Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on June 29, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
SD
@
CHC
Mon, Jun 29 • 8:05 PM ET
u11.5 (-126)
I’m anticipating Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga to hold San Diego in check enough to keep this total Under the number thanks to his high-end 30.3 whiff percentage and 14.5 swinging-striking percentage. The Padres rank 29th in baseball against left-handed pitchers this season, and they've also struggled in June with a 24th-ranked xwOBA and just 3.9 runs per game.
The Cubs have paced the majors with 6.6 runs per game during their 12-4 heater while also ranking fourth in wOBA, and the Padres sending righty Griffin Canning to the bump tonight. I’m anticipating another big night from the Chicago lineup considering Canning's 52.1% hard-hit rate is tied for the lowest mark in the majors among pitchers with 40 innings. Still, I’m anticipating Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga to hold San Diego in check enough to keep this total Under the number thanks to his high-end 30.3 whiff percentage and 14.5 swinging-striking percentage. Finally, Chicago outfielder Ian Happ has teed off on righties this season to the tune of a .380 wOBA and .263 ISO, and he’s racked up 13 runs, 12 hits and six RBI across his past 15 games.
MIN
@
HOU
Mon, Jun 29 • 8:10 PM ET
Yordan Alvarez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+215)
Yordan Alvarez draws one of the strongest individual matchups on Monday’s slate against Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews. Matthews has struggled significantly versus left-handed hitters, allowing elevated contact quality with a high hard-hit and barrel profile, along with strong underlying production from opposing bats. Over his most recent sample of lefty matchups, the expected slugging and wOBA metrics indicate sustained damage potential. Alvarez’s surface numbers over his last 30 plate appearances versus righties are modest, but his underlying power indicators remain strong, including elevated hard-hit and barrel rates and a strong wOBA. The matchup profile supports interest despite a less appealing price.
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (-129)
Yordan Alvarez finds himself in another dream matchup, making it tough to ignore him once again. He owns nearly 100% arsenal coverage against Twins right hander Zebby Matthews, whose pitch mix plays directly into Alvarez's strengths. Matthews has been crushed by left handed hitters over his last 60 matchups, surrendering a 70% elevation rate, 40% hard hit rate, 11.5% barrel rate, .663 xSLG, and .476 xwOBA. If you are looking to avoid laying heavy juice, take Alvarez to hit a double or home run is worth considering.
MIA
@
COL
Mon, Jun 29 • 8:40 PM ET
LAD
@
ATH
Mon, Jun 29 • 9:40 PM ET
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Total Bases (-126)
Shea Langeliers gets a favorable matchup against left hander Eric Lauer, making this a much better spot than yesterday. The Athletics catcher owns 80% arsenal coverage against Lauer's pitch mix on Batters-Box and has been crushing left handed pitching, posting a .423 BSA, .808 SLG, and 1.308 OPS over his last 30 at bats while producing a 55% hard hit rate. Lauer has also struggled to keep right handed hitters on the ground, allowing a 72% air ball rate, 14% barrel rate, .508 xSLG, and .352 xwOBA over his last 60 right handed batters faced.
o10.5 (-110)
Eric Lauer is sporting a sky-high 51% fly ball rate and has allowed 2.23 homers per nine innings.
He profiles as the exact kind of pitcher who will struggle mightily against a powerful Athletics offense in a very hitter-friendly ballpark.
Gage Jump has also allowed at least three runs in two of three home starts, with a putrid Angels team being the lone exception.
Bet to -125.
SF
@
AZ
Mon, Jun 29 • 9:40 PM ET
Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodriguez has statistical correction coming, with his 2.27 ERA is miles below his 4.79 xERA. I’m also expecting the Giants to give Tyler Mahle a long enough leash to finish the fifth inning and record at least 15 outs for the ninth consecutive start because their bullpen ranks 26th in ERA and 29th in xFIP across the past 30 days. This is also perfect for the Over because he’s been beaten around on the highway the past two years with a 6.28 ERA while allowing a healthy .367 wOBA. Arizona star Corbin Carroll rounds out the SGP, and he’s registered a hit in 14 of the past 19 games and his .226 batting average against right-handed pitchers is way below the .250 mark he posted over the past two years.
SF (+114)
I'm happy to pick against Diamondbacks LHP Eduardo Rodriguez every time he takes the bump. The 11-year veteran owns a glowing 2.27 ERA to this point in the season, but his xERA sits at 4.80 and is in the 22nd percentile. The D-Backs own the league's worst wRC+ against right-handers this season at 85, and face Giants RHP Tyler Mahle.
LAA
@
SEA
Mon, Jun 29 • 9:40 PM ET
u7.5 (-103)
George Kirby should continue his recent dominance, while both bullpens have been among the league's best lately. Seattle may find early success against Ryan Johnson, but with the Mariners carrying just a .290 wOBA over the last week, runs could become scarce after the starters exit.
SEA -1.5 (-103)
George Kirby enters in outstanding form after posting a 2.82 FIP across his last four starts, while Ryan Johnson continues allowing hard contact and home runs. Seattle has also been a much stronger offense at T-Mobile Park, making the Mariners well positioned to cover the run line.
AZ
@
STL
Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
o2.5 Team Total (-115)
The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.
Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.
TOR
@
CHC
Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer.
Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-105)
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
ATL (-112)
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
o8.5 (-110)
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
NYY (-135)
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
o7.5 (-116)
SF (+124)
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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