MLB Picks

Richie Palacios's BABIP ability is projected in the 14th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Richie Palacios is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects American Family Field as the 10th-worst ballpark in the game for lefty batting average.. Richie Palacios pulls many of his flyballs (35.2% — 85th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 7th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.

As it relates to his home run talent, Junior Caminero ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. American Family Field has the 7th-shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball.. Among all major league parks, American Family Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Using Statcast data, Junior Caminero ranks in the 97th percentile for power per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 36.400.

Mike Trout doesn't need much of an invitation, and Taillon is practically rolling out the red carpet. 

Ten home runs and nine walks in just 13.1 spring training innings tell you that this is a pitcher who can't find the zone and is getting destroyed when he does. 

Trout has already taken Taillon deep in their career matchup. The Angeles slugger launched two bombs on Opening Day at Houston, and I’ll back him to do it again Tuesday night at Wrigley.

 

José Soriano is riding a 29.2% strikeout rate and a jaw-dropping 41.3% whiff rate through his 2026 opener. This follows a strong spring where the Los Angeles Angels righty struck out 13 across 11 ⅔ and eight per nine frames in 2025. 

Cold, heavy air at Wrigley Field plays right into Soriano's hard sinker and devastating slider combo. Back him to punch out at least five on Tuesday night.

Carson Benge has been hitting the cover off the ball since making his MLB debut this season, and with a number this high opposite a pitcher who can't miss bats, it's all about value.

The Mets make consistent contact, which will bode well against Cardinals starting pitcher Andre Pallante, who doesn't miss bats and boasted the fourth-highest ERA in MLB among qualified starters last year.

There is fantastic value on backing Red Sox third baseman Marcelo Mayer to hit a home run at +800 . The 23-year-old flashed power in his brief MLB stint last year and his peripherals have been outstanding this season. While he hasn't hit a homer so far, he has two doubles and his hard-hit rate (57.1%) and barrel rate (28.6%) are elite. He also has the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown. Brown is a stud but that hard-throwing righty gave up 10 dingers in 14 home starts last year and Houston's relievers are vulnerable to the long ball.

The Astros clobbered the Red Sox 8-1 yesterday and have a significant pitching advantage today. Boston is starting Brayan Bello who was in the bottom 25th percentile in xERA (4.48) and xBA (.258) last year. Meanwhile, Houston's Hunter Brown was third in AL Cy Young voting after pitching to a 2.43 ERA with an OBA of .201. Brown made his season debut last week and fanned nine through 4 2/3 scoreless innings but walked four batters. Control wasn't an issue for Brown last year so expect him settle in and mow down batters tonight. 

If you’re a fan of backing elite starting pitchers, you’ll love this bet—we’re getting Logan Webb at a much better price than we should on Tuesday. The San Francisco Giants are trading as a -135 favorite, and I see clear value, as I price them closer to -190. The Giants are 1–3 to start the season, but Rafael Devers and Luis Arraez profile very well at the top of the order against Germán Márquez, who relies heavily on his fastball. The humidity in San Diego is also expected to be high on Tuesday, which should further enhance the effectiveness of Logan Webb’s sinker.

Matt Chapman has made a lot of powerful contact out of the gate. He is responsible for the three hardest hit balls the Giants have this season, indicating the production is not far off.

Chapman has enjoyed a lot of success against German Marquez in his career. He is 6-15 with four hits going for extra bases, three of which left the park.

Giancarlo Stanton’s raw power makes him attractive here. Over four games, he’s posted one of the highest chase contact numbers of his career. 

The sample is hardly meaningful but if it can continue for another night, it will give him a boost in this matchup as Gilbert is a chase reliant pitcher. Stanton gets to one and it’s likely going to be hit quite hard.

Logan Gilbert's 32% strikeout rate ranked in the 94th percentile last season, and his 33% whiff rate sat 93rd. Those are not empty numbers. He posted an 11.9 K/9 last year across 131 innings, and the New York Yankees are the right matchup to push him over this number. If Gilbert records 18 outs, his strikeout total projects to just over 8. I’ll take that at this price point.

Greene is hitting just .176 this season, but he finally found a bit of an offensive rhythm on Monday, finishing 2-for-5 with a pair of singles. Sometimes, all a hitter needs is some confidence to get them going, and Greene has homered against Pfaadt before, who gave up 26 bombs last season. Greene clubbed 36 bombs last year as well. 

Dingler is off to a red-hot start in this young 2026 campaign, batting .333 with five RBIs already. The catcher drove in a run in Monday’s loss, and he’s recorded at least one RBI in three of Detroit’s four games so far. He has an RBI against Pfaadt in two at-bats. 

Bibee’s primary flaw is the home run ball. He allowed 1.33 HR/9 a year ago despite a 10-point uptick in groundball rate.

Max Muncy posted 16 of his 19 home runs off right-handed pitchers a season ago, tagging them for a 157 wRC+ with substantial power (.247 ISO). He hits Bibee’s three-pitch mix against lefties (primarily four-seamers and change-ups with a dash of cutters) well, with decreased whiff rates and increased effectiveness against all three offerings.

Shohei Ohtani’s arsenal of pitches is downright filthy (115 Stuff+), and he was dominant at home a season ago (.151 BAA, 1.71 ERA). 

There’s a fully stocked bullpen behind him after Sunday’s off day and yesterday’s three-pitcher outing, so they should limit a Cleveland Guardians lineup with poor numbers (.279 wOBA, 79 wRC+). 

Tanner Bibee (104 Stuff+) has been a dependable arm, recording an xERA below 3.75 in each of the last three seasons (87 starts). The weather favors these two strong starting pitchers, as there’ll be rain in Southern California.