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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Aug. 14, 2026.
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SD
@
CLE
Fri, Aug 14 • 7:10 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Gavin Williams u7.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-140)
Projection 6.25
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Shane Livensparger grades out as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is likely to be in charge of the strike zone in today's game.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all major league parks, which tends to lead to better offense.. Gavin Williams has been very fortunate when it comes to his strikeouts this year, compiling an 11.51 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 10.97 — a 0.54 K/9 discrepancy.
Total RBIs
Manny Machado o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Manny Machado ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Progressive Field grades out as the #2 venue in baseball for right-handed BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 2nd-shallowest LF dimensions among all stadiums are found in Progressive Field.. Manny Machado has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.1-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 90.6-mph mark.
BAL
@
TB
Fri, Aug 14 • 7:10 PM ET
Game Prop
o1.5 Team Total (-115)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
The Baltimore Orioles offense is in an excellent spot to attack the Tampa Bay Rays' pitching plan tonight. Tampa Bay is expected to use Steven Matz as the opener before handing the ball to Jesse Scholtens, creating a matchup worth targeting. Baltimore ranks 17th in first-five scoring at roughly 2.44 runs per game, while the offense has been much better lately, posting a 123 wRC+, .349 wOBA, .795 OPS and .209 ISO over its last six games. The Orioles are also generating a 47.7% hard-hit rate and 10.5% barrel rate during that stretch. With Scholtens carrying the worst Batters-Box pitcher rating, two runs looks very attainable.
Total Home Runs
Tyler O'Neill o0.5 Total Home Runs (+388)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
Since June 1, O’Neill is hitting .357 against left-handers with an .875 slugging percentage and eight home runs in just 62 plate appearances. Matz is the ideal target for him, as the Rays' lefty has allowed 12 home runs this year, with 10 coming against righties. His sinker, which he throws nearly half the time, carries a -9 Statcast run value.
NYY
@
TOR
Fri, Aug 14 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+575)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Vladdy owns an elite .590 xSLG against Cole over the course of his career, and has already taken him deep twice. It's the perfect storm for Toronto's boy to hit his first homer at the Rogers Centre.
Total Bases
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
If Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is trying to get right, seeing Gerrit Cole on the bump might be exactly what the doctor ordered. Not only is Vladdy seeing the ball well right now (he's on a six-game hit streak), but he owns a 1.043 OPS in this specific matchup and has six extra-base hits against Cole across 35 at-bats.
AZ
@
ATL
Fri, Aug 14 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Mike Yastrzemski o0.5 Total Home Runs (+475)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Mike Yastrzemski leads the Atlanta Braves in batting average, wOBA, ISO, and SLG over the past 15 games.
He has posted a strong 17.4% barrel rate during that span, and hit 13 balls at least 300 feet.
Bet to +450.
Total
u8.0 (-115)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Brandon Pfaadt’s ability to limit barrels makes it very difficult to hit for power, and his 80th percentile ranking in ground ball rate helps him limit damage when he does give up contact.
Chris Sale has struck out more than 37% of opposing batters the past month and, perhaps even more incredibly, he’s only been taken yard in one of his last 13 starts.
This has Under written all over it, and I’d play it to -130.
SEA
@
HOU
Fri, Aug 14 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Julio Rodriguez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+474)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Rodriguez has the most success out of everyone on the Mariners against Lambert. The three-time All-Star is 3-for-5 with an xSLG of .942 in his small sample size. It helps that Daikan Park has given up the fifth-most homers in all of baseball. Rodriguez has found his power stroke, too, hitting a long ball in three of his last eight games.
Total
u8.5 (-121)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
No surprises here - runs are going to be few and far between tonight with this pitching matchup. Lambert, while he doesn't have as large a sample size in this matchup as Kirby, has still done a great job of suppressing runs here. Across 42 plate appearances, he's striking this Mariners team out at a 33% clip, limiting them to an overall .187 xBA.
