MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on April 27, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Tampa Bay Rays logo TB @ Cleveland Guardians logo CLE Mon, Apr 27 • 6:10 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Tampa Bay Rays logo Cleveland Guardians logo o7.5 (-105)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
Phil Naessens image
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Matz is coming off an awful start while walking nearly four and serving up 1.85 bombs per nine through 21 ⅓ frames. 

Once he and Messick exit, two below-average bullpens take over. The combination of wind, a vulnerable lefty starter, and shaky relief arms makes the game total a number begging to be attacked. 

Spread
Cleveland Guardians logo CLE -1.5 (+155)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
Phil Naessens image
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Tampa Bay Rays starter Steven Matz has surrendered five home runs in five starts (all to right-handers) while righty bats are slugging .538 against him.

The Cleveland lineup is stacked with righties, the wind is blowing out to left at 11 mph, and you're getting plus-money on the run line against a Tampa Bay Rays side that’s beating mediocre teams. 

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St. Louis Cardinals logo STL @ Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT Mon, Apr 27 • 6:40 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT (-125)
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 hours ago
Trevor Knapp image
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor

Dustin May has been a colossal disaster in the early going for St. Louis, sporting a 5.84 ERA. Meanwhile, Pirates right-hander Braxton Ashcraft’s WHIP sits at an impressive 1.01 heading into Monday. Take Pittsburgh to handle business at home.

Total Bases
Oneil Cruz logo
Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.83
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as the league's 11th-best home run batter.. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Oneil Cruz will hold the platoon advantage against Dustin May in today's matchup... and even more favorably, May has a large platoon split.. Oneil Cruz will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.
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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR Mon, Apr 27 • 7:07 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Hits
Ernie Clement logo Ernie Clement o1.5 Hits (+185)
Best Odds
Pick made: 18 minutes ago
Quinn Allen image
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst

Clement has collected 2+ hits in three of his last five contests, and he's 2-for-3 lifetime against Ranger Suarez. Clement is also batting .325 off lefties, and he's third in the big leagues in hits with 36. 

Strikeouts Thrown
Dylan Cease logo Dylan Cease o7.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-102)
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 minutes ago
Quinn Allen image
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst

Cease has 19 Ks in 54 at-bats against the Red Sox in his career. He's also cashed the Over in strikeouts in two of his last three, and the righty has 20 punchouts in only 10.1 innings at the Rogers Centre. 

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Los Angeles Angels logo LAA @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Mon, Apr 27 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Oswald Peraza logo
Oswald Peraza u0.5 Total Hits (+162)
Projection 0.81
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Out of all the teams in action today, the 5th-best infield defense belongs to the Chicago White Sox.. Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Oswald Peraza in today's game.. This season, there has been a decline in Oswald Peraza's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.17 ft/sec last year to 27.93 ft/sec currently.. Based on Statcast data, Oswald Peraza is in the 17th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .246.. Oswald Peraza's 87.5-mph average exit velocity is among the worst in the league since the start of last season: 17th percentile.
Total Bases
Munetaka Murakami logo
Munetaka Murakami o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 2
Best Odds
Pick made: 26 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Munetaka Murakami as the league's 2nd-best home run hitter.. Munetaka Murakami is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Guaranteed Rate Field as the 6th-best park in MLB for run-scoring.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 2nd-best hitting conditions on the slate today.. Munetaka Murakami will have the handedness advantage against Jack Kochanowicz in today's game.
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Seattle Mariners logo SEA @ Minnesota Twins logo MIN Mon, Apr 27 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Matt Wallner logo
Matt Wallner o1.5 Total Bases (+188)
Projection 1.55
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Wallner as the majors's 18th-best home run batter.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Target Field as the 5th-best venue in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.9-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Because of Luis Castillo's large platoon split, Matt Wallner will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the worst infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.
Total Bases
Cal Raleigh logo
Cal Raleigh o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.78
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Cal Raleigh projects as the 5th-best home run batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cal Raleigh is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Target Field as the 5th-best venue in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.9-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. The Minnesota Twins infield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.
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New York Yankees logo NYY @ Texas Rangers logo TEX Mon, Apr 27 • 8:05 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Spread
New York Yankees logo NYY -1.5 (-108)
Best Odds
Pick made: 14 hours ago
Trevor Knapp image
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor

Max Fried has limited Texas hitters to a .152 batting average over his career, and with the Rangers ranking 23rd in OBP, expect the Yankees to cover in Arlington. 

Total Hits
Andrew McCutchen logo
Andrew McCutchen u0.5 Total Hits (+117)
Projection 0.65
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Andrew McCutchen hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 91st percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 6th-deepest CF fences today.. Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the New York Yankees.. Andrew McCutchen grades out in the 19th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (13.7% rate since the start of last season).. Andrew McCutchen has been very bad at hitting the ball to all fields (a crucial skill for batting average), placing in the 9th percentile in THE BAT X's Spray Score since the start of last season.
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Chicago Cubs logo CHC @ San Diego Padres logo SD Mon, Apr 27 • 9:40 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Game Prop
Chicago Cubs logo San Diego Padres logo YRFI/NRFI (No: -116)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Cubs and Padres have respectively scored at the fourth- and second-lowest percentage in the first inning this season, and this is a sneaky pitching matchup between Matthew Boyd and Randy Vasquez. To start, the Friars sit 28th in wOBA against southpaws, and Boyd will be making his second start back from a biceps injury and sports a solid 3.39 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 3.74 xERA since joining Chicago in 2025. Vasquez has also increased the velocity and movement on his fastball while being more aggressive overall, and it's led to more swinging strikes, so I’m anticipating his six-pitch mix to keep the Cubbies off balance early.

Total Bases
Fernando Tatis Jr. logo
Fernando Tatis Jr. u1.5 Total Bases (-185)
Projection 0.92
Best Odds
Pick made: 30 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #8 stadium in MLB for suppressing offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park.. Petco Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 7th-most favorable for hitting on the slate today.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 8-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for mound aces.. The Chicago Cubs infield defense profiles as the strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.
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Miami Marlins logo MIA @ Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD Mon, Apr 27 • 10:10 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Strikeouts Thrown
Yoshinobu Yamamoto logo Yoshinobu Yamamoto o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+126)
Best Odds
Pick made: 21 minutes ago
Quinn Allen image
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst

Yamamoto has collected 28 strikeouts in 32.2 innings of work, and he's cashed the Over in Ks in back-to-back starts. The righty faces the Miami Marlins tonight, who are striking out nearly nine times per game on the road. 

Total Hits
Kyle Tucker logo
Kyle Tucker u0.5 Total Hits (+178)
Projection 0.86
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 7th-hottest temperature on the slate today at 59°.. Kyle Tucker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.4% — 88th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 8th-deepest RF fences today.. Kyle Tucker's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 92.4-mph figure last year has lowered to 89.9-mph.. This year, there has been a decline in Kyle Tucker's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.49 ft/sec last year to 25.67 ft/sec currently.
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