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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 18, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.11 |
+163 
|
o7.5 -125 
|
+1.5 -134
|
|
5.23 |
-184 
|
u8.0 -114 
|
-1.5 +120 
|
Kansas City
- Over is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 7-0 in Royals last 7 games following a loss.
- Under is 5-0 in Royals last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 10-0-1 in Royals last 11 overall.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+153)
o0.5+155
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.05 |
-125
|
o8.5 -112
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
4.28 |
+110
|
u8.5 +101 
|
+1.5 -145 
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 overall.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in Burns' last 6 starts vs. National League Central.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Reds last 5 overall.
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Reds last 5 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Sal Stewart o0.5 Total RBIs (+198)
o0.5+198
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.15 |
-134
|
o8.5 -105
|
-1.5 +126
|
|
4.16 |
+120
|
u8.5 -107
|
+1.5 -130
|
Milwaukee
- Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 vs. American League East.
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 interleague road games.
Baltimore
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
- Orioles are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 7-2 in Orioles last 9 overall.
Top Projection
Colton Cowser o0.5 Total RBIs (+375)
o0.5+375
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.76 |
+108
|
o7.0 -123
|
+1.5 -205
|
|
3.79 |
-125
|
u7.5 -120 
|
-1.5 +175
|
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 7-0 in Red Sox last 7 games following a win.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as a favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a win.
- Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 home games.
- Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Jahmai Jones o0.5 Total RBIs (+325)
o0.5+325
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.57 |
+166
|
o8.5 -104
|
+1.5 -130
|
|
4.71 |
-190
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +115 
|
Athletics
- Over is 8-2 in last 10 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-1 in last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 overall.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 on grass.
Top Projection
Daniel Espino o1.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-115)
o1.5-115
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.89 |
+104
|
o8.5 -102
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
5.09 |
-110
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +165
|
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 road games.
- Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.
NY Mets
- Over is 7-0-1 in Mets last 8 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Thorntons last 4 starts as a home underdog.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 7-1 in Mets last 8 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+192
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.71 |
+115
|
o8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
4.56 |
-129
|
u8.5 -109
|
-1.5 +164
|
Detroit
- Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Tigers last 4 on grass.
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 11-4 in their last 15 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 8-3 in White Sox last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total RBIs (+256)
o0.5+256
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.34 |
-125
|
o7.5 -115
|
-1.5 +133
|
|
3.77 |
+120
|
u8.0 -124
|
+1.5 -138
|
Toronto
- Over is 6-0 in Ceases last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0 in Ceases last 7 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Ceases last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
Texas
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Rangers last 7 games as a favorite.
- Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 vs. American League East.
Top Projection
Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+270)
o1.5+270
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.68 |
-185
|
o10.5 -105
|
-1.5 -117
|
|
5.37 |
+156
|
u10.5 -109
|
+1.5 +100
|
Seattle
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 9-1 in Mariners last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 7-1 in Mariners last 8 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Mariners last 6 games as a favorite.
Colorado
- Over is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 home games.
- Over is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 games a home underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0-2 in Rockies last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Mickey Moniak o0.5 Total RBIs (+177)
o0.5+177
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.79 |
-116
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +146
|
|
4.59 |
+110
|
u8.5 -117
|
+1.5 -157
|
Atlanta
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in Braves last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
Houston
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Astros last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Christian Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
o0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.40 |
-104
|
o7.0 -167
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.16 |
-112
|
u8.0 -120
|
-1.5 +180
|
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Nationals are 8-0 in Cavallis last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
St. Louis
- Under is 5-0-1 in Leahys last 6 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Leahys last 7 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 vs. National League East.
Top Projection
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
o0.5+300
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.28 |
-120
|
o8.5 +102
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
3.76 |
+108
|
u8.5 -114
|
+1.5 -160
|
Minnesota
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Twins last 8 vs. American League West.
- Over is 5-1 in Twins last 6 games as a road underdog.
LA Angels
- Over is 6-1 in Angels last 7 home games.
- Over is 5-1 in Angels last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1 in Angels last 5 games a home underdog.
- Under is 15-4 in Angels last 19 vs. American League Central.
Top Projection
Grayson Rodriguez o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+375)
o4.5-110
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.81 |
+167
|
o7.0 -157
|
+3.5 -345
|
|
4.44 |
-193
|
u7.5 -104
|
-3.5 +270
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 7-1 in Marlins last 8 games following a win.
- Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
San Diego
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 games following a win.
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Top Projection
Nick Pivetta o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+128)
o4.5-160
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.10 |
-125
|
o7.0 -182
|
-1.5 +136
|
|
4.87 |
+115
|
u8.0 -105
|
+1.5 -150
|
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 road games.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Arizona
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 games as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Aaron Judge o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
o0.5+185
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.53 |
+250
|
o7.5 -125
|
+2.5 -140
|
|
5.32 |
-295
|
u8.0 -110
|
-2.5 +115
|
San Francisco
- Over is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 vs. National League West.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 overall.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 on grass.
