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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 15, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.95 |
-230 
|
o8.5 -105 
|
-1.5 -130 
|
|
3.95 |
+200 
|
u8.5 +102 
|
+1.5 +120
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Yamamotos last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yamamotos last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yamamotos last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Lowders last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Lowders last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in Lowders last 6 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
o0.5+250
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.50 |
+130 
|
o8.5 -110
|
+1.5 -167
|
|
4.83 |
-144
|
u8.5 -107
|
-1.5 +150
|
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 5-0 in Martins last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 6-0 in White Sox last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Cleveland
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Griffins last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Munetaka Murakami o0.5 Total RBIs (+225)
o0.5+225
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.91 |
+200
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -110
|
|
4.80 |
-220
|
u8.5 -125 
|
-1.5 +100
|
Athletics
- Over is 3-0-2 in Perkins' last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 road games.
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 games as a road underdog.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Jaxs last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
o1.5+150
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.16 |
-220
|
o7.5 -105
|
-1.5 -124
|
|
3.87 |
+195
|
u7.5 -110
|
+1.5 +106
|
Milwaukee
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Brewers are 7-1 in Misiorowskis last 8 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Brewers are 6-1 in Misiorowskis last 7 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 home games.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Pirates last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+155)
o1.5+155
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.96 |
-210
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 -120
|
|
2.96 |
+180
|
u8.5 -117
|
+1.5 +105
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Sanchezs last 5 starts vs. National League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Sanchezs last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Sanchezs last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Washington
- Over is 3-0-2 in Kents last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Kents last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Kents last 4 starts on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
o0.5+170
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.49 |
+119
|
o8.5 +100
|
+1.5 -178
|
|
4.37 |
-134
|
u8.5 -113
|
-1.5 +155
|
Detroit
- Over is 3-0-2 in Tigers last 5 overall.
- Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Tigers last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Toronto
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total RBIs (+225)
o0.5+225
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.29 |
+115
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
4.70 |
-130
|
u8.5 -130
|
-1.5 +165
|
Baltimore
- Under is 6-0 in Bazs last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
NY Mets
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Manaeas last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Mets are 4-0 in Manaeas last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Christian Encarnacion-Strand o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5+200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.54 |
+120
|
o8.5 -110
|
+1.5 -175
|
|
4.88 |
-136
|
u8.5 -108
|
-1.5 +150
|
Atlanta
- Under is 6-0 in Perezs last 6 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Perezs last 6 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 6-0 in Perezs last 6 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 overall.
Chi. Cubs
- Cubs are 4-0 in Gausmans last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cubs last 8 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Mike Yastrzemski o0.5 Total Home Runs (+750)
o0.5+960
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.29 |
-175
|
o7.5 -120
|
-1.5 -104
|
|
3.54 |
+150
|
u8.0 -114
|
+1.5 -115
|
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 6-0 in Frieds last 6 starts vs. American League Central.
- Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Minnesota
- Under is 5-0-1 in Obers last 6 home starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Twins are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
Top Projection
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
o1.5+120
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.91 |
+140
|
o8.0 -118
|
+2.5 -245
|
|
4.99 |
-160
|
u8.5 -115
|
-2.5 +195
|
San Francisco
- Over is 7-0 in Giants last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Tidwells last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
St. Louis
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pallantes last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Cardinals last 9 during game 2 of a series.
Top Projection
Joshua Baez o0.5 Total RBIs (+235)
o0.5+240
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.50 |
-110
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +150
|
|
3.91 |
+108
|
u8.5 -124
|
+1.5 -170
|
Boston
- Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 games following a win.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 road games.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rangers last 8 home games.
Top Projection
Roman Anthony o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
o1.5+155
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.09 |
+140
|
o7.5 -121
|
+1.5 -150
|
|
4.83 |
-155
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +135
|
Kansas City
- Under is 7-0-1 in Royals last 8 overall.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Royals last 8 on grass.
- Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League West.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Astros are 4-0 in Browns last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+134)
o1.5+134
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.53 |
-188
|
o11.0 -134
|
-1.5 -125
|
|
5.84 |
+170
|
u11.5 -112
|
+1.5 +110
|
San Diego
- Padres are 8-0 in their last 8 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 road games.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 games as a favorite.
Colorado
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 overall.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 on grass.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
o1.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.16 |
-165
|
o8.0 -105
|
-1.5 +100
|
|
4.16 |
+148
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -110
|
Seattle
- Over is 8-0 in Mariners last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Gilberts last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Mariners last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Gilberts last 4 starts vs. American League West.
LA Angels
- Under is 5-0 in Johnsons last 5 starts as a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Angels last 4 home games.
