The baseball gods owe me one today. I started the week in the black before back-to-back donuts, so I’m cashing in the home-run luck card on a loaded Friday slate.
The projections are finally opening up with more than two dozen +EV names and MLB player props showing value, and a long list of pitchers begging to be faded.
That fade list starts with Zack Littell against Baltimore, and Aaron Civale in Sacramento.
These are my favorite home run bets for Friday, May 15.
Best MLB home run props today
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Heliot Ramos
Pete Alonso
Home run pick: Heliot Ramos (+475)
Heliot Ramos and the San Francisco Giants have a great home run matchup today at Sutter Health Park with slight winds blowing out to right field and Aaron Civale on the mound.
The Athletics starter gives up fast swings and loud contact. His expected metrics suggest that shiny ERA isn’t built to last. He also owns one of the lower ground-ball rates in baseball, and that 0.86 HR/9 feels more likely to climb toward his career mark of 1.30.
Like many pitchers, his numbers in Sacramento are also much worse than they are on the road.
Ramos projects as the best +EV home run play on the board today, according to the projections at Covers. The fair price for the middle-of-the-order bat is around +330, and he’ll also get a chance to attack an Athletics bullpen that owns the second-worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks and has been heavily used this week.
Outside of the Coors Field game, this matchup carries the biggest total on the board. Bombs away, boys.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, NBCSBA
Home run pick: Pete Alonso (+353)
If Zack Littell doesn’t get pummeled today, I’ll be at a loss for words. He’s one of the worst starters in baseball and profiles as a perfect pitcher fade for home runs, sitting in the bottom 15 in BlastContact%, HR/FB rate, and xFIP.
It’s tough to go wrong with any Baltimore bat here, especially with one of the league’s worst bullpens likely being asked to cover four-plus innings. Littell worked as a bulk reliever last game and has thrown 69, 41, and 84 pitches over his last three outings. He’s also allowed multiple home runs in five of his eight appearances.
Pete Alonso is a buy down to +290 today, and this number is dropping quickly. Taylor Ward grades as the better +EV play according to Covers projections, but he’s launched just one longball this year and Alonso has been one of the better bats to back all season.
If you want to get really aggressive, I’d build a home run round robin with Adley Rutschman (+620) and Gunnar Henderson (+361). If you’re hunting home runs, the Orioles might be the best target on the board today.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Nationals.TV, MASN
- HR picks: 13-74, -6.94 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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