MLB Picks

Recent history and current form both point toward a low-scoring matchup in Pittsburgh. Three of the last four meetings between these clubs have stayed Under, while both starters are trending positively. Aaron Nola has settled down lately, and Braxton Ashcraft continues to pitch consistently. With both bullpens also performing better recently, runs could be limited tonight.

Littell is one of the worst starters in baseball and profiles as a perfect pitcher fade for home runs, sitting in the bottom 15 in BlastContact%, HR/FB rate, and xFIP. It’s tough to go wrong with any Baltimore bat here, especially with one of the league’s worst bullpens likely being asked to cover four-plus innings. Littell worked as a bulk reliever last game and has thrown 69, 41, and 84 pitches over his last three outings. He’s also allowed multiple home runs in five of his eight appearances. Pete Alonso is a buy down to +290 today, and this number is dropping quickly. 

The Tigers rank 25th in wOBA over the past two weeks, and Blue Jays righty Trey Yesavage has pitched a scoreless opening frame in four of his six career starts. Turning to Detroit righty Ty Madden, he's been tough on right-handed hitters, and not only do the Blue Jays have a righty-heavy top of the lineup, they’re also tied for the seventh-highest percentage of games not scoring in the first inning (74.42%).

The Brewers are turning to Chad Patrick to start Friday, and he’s pitched a scoreless opening frame in four of five starts while holding opposing hitters to a .599 OPS. Twins righty Joe Ryan has also tossed three consecutive scoreless opening innings to improve to 7-2 this season while holding opposing bats to a similar .587 OPS.

Tanner Bibee has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of five home starts this season. The Reds continue to struggle offensively on the road, ranking in the bottom third of MLB in both runs and OPS, which has contributed to an eight-game road skid. Cleveland has also thrived against left-handed starters with an 11-3 record, while Cincinnati’s bullpen ranks dead last in both ERA and FIP since May 1.

It’s Rivalry Weekend in MLB, and the Subway Series gets underway at Citi Field on Friday. If you’re going to give me an edge on the New York Yankees with Cam Schlittler on the mound, I’m taking it without hesitation. The Yankees are trading around -150, but I price them closer to -170 favorites in this matchup against the New York Mets. Clay Holmes gets the start for the Mets, and as a right-handed pitcher who relies heavily on a sinker and a sharp slider that moves more like a sweeper, this isn’t an ideal matchup for him. Those pitches tend to lose some effectiveness against left-handed hitters, and the Yankees lineup is loaded with left-handed bats. Outside of Aaron Judge and Anthony Volpe, much of the Yankees lineup will hit from the left side, and I think they can generate a ton of traffic on the bases against Holmes.

Burke has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his past six starts. With a strong, in-form bullpen backing him up, the White Sox should limit a Cubs offense that has scored five runs over the past five games. Cabrera is sporting a 33.1 FB% this season. His ability to keep the ball on the ground equips him to slow down a White Sox team that sits fifth in homers.

Leiter has allowed five hits or less in three of his past four starts and is coming off his best outing of the season against the Cubs. He is in a good spot to build on that performance vs. the Astros, who have cluster injuries on offense and rank 29th in runs scored since May 3. It's very possible the Rangers need 6+ runs to push this total Over, and they've only reached that mark 23% of the time.

This game has all the makings of a slugfest with winds blowing out at Coors Field and a starting pitching matchup that’s tough on the eyes. I have Merrill Kelly ranked as the worst starter on the board today, and he sits at the bottom of the league in BlastContact%. Alex Freeland isn’t exactly a household name, but backing the Colorado Rockies in the first game of a series against the Arizona Diamondbacks at plus money makes sense. Arizona still has to deal with the usual Colorado adjustment and visual memory index that can impact teams arriving at Coors. The Over 12 is also in play here, and both offenses could get going early.

Recent meetings between the Padres and Mariners have been low-scoring, and tonight’s pitching matchup points toward another tight contest. Vasquez continues to thrive on the road, while Hancock has largely kept damage under control despite one rough outing. Both offenses rank near the bottom of MLB in key categories, and each bullpen has been reliable, making a low-scoring opener likely.

Henry Bolte was built for a Friday dinger. The two-game rookie who hit 12 HRs in Triple-A last year in just 37 games has three hits in the big leagues and already owns the second-fastest bat speed in the Athletics lineup. Nick Kurtz is +265 to go deep, and there’s no way the rookie should be 3x that price vs. Tyler Mahle and his awful HR/FB rate. Every one of Bolte’s swings through two games has been classified as a fast swing (75+ mph), compared to hitters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sitting around 63%. The kid has a clear home-run swing, the right matchup, and the ideal setting today. This might be the last time we see his HR price above +500, especially at Sutter Health Park.

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.