- Under is 5-0 in Johnsons last 5 home starts.
- Under is 4-1 in Angels last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+221)
o0.5+221
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.71 |
+130
|
o8.0 -148
|
+2.5 -265
|
|
5.04 |
-150
|
u8.5 -105
|
-2.5 +205
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Junks last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
Arizona
- Diamondbacks are 4-0 in Sorokas last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Under is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.
Top Projection
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+193)
o0.5+202
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.08 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.89 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 6-0 in White Sox last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Guardians are 7-1 in Messicks last 8 starts as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.70 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.94 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
San Francisco
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-1-2 in Giants last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Giants are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0 in Liberatores last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.26 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.32 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 7-0 in Rodons last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Rodons last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Minnesota
- Under is 5-0 in Matthews' last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Twins are 4-0 in Matthews' last 4 starts with 6 days of rest.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.05 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.81 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Detroit
- Over is 3-0-2 in Tigers last 5 overall.
- Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Tigers are 6-0 in Monteros last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Toronto
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.33 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.82 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Athletics
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 road games.
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 games as a road underdog.
- are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 games as a favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Rays last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.59 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.99 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 5-0 in Dodgers last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 6-1 in Snells last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.68 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.54 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Jones' last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.78 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.17 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Wheelers last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Phillies are 9-1 in Wheelers last 10 starts vs. National League East.
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 home starts.
- Nationals are 4-0 in Cavallis last 4 starts as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.38 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.29 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Baltimore
- Over is 8-0 in Bassitts last 8 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 7-0 in Bassitts last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 9-0 in Bassitts last 9 road starts.
- Over is 5-0 in Bassitts last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
NY Mets
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Mets last 4 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-1 in Mets last 5 vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Mets last 6 interleague home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.23 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.77 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Atlanta
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-1 in Braves last 7 vs. National League Central.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 6-0 in Imanagas last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Imanagas last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Cubs are 4-0 in Imanagas last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
LAD
@
CIN
Tue, Sep 15 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kyle Tucker o0.5 Total Home Runs (+406)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 25%. Kyle Tucker is scorching hot, launching three homers over his last six games while posting a ridiculous .632 ISO. He's also recorded a 29.4% barrel rate over the last week, and both Lowder and Cincinnati's bullpen have allowed plenty of loud contact. Tucker is firmly on my radar tonight.
Total
o8.5 (-109)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 55%. Cincinnati's bullpen has been a major liability, allowing 2.08 HR/9 with a 5.72 FIP over the last week, while Rhett Lowder is also struggling. That's a dangerous combination against a Dodgers lineup sporting a 126 wRC+ and .237 ISO over its last six games. Cincinnati should contribute enough to help push this Over.
CHW
@
CLE
Tue, Sep 15 • 6:40 PM ET
Moneyline
CLE (-123)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
I'm definitely backing the Cleveland Guardians and Foster Griffin at 55%, as I price them closer to a 59% favorite against the Chicago White Sox in this crucial AL Central matchup. This is a tough matchup for White Sox starter Davis Martin. His main strikeout pitches are his slider and curveball, but the Guardians are likely to stack the lineup with eight left-handed bats, meaning those pitches will be breaking into the barrels of their hitters. We also know how patient this lineup is. Martin doesn't feature an overpowering four-seam fastball and instead leans on his sinker as his best pitch. However, hitters such as José Ramírez and Chase DeLauter are exceptional contact hitters who can waste this pitch. Martin is going to be forced to challenge the Guardians in the zone with his four-seamer, and that's an advantage for Cleveland.
Strikeouts Thrown
Foster Griffin o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-165)
Projection 5.86
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Foster Griffin has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 3.9 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average hurler.. The Chicago White Sox have 5 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Munetaka Murakami, Brenton Doyle, Colson Montgomery, Braden Montgomery, Jake Rogers).. David Rackley grades out as a Pitchers Umpire and is likely to be calling pitches in this game.. According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Guardians's expected catcher today) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Progressive Field as the 10th-best field in the league for strikeouts.
ATH
@
TB
Tue, Sep 15 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Junior Caminero o0.5 Total Home Runs (+271)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Junior Caminero finds himself in another favorable spot against Athletics right-hander Jack Perkins. Through 40 elite ratings this season, Caminero has homered over 25% of the time. He has also been swinging a hot bat lately, posting a .538 SLG and .282 ISO over his last 10 games, alongside a near 50% hard-contact rate and 15.2% barrel rate. Perkins has struggled against right-handed hitters recently, with his last 30 faced generating a 15% barrel rate, 70% elevation rate and .517 xSLG.
