MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 97th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Miguel Vargas is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The #8 park in baseball for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 5th-best of the day for bats.. Extreme groundball bats like Miguel Vargas generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Trey Gibson.

The #2 stadium in the game for boosting BABIP to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. The 3rd-shallowest left field dimensions among all stadiums are found in Progressive Field.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games today at 89°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters.

Kyle Schwarber is rarely someone I target on bases props because the value is almost never there. Instead, I prefer attacking his hit if the price dips below -170 or taking a shot on his plus money double and home run markets. Schwarber owns the fifth highest arsenal coverage among elite rated hitters on Batters-Box against Bubba Chandler, while carrying elite power numbers at home. He has also produced an 80% hard hit rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right handed pitching. If Schwarber squares one up tonight, it should be elevated, with a strong chance of leaving the yard.

Tarik Skubal faces Cam Schlittler in a true pitcher's duel. Schlittler hasn't allowed a first-inning run in 13 straight outings, boasting a 16-1 NRFI/YRFI record this season. The Yankees offense is ice cold, hitting just .156 with a 34 wRC+ over their last week. 

When estimating his overall offensive ability, CJ Abrams ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. CJ Abrams is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in the game for run-scoring.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. CJ Abrams pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.5% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

St. Louis Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore has posted a FIP of 6.3 or higher in four consecutive starts, none of which came against teams holding onto playoff spots. Martin Perez recorded a FIP of 2.5 or better in three of his last four and should give the Atlanta Braves a clear pitching advantage.

The #5 venue in the league for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation in the majors, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 92°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 16.1-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats.. Extreme flyball bats like Salvador Perez tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Griffin Jax.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 77th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects American Family Field as the 9th-best stadium in MLB for right-handed home runs.. Among all parks, American Family Field has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest altitude in MLB, which generally leads to more offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects for the 2nd-most suitable hitting conditions of the day.

Ty France finally finds his way onto one of my cards, and the matchup is too good to ignore. The Padres first baseman owns an elite Batters-Box curretn season ratings with nearly 90% arsenal coverage against Matthew Boyd. The Cubs lefty has struggled against right handed hitters, allowing a 52.5% hard hit rate, 13% barrel rate, and 74% elevation rate over his last 30 righties faced. France has crushed left handed pitching, batting .300 with a .520 SLG and .877 OPS over his last 90 at-bats, while posting a 57% hard hit rate. If the price climbs, pivot to his total bases prop instead.

Joe Ryan enters in outstanding form after posting a 2.19 FIP across his last two starts, while Mike Burrows continues to struggle with a 6.65 FIP over his last five outings. Minnesota's hot offense should capitalize early, giving the Twins the edge behind their ace-quality right-hander.

After combining for 17 runs on Monday, the Marlins and Rockies look set up for another high-scoring game at Coors Field. Both offenses have been rolling, ranking third and fifth in OPS over the past two weeks. Colorado hands the ball to Tanner Gordon, who owns a 6.37 ERA and a 9.92 mark at home, while Miami counters with Eury Perez and his 6.04 ERA in six road starts. Add in a Rockies bullpen that ranks 29th in home ERA and a 10.3 mph wind blowing out, and the conditions are ripe for plenty of offense.

Nolan Schanuel is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Among all major league stadiums, T-Mobile Park has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest fences in the majors — generally good for home runs.. Nolan Schanuel will have the handedness advantage against Bryan Woo in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Woo has a large platoon split.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.

Justin Wrobleski is the ultimate regression candidate; his 2.71 ERA is a mirage masked by a fraudulent 4.32 xERA and a bottom-tier 17.8% whiff rate.  Conversely, Jeffrey Springs is dynamically unlucky. His bloated 5.52 ERA hides a much sharper 4.41 xERA and a strong .244 xBA, while his 20.6 % strikeout rate provides a true missing-bat floor. Take the Athletics to +115 tonight. 

 

As it relates to his home run skill, Casey Schmitt ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Casey Schmitt is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. Chase Field projects as the #2 field in MLB for righty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.