MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Comerica Park as the 11th-worst field in the majors for right-handed BABIP.. The weather report expects temperatures in this game to drop to the 2nd-lowest level on the slate today at 46°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. Matt Vierling has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 10th-deepest RF fences today.. In the past 14 days, Matt Vierling has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.. As it relates to his batting average, Matt Vierling has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His .227 mark has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .207.

Brewers hitters have teed off on Jake Irvin in the past, slashing .317/.403/.557 heading into Friday’s matchup. With Jacob Misiorowski leading the NL in strikeouts, expect Milwaukee to cover as road favorites in the nation’s capital.

The Cincinnati Reds send Brady Singer to the mound tonight, and he’s limited the Pittsburgh Pirates to a .234 average in 77 at-bats while allowing three runs or fewer in three straight starts. Pittsburgh is hitting .244 against righties and enters on a five-game skid. Mitch Keller has struggled at home lately, while Cincinnati’s strong 10-3 road record adds confidence.

This is a tough spot for the Baltimore Orioles, sending Triple-A call-up Cade Povich to face one of the hottest lineups in baseball with a depleted bullpen behind him. The New York Yankees present Povich with the same problem they’ve posed to so many starters this season: a chase-reliant arm facing the team with the lowest chase rate in baseball. That will force Povich to rely on competitive pitches like the heater, and that introduces a whole host of issues as New York enters this game ranking first in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate against the fastball over the last month. I’ve projected the Yankees at -200, so while we are laying some juice, it’s worth it considering the Baltimore pitching situation.

Zack Wheeler showed little rust in his season debut, holding a top-tier Atlanta Braves offense to two runs over five innings while striking out six. The velocity was high, indicating he’s already close to 100%. If Wheeler is on his game, he doesn’t need much support to grind out wins – and he should get it against the Miami Marlins.

The Boston Red Sox return home on a two-game skid under the new skipper, scoring a total of one run in the last two games. The Sox are just 5-8 at home, however. Meanwhile, the Houston Astros just completed a tough portion of the schedule with series against two first-place teams and another winning one. Yordan Alvarez leads this Houston offense and he leads the AL in all three Triple Crown categories as he just finished a 13-game hitting streak.

This matchup has all the makings of a low-scoring game with both offenses struggling against left-handed pitching. The Giants have been especially bad, sitting at 27th in OPS vs LHP over the past two weeks. That’s good news for Shane McClanahan and Robbie Ray, who are both in strong form right now. McClanahan continues his career pattern of being strong at home, while Ray has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in five of his six starts this season. San Francisco’s red-hot bullpen only strengthens the case for the Under.

Simeon Woods Richardson is 0-4 with a 6.30 ERA this season, and he's currently allowing a .902 opponent OPS. The Minnesota Twins right-hander has also been roughed up by this Toronto Blue Jays lineup, which owns a 1.237 OPS against Woods-Richardson. In three career starts against Toronto, including one from earlier this year, the Twins starter owns an 11.25 career ERA, allowing five runs in each start. Having surrendered 3+ runs in four straight outings, expect SWR’s struggles to continue against a Jays offense that is starting to heat up and get healthy.

Liberatore is a pitcher with a career 5.04 xERA who has long struggled to keep batters from reaching base (1.39 WHIP), and LA’s star-studded lineup should capitalize. His pitching counterpart, Emmet Sheehan, is dealing with decreased velocity. He’s averaging 94.6 mph on his heater after sitting at 95.4 in each of his first two seasons in the league. His stuff (91 Stuff+) has been poor, and the Cardinals are good enough against RHP (104 wRC+) to hope for a few runs on Friday.

With a poor weather slate, let’s head to Coors Field and take the most probable home-run hitter in that game, per Covers projections. I have Grant Holmes circled as a fade. He gave up a pair of dingers in his last start, and his Blast Contact numbers, HR/FB rate, and xFIP all point to more longballs coming. He’s also pitched at Coors before (2024) and allowed five runs over five innings. Hunter Goodman has homered in three straight series and launched two vs. the Cincinnati Reds just two games ago. He has four HRs over his last six games and hasn’t even needed Coors to go deep this year, with nine homers already on the road in 2026. There aren’t many +EV home-run looks today, but Goodman is always worth a play at +350 or better.

The Angels are not set up well to break their six-game losing streak.

Walbert Urena has struggled through three starts, losing each of them while posting an alarming 2.21 WHIP.

He’s unlikely to give the Angels much length, and their bullpen carries the same flaws. Angels relievers rank 29th in WHIP, ahead of only the Houston Astros.

Christian Scott is a serviceable arm and the Mets have the second ranked bullpen behind him in terms of FIP. If they can get out in front, their bullpen should protect the lead.

The Chicago White Sox have one of the best hitting matchups on the slate, and Miguel Vargas at +570 offers the best +EV in the lineup. Vargas has boosted his OPS from .593 to .805 over the last 10 days, including four homers. He’s drawing more walks than strikeouts and is seeing the ball well with a .511 OBP. The real target here is Germán Márquez and a San Diego Padres bullpen that has been hit around lately. Márquez owns some of the worst Blast Contact numbers, his fly balls are leaving the yard at a high rate, and he has one of the worst xFIPs among MLB starters. Add in a Padres bullpen with the third-worst ERA over the last two weeks, and it sets up well for Chicago bats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Sutter Health Park as the 10th-best park in the league for left-handed batting average.. Sutter Health Park has the 3rd-lowest fences among all parks.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the most favorable hitting conditions of the day.. Bo Naylor will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against J.T. Ginn in today's matchup... and even better, Ginn has a large platoon split.. Extreme groundball bats like Bo Naylor tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like J.T. Ginn.

The Seattle Mariners took two of three from the Twins and carry momentum into this matchup. Despite a rough last outing, Bryan Woo has been dominant at home, posting a 2.77 ERA in Seattle. He faces a Kansas City Royals offense averaging just 4.1 runs per game. Meanwhile, Cole Ragans has struggled on the road, owning an 8.40 ERA away from home.