Total Bases
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Shea Langeliers projects as the 18th-best home run batter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shea Langeliers is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Tropicana Field grades out as the #1 venue in MLB for right-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Shea Langeliers pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst among every team in action today.
MIL
@
PIT
Tue, Sep 15 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+270)
Projection 0.49
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as the game's 16th-best home run hitter.. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. Oneil Cruz will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.. In the last week, Oneil Cruz's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 98.2-mph over the course of the season to 106.5-mph in recent games.. Using Statcast metrics, Oneil Cruz is in the 84th percentile for power per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 28.100.
Total Bases
Ryan O'Hearn o1.5 Total Bases (+230)
Projection 1.33
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 84th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest elevation in MLB, which often leads to more offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for for the 5th-most favorable hitting conditions on the schedule today.. Batting from the opposite that Jacob Misiorowski throws from, Ryan O'Hearn will have an edge today.
PHI
@
WAS
Tue, Sep 15 • 6:45 PM ET
Spread
PHI -1.5 (-123)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
I love this price at 54%, and would play the Phillies up to 58%. Cristopher Sanchez has absolutely owned this Nationals team throughout his career, limiting them to a .225 xBA and .276 xwOBA across 109 plate appearances - a sample size that includes a 0-for-11 mark from James Woods. We'll take that. On the other side is the Nats' No. 8 prospect, Jackson Kent, who's had a rough rookie campaign so far, coming off a three-inning, eight-hit, five-earned-run outing against the San Diego Padres. His 5.49 xERA suggests this loaded Phillies lineup should be able to ambush the 23-year-old early.
Spread
PHI -1.5 (-126)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Cristopher Sanchez has been one of baseball’s most reliable starters this season, posting a 2.79 ERA with 210 strikeouts, and he gets an excellent matchup against Washington. Nationals starter Jackson Kent owns a 6.59 ERA, giving Philadelphia a significant pitching advantage before factoring in the superior lineup. At -126, I’d rather lay the 1.5 runs than pay the inflated moneyline price.
DET
@
TOR
Tue, Sep 15 • 7:07 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+600)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Can you imagine getting +600 on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to hit a home run just a year ago? Of course he's deserving of that price now, but after hitting his first bomb at home two nights ago, I'm going back to the well here. He's just one game removed from a 4-for-5 performance at the dish, and with the Blue Jays' season hanging in the balance, look for him to get to Drew Anderson - his 8.4% barrel rate is among the worst in baseball.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Kazuma Okamoto o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+105)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Kazuma Okamoto has been playing the best baseball of his rookie season with the Toronto Blue Jays' playoff dreams hanging in the balance. He's rocking a 1.115 OPS to go with five homers in September, which is absolutely absurd, and over his last 30 games, Okamoto is slashing .280/.361/.617 (.977 OPS) with nine homers and 18 RBI. He's cashed this play in five of his last seven games.
His 13.9% barrel rate is in the 91st percentile across all qualified hitters this season, too; suffice it to say, he should be able to run into one today against a contact pitcher like Drew Anderson.
BAL
@
NYM
Tue, Sep 15 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Pete Alonso o0.5 Total Home Runs (+286)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Pete Alonso is my favorite home run look against Sean Manaea and the Mets tonight. While many bettors will immediately target Coby Mayo because Manaea is a lefty, Alonso has been absolutely crushing southpaws lately. Over his last 30 at-bats against left-handed pitching, he owns a .565 SLG and .261 ISO while generating a hard-hit rate above 76% and a barrel rate over 23%. That power profile lines up perfectly with Manaea’s recent struggles against right-handed hitters. Over his last 30 faced, righties have posted a .408 xBA, .788 xSLG, and .307 ISO. Alonso is the Orioles’ power bat to target tonight.
Total Bases
Francisco Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+260)
Projection 1.23
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his home run talent, Francisco Alvarez ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-strongest of the day for batters.. Francisco Alvarez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's shallowest CF fences in today's game.. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team playing today.. Francisco Alvarez will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.
ATL
@
CHC
Tue, Sep 15 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Tyrone Taylor u0.5 Total Hits (+145)
Projection 0.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Tyrone Taylor's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last season to this one, falling from 46.1% to 38%.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Tyrone Taylor's true offensive skill to be a .314, implying that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .040 difference between that figure and his actual .354 wOBA.. In notching a .289 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Tyrone Taylor finds himself in the 16th percentile for hitting ability.. This year, Tyrone Taylor's flyball exit velocity (an advanced stat to assess power) is in the 16th percentile at 89.1 mph.
