The New York Yankees go for the sweep at Camden Yards this evening as a -118 favorite, with the total sitting at 8.
Gerrit Cole brings a 1.93 ERA across three August starts, while Kyle Bradish counters with a 3.65 ERA and 58 walks in 133 innings.
My Yankees vs. Orioles predictions target Bradish's strike-throwing problem and a total both offenses are built to stay Under.
Read on for my MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 20.
Who will win Yankees vs Orioles today: Yankees moneyline (-127)
I'd play the New York Yankees to -135 tonight.
The Bronx Bombers walk at a 9.8% clip, fourth-best in MLB. For me, this is one of the most undervalued stats in baseball, but it matters more here because of the current form Baltimore Orioles arm Kyle Bradish.
He grades in the 25th percentile in walk rate at 10.3%, and the underlying numbers are worse: a 43.8% zone rate and a 55.3% first-strike rate, both career lows. A patient lineup does not need to hit him to score.
Gerrit Cole is the other half of the equation. He's looking closer to vintage form with a 1.93 ERA across three August starts and a 2.15 mark since the All-Star break.
COVERS INTEL: Kyle Bradish's four-seamer has become a giveaway pitch. He throws it 17.4% of the time, and hitters are batting .330 with a .481 xSLG against it.
Yankees vs Orioles Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-108)
Both offenses score in bursts or not at all.
New York sits at a .273 BABIP, the lowest in MLB, and Baltimore is fourth-worst in contact rate at 72.3%. That is a profile built for two three-run innings rather than sustained ones. The multi-run homer is likely what beats me, but it's reduced with both pitchers having an approximate 5% barrel rate reduction over the last week.
Bradish grades in the 79th percentile in ground-ball rate at 48.5% against a Yankees club that hits 40.9% fly balls, a mismatch of intent that turns damage swings into outs on the ground. Cole sits in the 77th percentile in xERA at 3.37 and has allowed just five earned runs across 18 2/3 August innings.
I made this total 7.1 and would play it to -120.
Yankees vs Orioles home run prediction: Jazz Chisholm (+562)
Bradish's chief skill is keeping the ball on the ground. Beating him means getting lift on breaking stuff.
Jazz Chisholm is the Yankee who does it best, posting a .413 average and .609 slugging with a .504 xSLG against sinkers this season, a plus-5 run value and the best mark on the roster. Chisholm also pulls 53.9% of his contact, the highest rate in the lineup, into a right field porch that rewards it.
Play to +350.
- ML/RL bets: 44-44, +0.90 units
- Over/Under bets: 50-38, +13.49 units
Yankees vs Orioles weather
Yankees vs Orioles odds
- Moneyline: Yankees -118 | Orioles +108
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 | Orioles +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Yankees vs Orioles trend
Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Orioles.
How to watch Yankees vs Orioles and game info
| Location | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date | Thursday, Aug. 20, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | MASN, YES |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Gerrit Cole (6-6, 3.22 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Kyle Bradish (7-11, 3.65 ERA) |
Yankees vs Orioles latest injuries
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