Between the defending World Series favorite Dodgers and the popular Yankees eating up a healthy chunk of the futures bets at multiple sportsbooks, operators have to like where they are with the postseason about to begin.
- Longer odds on the Padres and White Sox have operators rooting against those two wild-card teams this week.
- The Brewers are surging in popularity to win the World Series.
- Yankees-Red Sox is set up to be a highly wagered series.
BetMGM’s biggest liabilities are playing across the four wild-card series, which begin Tuesday with four games.
“Heading into the playoffs, the sportsbook is in great position on the World Series futures market,” BetMGM senior trader Matthew Rasp said. “Many of the favorites, including the Dodgers, Brewers, and Yankees, are winners for the book. The Padres and White Sox are the two biggest remaining liabilities to win it all.”
San Diego reached odds as long as +10,000 during the regular season, but the Padres went on a 17-3 run this month to drive their price down to +1,900 at BetMGM. The operator has seen 3.1% of the bets and 4.4% of the money on the Padres, making them the book’s biggest liability heading into the best-of-three series with the Cubs in the National League.
The White Sox are the biggest liability to win the World Series and the American League pennant at Caesars Sportsbook, Eric Biggio, the operator’s head of baseball, told Covers on Monday.
The White Sox opened at +50,000 to win the World Series and got as short as +2,000 at BetMGM. Chicago is currently +4,000, getting 2.1% of the bets and 1.1% of the handle, as it heads into an American League wild-card series with the Astros (+1,800).
Popular bets
The Dodgers are getting a little over 2-to-1 odds at most shops to win the World Series for a third consecutive year, and they are the most-bet team as well, “by a wide margin,” a Fanatics spokesperson told Covers on Monday.
BetMGM reported that 11.8% of the tickets and 20.8% of the handle is on the team that never saw odds longer than +225 to win it all during the regular season.
Fanatics said the Dodgers have taken 37% of the futures market bets, with the Yankees accounting for 16%. No other team has seen more than 6% of the wagers.
The Dodgers (+200) and Yankees (+850) are the top two teams by handle in DraftKings’ World Series winner market.
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Top seeds
The top-seeded Rays in the AL are third on BetMGM’s liability list and have current odds of +800, which shortened from +1,000 two weeks ago and opened at +5,000. Tampa Bay is getting 3.5% of the bets and 3.2% of the money. The Guardians (+1,200), who also have a bye, are getting 2.3% of the bets and 2.1% of the handle.
Fanatics said the NL's No. 1-seed Brewers have been the second most-bet team to win the World Series over the last two days, well ahead of the fifth spot they’ve held in the MLB odds rankings for the entire season.
Milwaukee (+600) is fourth in handle at DraftKings, behind the third-place Red Sox (+1,500), but ahead of the Dodgers, Cubs (+1,700), Phillies (+1,700), and Braves (+1,500).
“We’ve seen lots of love, with reason, on the Brewers as well, so they are our second-worst case scenario,” Biggio said.
Wild-card showdowns
The Yankees-Red Sox wild-card rivalry showdown is the most-bet series so far this week, but the matchup was determined earlier than the others.
At DraftKings, Boston (+114) is getting 64% of the moneyline bets and 68% of the handle in Tuesday’s Game 1. More than 90% of the money is already on over 6.5 runs for the game.
“We’ve seen some great action so far on the Yankees/Red Sox series, with the Yankee backers coming in a little stronger to start,” Biggio said.
The Astros (-123) are taking 71% of the money against the White Sox in the other AL series.
The Braves are a healthy -198 with Chris Sale on the mound Tuesday, and 79% of the handle and 89% of the tickets are backing the home team against the Phillies. The Padres, -126 favorites over the Cubs, are taking 52% of the bets and over 65% of the money.
“We’ve seen some early money on the Padres versus the Cubs, Braves small against the Phils, and good two-way action on the Astros/White Sox,” Biggio said about Caesars’ early wild-card action.