Total Bases
Austin Riley o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Riley in the 94th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in the majors.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 5th-best for hitting of all games on the slate today.. Austin Riley has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 100.6-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal EV of 95-mph.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Austin Riley's true offensive ability to be a .332, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .041 difference between that mark and his actual .291 wOBA.
NYY
@
MIN
Tue, Sep 15 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Luis Garcia Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+381)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Fastballs and changeups account for nearly 75% of Bailey Ober’s pitches to lefties this season.
Luis Garcia Jr. owns a .262 ISO and 12.5% barrel rate vs. those two pitches.
What I also like is a low strikeout rate (16.7%) and walk rate (3.6%). He is putting a ton of balls in the play – which you need to leave the park! – so the power stems from high volume.
Moneyline
NYY (-175)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
I’m on the New York Yankees all the way up to 66%.
Max Fried has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since Aug. 1, posting a 1.53 ERA and .238 wOBA.
Fried should have his way with the Minnesota Twins, who sit 29th in barrel rate and xwOBA against southpaws over the last month.
SF
@
STL
Tue, Sep 15 • 7:45 PM ET
Total RBIs
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
Projection 0.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest fence height (on average) among all parks.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Blade Tidwell throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an advantage today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage today.. Nolan Gorman has made big improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 10.6% seasonal rate to 15.8% in the past two weeks.
Total RBIs
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+238)
Projection 0.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Bryce Eldridge ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Eldridge is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest fence height (on average) among all parks.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Bryce Eldridge has a ton of pop (89th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (27.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Andre Pallante doesn't generate many whiffs (16th percentile K%) — great news for Eldridge.
BOS
@
TEX
Tue, Sep 15 • 8:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Wilyer Abreu o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Globe Life Field has the 6th-shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. In the past week, Wilyer Abreu's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.7% up to 25%.. Wilyer Abreu's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 16.7% to 21.9%.
Total Hits
Corey Seager u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Globe Life Field ranks as the #29 venue in baseball for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 6th-deepest centerfield fences among all parks are found in Globe Life Field.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest -7° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for pitching.. Because of Patrick Sandoval's large platoon split, Corey Seager will be at an enormous disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in today's game.. Among every team in action today, the 5th-best infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox.
KC
@
HOU
Tue, Sep 15 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+185)
Projection 1.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Salvador Perez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. Salvador Perez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.1% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros.. Salvador Perez has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph to 93.4-mph over the past week.. Over the last week, Salvador Perez's 55.6% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.4%.
Total Bases
Jeremy Pena o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jeremy Pena's batting average talent is projected to be in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jeremy Pena is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game.. Jeremy Pena pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.7% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Jeremy Pena will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.. Jeremy Pena has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.4-mph to 90.5-mph over the past week.
SD
@
COL
Tue, Sep 15 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jackson Merrill o0.5 Total Home Runs (+419)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 25%. Jackson Merrill is seeing the ball extremely well, combining three homers over the last week with elite contact quality. His 60.9% hard-hit rate and 26.1% barrel rate during that stretch jump off the page, and both Freeland and Colorado’s bullpen have been vulnerable to the long ball.
Total
u11.5 (-114)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 55%. Coors Field always carries scoring upside, but 11.5 gives us plenty of breathing room. San Diego’s bullpen has been reliable recently, and Colorado’s offense hasn’t produced consistently enough to trust in a shootout. The Rockies may allow plenty, but I still prefer the Under at this inflated number.
SEA
@
LAA
Tue, Sep 15 • 9:38 PM ET
Total Hits
Dominic Canzone u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.94
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #5 park in MLB for suppressing batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Dominic Canzone in today's matchup.. Compared to his seasonal mark of 10.4°, Dominic Canzone has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (5.3°) over the last 14 days.. Despite posting a .345 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Dominic Canzone has had positive variance on his side given the .019 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .326.
Total Bases
Cal Raleigh o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Cal Raleigh as Major League Baseball's 4th-best home run batter.. Cal Raleigh is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.. Angel Stadium has the lowest fences in Major League Baseball.. High humidity has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the highest humidity on the slate today at 77%.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.6-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats.
MIA
@
AZ
Tue, Sep 15 • 9:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Xavier Edwards o0.5 Total RBIs (+244)
Projection 0.45
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Xavier Edwards is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 3rd-best park in baseball for boosting offensive stats to lefties.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. The switch-hitting Xavier Edwards will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Michael Soroka.. Xavier Edwards has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 89.3-mph average to last year's 85.6-mph mark.
Total Bases
Heriberto Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.96
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run ability, Heriberto Hernandez ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Heriberto Hernandez is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 3rd-best ballpark in MLB for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation in the league, which often leads to higher offensive output.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.
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You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
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Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
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MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
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Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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