MLB Picks

There is only one bat with a better slugging percentage over the last seven days than Yandy Díaz, who also ranks 22nd in BlastContact% over that stretch. He looks fine after missing a game following a pitch off the hand last Thursday and delivered a two-hit day yesterday, including a double vs. the Yankees. He has gone deep three times over his last seven games with four doubles and just two strikeouts against three walks. There is a slight chance of rain in Baltimore, but conditions still feature 75-degree temperatures and light winds blowing out. A strong angle here is that Díaz just saw Kyle Bradish in his last start and tagged him for a home run and a double in three plate appearances. Both balls were crushed, with the homer leaving the bat at 111.3 mph and the double at 113.7 mph. That familiarity edge is firmly in Díaz’s favor today. Díaz has also seen Bradish 22 times in his career and is hitting .455 off him overall.

Misiorowski rarely gives up runs, and the inconsistent Cardinals lineup has scored just eight runs combined in three recent losses. While Liberatore has struggled lately, he’s also had solid road outings recently. Milwaukee’s offense cooled off against the Dodgers, making a lower-scoring game likely.

Why are the Minnesota Twins road favorites today with Zebby Matthews on the mound? His run of good fortune feels due to snap with a .227 BABIP while stranding 93% of his runners. He was getting tagged in Triple-A before the call-up and simply doesn’t profile as a good pitcher. He also threw 100 pitches in his last outing and hands things over to a bullpen that ranks 25th in ERA on the season and could be without Taylor Rogers after back-to-back appearances. Meanwhile, Anthony Kay is quietly putting together a strong season with two or fewer earned runs allowed in eight of his 10 starts. The White Sox still feel undervalued by the market, and THE BAT has this fair price sitting at -120.

I haven't been thrilled about backing Yankees arm Will Warren so far this year, but his 86th percentile K rate should play well here. It's a Royals lineup with limited barrel threats, which means Warren should generate plenty of swing-and-miss. While I like the Yankees to get after Wacha, the story of the season so far for New York is at play here: There's still a good amount of easy outs at the bottom of the New York lineup. I made the total 8.7; this is not a huge edge but playable nonetheless.

Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee is the weirdest pitcher in MLB this season. Somehow, he is 0-6 despite a 3.75 ERA and a generally solid FIP. He's not an overpowering hurler, and the Nationals have a dangerous offense, but he's not going to 0-7. I just don't see Zack Littell keeping Cleveland off the board. The only area where Littell thrives is in his 71st-percentile walk rate, which can be construed as a negative. He lives in the zone, and he gets killed in there. 

Jesus Luzardo has settled back in, allowing two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts, and San Diego continues to struggle badly against left-handed pitching. Randy Vasquez has also been reliable with a 2.96 ERA, while Philadelphia’s offense has cooled off significantly against righties and away from home. The trends also support a low-scoring game, with the Phillies going Under in seven of their last eight games and the Padres doing the same in 10 of their last 12 at home.

This one checks a lot of boxes and is a great way to start the week. Julio Rodríguez is in great form with the 18th-best slugging mark in baseball over the last week and the 15th-best BlastContact rate. He went deep yesterday at Kauffman Stadium and has multiple hits in three of his last four games. He also gets the best hitting environment on the slate in Sacramento with double-digit winds blowing out to center at 13 mph. He’ll get a crack at Aaron Civale, who has allowed five home runs over his last two starts. J-Rod has also done damage against the Athletics starter in a solid sample, going 7-for-15 with a homer across 15 at-bats. The +EV dinger carries a fair price around +300. It’s a great number for a late-night Memorial Day dinger.

I'm on the market here and wouldn't play this below 7, but at a plus-money price with how the Yankees are swinging lately, I'm inclined to lean towards the Under. The Yankees' offense, one of the best in the sport for long stretches over the past three years, has really struggled lately. It's been held to three runs or fewer in nine of its past 14 games. It should be ugly conditions in Yankee Stadium today, add in Ryan Weathers' strikeout rate, which ranks in the 97th percentile of baseball, and both offenses should stay fairly quiet.