KC
@
LAA
Fri, Aug 14 • 9:38 PM ET
Earned Runs Allowed
Grayson Rodriguez o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-106)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
The Kansas City Royals find themselves in an extremely favorable matchup against Los Angeles Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez, who owns the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box today. Rodriguez has struggled throughout the season, posting a 7.36 ERA and 1.64 WHIP while allowing a 45.66% hard-hit rate and 10.4% barrel rate. That becomes even more concerning against a Kansas City lineup featuring five elite-rated bats and plenty of left-handed hitters, against whom Rodriguez owns a 6.35 xERA this season. Despite Kansas City’s disappointing season, this lineup is in a great spot to make some noise. The Royals are playable down to -110, or consider their F5 team total over 2.5 at plus money.
Total Home Runs
Jac Caglianone o0.5 Total Home Runs (+307)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Jac Caglianone finds himself in an excellent spot to go deep against Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez. The Royals slugger owns an elite rating on Batters-Box's current-season dataset, covering 100% of Rodriguez's pitch mix and homering on 30.43% of his 23 elite ratings this season. Caglianone has also been locked in against right-handed pitching, posting a .333 BA, .667 SLG and 1.034 OPS over his last 30 plate appearances while generating a 58% hard-hit rate and 12% barrel rate. He has also produced an 18% barrel rate over his last five games. With Rodriguez's struggles against left-handed hitters, Caglianone is worth a look at +275 or better.
TEX
@
ATH
Fri, Aug 14 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.95
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 94th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Jake Burger is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.. Sutter Health Park ranks as the #1 stadium in the league for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all stadiums, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 83°.
Total Bases
Zack Gelof o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zack Gelof in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Zack Gelof is penciled in 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. Sutter Health Park ranks as the #1 stadium in the league for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all stadiums, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 83°.
MIL
@
LAD
Fri, Aug 14 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Shohei Ohtani o0.5 Total Home Runs (+291)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Shohei Ohtani draws a favorable matchup against Brewers southpaw Robert Gasser, who owns the second-worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box. Ohtani, meanwhile, has the highest matchup rating while covering 100% of Gasser's arsenal. Across 335 elite ratings over the last three seasons, Ohtani has homered in nearly 30% of those games. He has also dominated left-handed pitching recently, batting .429 with a .857 SLG and 1.324 OPS over his last 30 at-bats against lefties, while producing a 47.6% hard-hit rate and 23.8% barrel rate. Gasser has limited lefties overall, but his last 60 opponents own a .332 xBA and .511 xSLG, giving Ohtani another opportunity to go deep.
Total Home Runs
Teoscar Hernandez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+474)
JD Yonke
Betting Analyst
Teoscar Hernandez has a 121 wRC+ and .179 ISO against southpaws. With the wind blowing out (8-10 mph) to dead center, he has a good chance of doing damage against Robert Gasser, who allows 1.8 home runs per nine innings against righties.
COL
@
SF
Fri, Aug 14 • 10:15 PM ET
Total RBIs
Hunter Goodman o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Hunter Goodman projects as the 14th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Hunter Goodman is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 18.4-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for batters.. Extreme flyball hitters like Hunter Goodman generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Landen Roupp.. Among all the teams today, the 4th-worst infield defense belongs to the San Francisco Giants.
Total Bases
Mickey Moniak o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his home run ability, Mickey Moniak ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mickey Moniak is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 18.4-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for batters.. Mickey Moniak will have the handedness advantage over Landen Roupp in today's game.. Mickey Moniak pulls many of his flyballs (39.3% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
STL
@
CIN
Mon, Aug 17 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Bases
JJ Wetherholt o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 2.03
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, JJ Wetherholt ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. JJ Wetherholt is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.. The #1 field in MLB for boosting home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest RF dimensions in Major League Baseball.. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-least humidity on the slate today at 89%.
Total RBIs
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+153)
Projection 0.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nolan Gorman is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The #1 field in MLB for boosting home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-least humidity on the slate today at 89%.. Because of Brady Singer's huge platoon split, Nolan Gorman will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-105)
Pick made: 2 months ago
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
Moneyline
ATL (-112)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-110)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
Moneyline
NYY (-135)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Moneyline
SF (+124)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
Our experts and prediction models are hard at work analyzing the data. Check back shortly for today's picks, or explore our Computer Picks for inspiration.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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