MLB Picks

Tampa Bay sends the better offense to the dish with a 10th-ranked wOBA and the lowest strikeout percentage in the majors against righties, and I don’t think Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee is fully healthy. He exited his first start of the season with right shoulder inflammation and never missed a turn in the rotation. His velocity dipped across the board in his most recent start, and he’s also surrendered an alarming 53.2% hard-hit rate this year.

Kai-Wei Teng is starting for Houston and hasn’t completed three innings in any appearance this season, so the Astros will likely lean heavily on a bullpen that’s been awful in recent weeks. On the other side, Shane Baz limps into tonight's game after allowing four earned runs in consecutive starts. We also have an avalanche of Over trends, with it cashing in eight of the Astros’ last nine and in seven straight for the Orioles.

I’m getting square, but I’ll happily take a potential five-AB leadoff hitter in a strong matchup against Kyle Leahy, who ranks among the worst pitchers in baseball by Blast Contact%. Only one starter has a worse mark, and Leahy has been getting crushed by left-handed hitters. If swing speed is your angle, Oneil Cruz fits — he owns the second-fastest swing in baseball and is a prime target in plus matchups. The setting also helps, with temperatures in the 70s and winds blowing out to center. If Leahy exits early, Cruz will see a St. Louis Cardinals bullpen that ranks 25th in ERA and lacks strong left-handed options.

The Rockies and Reds both rank below average the percentage of games they score in the opening inning, and starters Tomoyuki Sugano and Chase Burns have both been solid in the first frame this season. Sugano has allowed a pair of runs while limiting opposing hitters to a .687 OPS, and Burns has been unblemished while limiting hitters to a miniscule .243 OPS.

Both of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s homers have been against lefties this season, posting an 1.150 OPS against southpaws. Additionally, he crushes the four-seamer fastball, which Payton Tolle throws 52% of the time against righties. If Vladdy runs into one, it should leave the yard at a high exit velocity. 

If you’re betting home runs today, make sure to include some New York Mets. Zack Littell has allowed 11 homers over 25 innings this year, with nine coming in his last three starts. He’s hanging on by a thread and is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Left-handed hitters already have nine long balls off Littell, and while Juan Soto is a solid look at +300, Baty at +570 stands out. He’s been the Mets’ best hitter over the last week, and his Blast Contact metrics support the surge. This is a strong spot to stack HRRBI exposure.

I see value in the Over, in part because Martin Perez is prime for regression. 

His xERA is nearly two runs higher above his actual 2.70 ERA, and his 4.44 xFIP is in line with his numbers the past few seasons. 

The Tigers rank second on the season in xwOBA and ninth in BABIP. They’re eighth in ISO, and rank third in the metric over the past two weeks.

Martin limits walks and avoids barrels, but he doesn’t generate a lot of whiffs or strikeouts. An inability to avoid contact means the Tigers will get to him for a few runs.

White Sox righty Davis Martin has only allowed a single first-inning run through five starts. He’s also held right-handed hitters to a pedestrian .246 wOBA, which will play against a righty-heavy Los Angeles lineup. The bottom half of the frame shouldn’t be worrisome, either. Angels star Jose Soriano has put the majors on notice with just a single run allowed through his five starts, and the White Sox rank 28th in wOBA against righties. 

Texas vet Jacob deGrom has allowed two runs while holding opposing hitters to a .286 on-base percentage in the first inning across his five starts, which aligns with his career 2.35 ERA in the opening frame across 253 starts. Similarly, Yankees righty Cam Schlittler has tossed a scoreless first in five of six starts while holding opposing hitters to a .143 OBP.

The Cubbies woke up at the plate Monday with seven runs, and they’re up to 6.1 per game with the best wOBA in baseball during their 13-6 run. San Diego sends Walker Buehler (5.75 ERA and 4.97 xERA) to the hill, and his fastball velocity is at a career low while four of his six offerings are carrying negative pitch values. Of course, the Cubs have also gone Over their team total in 17 of the past 24 games (+9.60 Units / 34% ROI).

Shohei Ohtani has been dominant on the mound, allowing a single earned run in 24 innings while striking out 25 and allowing 12 hits. LA has played to the Under in three of his four starts. Both squads rank within the top eight in bullpen FIP, so a low-scoring game could be in store for a game with temperatures in the low 60s at Chavez Ravine. Ohtani won’t feature in today’s lineup. The Dodgers are still potent, but will be without their best hitter, and both starting middle infielders (Mookie Betts, Tommy Edman) are still on the IL.