Top Projection
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+247)
o0.5+247
KC
@
PIT
Fri, Sep 18 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.86
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his batting average skill, Bobby Witt Jr. is projected as the 2nd-best batter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the 4th-weakest out of every team today.. Bobby Witt Jr. has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph to 96.7-mph over the past 7 days.. Despite posting a .343 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Bobby Witt Jr. has had bad variance on his side given the .038 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .381.
Total Bases
Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.86
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Oneil Cruz projects as the 18th-best home run batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Oneil Cruz will hold the platoon advantage against Randy Dobnak in today's matchup.. Oneil Cruz has strong power (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (30.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Randy Dobnak doesn't generate many whiffs (7th percentile K%) — great news for Cruz.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Oneil Cruz will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
CHC
@
CIN
Fri, Sep 18 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Ian Happ o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.46
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive ability, Ian Happ ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ian Happ is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. The #4 stadium in the game for boosting home runs to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 81°.. The switch-hitting Ian Happ will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Chase Burns.
Total Bases
Michael Conforto u1.5 Total Bases (-275)
Projection 0.63
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Michael Conforto's BABIP ability is projected in the 15th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Michael Conforto is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game.. Michael Conforto has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 30% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.. Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Michael Conforto today.. Michael Conforto has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 10.7% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past week.
MIL
@
BAL
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Joey Ortiz o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1300)
Projection 0.08
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most suitable for hitting on the slate today.. Joey Ortiz will have the handedness advantage against Cade Povich in today's game.. Joey Ortiz has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Joey Ortiz has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 91.7-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 89-mph figure.. Over the last two weeks, Joey Ortiz's 18.2% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 11.1%.
Total Home Runs
William Contreras o0.5 Total Home Runs (+625)
Projection 0.17
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive ability, William Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. William Contreras is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most suitable for hitting on the slate today.. Batting from the opposite that Cade Povich throws from, William Contreras will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
BOS
@
TB
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:10 PM ET
Moneyline
BOS (+107)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
For the second day in a row, give me the Boston Red Sox, who are trading at 48% on Polymarket, but I price them closer to a 51% favorite against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Red Sox came through with a green checkmark on Thursday against the Texas Rangers, so we'll jump on the bandwagon for one more day. The Rays can put seven right-handed bats in the lineup, with their two most dangerous hitters, Yandy Díaz and Junior Caminero, both swinging from that side. However, this matchup isn't as bad for Ranger Suárez as you might think. He isn't a soft-tossing southpaw, and his two-seam sinker should get in on the hands of Tampa Bay's right-handed hitters. The natural swing paths of Caminero and Díaz should also lead to ground balls against this pitch rather than elevated contact into the gaps.
Total Hits
Ryan Vilade u0.5 Total Hits (+130)
Projection 0.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Ryan Vilade is penciled in 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.. 39% of the time that Ryan Vilade has started against a left-handed pitcher this year, he has been pulled from the game early.. Ryan Vilade hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best out of every team in action today.. Despite posting a .338 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ryan Vilade has had some very good luck given the .035 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .303.
ATH
@
CLE
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Nathaniel Lowe u1.5 Total Bases (-225)
Projection 0.85
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Nathaniel Lowe has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 17% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.. Progressive Field has the 4th-tallest fences in Major League Baseball.. The weather forecast predicts the 2nd-most suitable pitching weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Compared to his seasonal mark of 14.2°, Nathaniel Lowe has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-0.5°) in the last two weeks.. Despite posting a .333 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Nathaniel Lowe has had some very good luck given the .018 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .315.
Total RBIs
Jose Ramirez o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jose Ramirez ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jose Ramirez is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. The #2 ballpark in the majors for boosting BABIP to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (42.9% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
PHI
@
NYM
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Bo Bichette o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his batting average talent, Bo Bichette is projected as the 6th-best batter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bo Bichette is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. The shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Citi Field.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Bo Bichette will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total Bases
Carson Benge o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Carson Benge's BABIP skill is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Carson Benge is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Carson Benge will have the handedness advantage over Alan Rangel in today's game.. Carson Benge has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
DET
@
CHW
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Randal Grichuk u0.5 Total Hits (+180)
Projection 0.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
62% of the time that Randal Grichuk has started against a left-handed starter this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report predicts the best pitching conditions of all games on the slate today.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hurlers.. Over the last 14 days, Randal Grichuk's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.8% down to 0%.. Randal Grichuk has been lucky this year, notching a .370 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .325 — a .045 disparity.
Total Bases
Dillon Dingler o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dillon Dingler in the 76th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Dillon Dingler is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Guaranteed Rate Field as the 7th-best field in MLB for boosting offensive stats to RHB.. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-smallest outfield among all stadiums — generally good for HRs.. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Chicago White Sox.
