 wOBA, and .818 OPS. This afternoon White Sox enter with the third-highest-rated offense, according to Batters-Box, with two elite-rated hitters and four with strong ratings.
The Atlanta Braves send right-hander Grant Holmes to the mound, who owns the third-worst pitcher rating on the slate. On top of that, he get poorly rated matchup ISO, hard-hit, and strikeout rates. The Braves' hurler owns a 5.04 xERA and 1.38 WHIP while allowing a 43.59% hard-hit rate and 11.54% barrel rate over his last five starts. With the White Sox's lineup featuring seven left-handed hitters, combined with Holmes' 4.55 xERA against lefties, this matchup screams early runs for Chicago.
Take this down to +110 at the most, or pivot to White Sox first-five team total over 2.5.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, BravesVsn
- Prop picks: 418-809, -8.4 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