TOR
@
TEX
Fri, Sep 18 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+270)
Projection 1.31
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 95th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all stadiums.. Jake Burger will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Jake Burger has paced 26.9 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, ranking in the 79th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Jake Burger has averaged 28.2 homers per 600 plate appearances this year, grading out in the 85th percentile for power.
Total Bases
Corey Seager o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Corey Seager projects as the 13th-best batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Corey Seager is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all stadiums.. Corey Seager will hold the platoon advantage against Dylan Cease in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Corey Seager will hold that advantage today.
SEA
@
COL
Fri, Sep 18 • 8:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
TJ Rumfield o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
T.J. Rumfield is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Coors Field as the best field in the game for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the league, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. T.J. Rumfield will have the handedness advantage over Bryan Woo in today's game... and even more favorably, Woo has a large platoon split.. Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.
Total Bases
Cole Carrigg o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 1.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Cole Carrigg is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Coors Field as the best field in the game for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the league, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.. Cole Carrigg will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.
ATL
@
HOU
Fri, Sep 18 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Matt Olson o0.5 Total Home Runs (+271)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 30%. Matt Olson’s recent contact quality is tough to ignore. He owns a 63.6% hard-hit rate and 13.6% barrel rate over the last week while continuing to elevate the ball. Lambert can give up fly balls, and Houston’s struggling bullpen only adds to Olson’s chances of going deep.
Total
o8.5 (+103)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 55%. The starting pitching may be steady, but both bullpens have been vulnerable lately. Houston’s relief corps has been especially shaky, carrying a 6.46 FIP with 2.52 HR/9 allowed over the last week. With Atlanta swinging it well, there’s plenty of late-game scoring potential here.
WAS
@
STL
Fri, Sep 18 • 8:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Jordan Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Jordan Walker is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 9th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 91°.. Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
Projection 0.42
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 9th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 91°.. Nolan Gorman will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cade Cavalli today.. Extreme groundball batters like Nolan Gorman tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Cade Cavalli.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage in today's game.
MIN
@
LAA
Fri, Sep 18 • 9:38 PM ET
Total Bases
Jose Siri u1.5 Total Bases (-275)
Projection 0.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Angel Stadium as the worst ballpark in the league for run-scoring.. Jose Siri pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.6% — 79th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 11th-deepest LF fences today.. In the last week's worth of games, Jose Siri's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 14.1% down to 0%.. Jose Siri's exit velocity on flyballs has declined lately; his 93.1-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 85.1-mph in the last week.. In the past 7 days, Jose Siri's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 20.2%.
Total Bases
Royce Lewis u1.5 Total Bases (-187)
Projection 0.86
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Royce Lewis in the 15th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. Royce Lewis is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Angel Stadium as the worst ballpark in the league for run-scoring.. Grayson Rodriguez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Royce Lewis today.. Royce Lewis pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.
MIA
@
SD
Fri, Sep 18 • 9:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
Projection 0.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez as the 10th-best batter in baseball when assessing his batting average talent.. Otto Lopez is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Extreme flyball batters like Otto Lopez tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.. In the past week's worth of games, Otto Lopez's 20% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.3%.
Total RBIs
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run ability, Heriberto Hernandez ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Heriberto Hernandez is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Heriberto Hernandez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Heriberto Hernandez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.5-mph average to last season's 93.6-mph EV.
NYY
@
AZ
Fri, Sep 18 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Jesus Sanchez o1.5 Total Bases (+220)
Projection 1.25
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Jesus Sanchez ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Chase Field ranks as the #3 stadium in baseball for overall left-handed offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 3rd-best for hitting of all games on the slate today.. Batting from the opposite that Gerrit Cole throws from, Jesus Sanchez will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Jesus Sanchez will hold that advantage today.
Total Bases
Gabriel Moreno o1.5 Total Bases (+124)
Projection 1.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Gabriel Moreno is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 3rd-best venue in the majors for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 3rd-best for hitting of all games on the slate today.
SF
@
LAD
Fri, Sep 18 • 10:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Will Smith o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 1.94
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Will Smith projects as the 18th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Will Smith is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Dodger Stadium ranks as the #2 ballpark in the game for RHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Dodger Stadium has the shortest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Will Smith will have the handedness advantage against Cesar Perdomo in today's game.
Total Bases
Drew Gilbert o1.5 Total Bases (+255)
Projection 1.25
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Drew Gilbert has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Dodger Stadium as the 2nd-best ballpark in the league for left-handed home runs.. In Major League Baseball, Dodger Stadium's centerfield dimensions are the 9th-shallowest.. Dodger Stadium has the shortest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Tyler Glasnow throws from, Drew Gilbert will have an advantage today.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Aaron Judge projects as the best home run batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 7th-best ballpark in the league for RHB home runs.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitters such as Aaron Judge with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Drew Rasmussen who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Total RBIs
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
Free Computer Picks by Odds Shark
More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
