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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 16, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.02 |
+150 
|
o7.5 -105 
|
+1.5 -149 
|
|
4.57 |
-170 
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +130
|
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 5-0 in Kays last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a road favorite.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Edgar Quero o0.5 Total RBIs (+329)
o0.5+329
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.03 |
+140
|
o7.5 -128
|
+1.5 -159 
|
|
4.83 |
-157
|
u8.5 -124 
|
-1.5 +145
|
San Francisco
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 on grass.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0 in Liberatores last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Jordan Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+144)
o0.5+145
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.21 |
-140
|
o7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
4.22 |
+125
|
u8.5 -130 
|
+1.5 -135
|
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 7-0 in Rodons last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Yankees are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Minnesota
- Under is 5-0 in Matthews' last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Twins are 4-0 in Matthews' last 4 starts with 6 days of rest.
Top Projection
Aaron Judge o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
o0.5+160
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.87 |
+105
|
o8.5 -103
|
+1.5 -198
|
|
4.59 |
-118
|
u8.5 -114
|
-1.5 +170
|
Detroit
- Over is 4-0-2 in Tigers last 6 overall.
- Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Tigers are 6-0 in Monteros last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Toronto
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Hao-Yu Lee o0.5 Total RBIs (+237)
o0.5+237
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.37 |
+165
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -134
|
|
4.80 |
-185
|
u8.5 -130
|
-1.5 +120
|
Athletics
- are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 games following a loss.
- Over is 7-2 in last 9 road games.
- Over is 5-1 in last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 9-0 in Martinezs last 9 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
o1.5+140
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.71 |
-210
|
o8.5 +100
|
-1.5 -125
|
|
4.20 |
+180
|
u8.5 -105
|
+1.5 +105
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 5-0 in Dodgers last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Top Projection
Kyle Tucker o1.5 Total Bases (+163)
o1.5+163
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.67 |
-135
|
o7.5 -112
|
-1.5 +126
|
|
4.53 |
+120
|
u7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -140
|
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 5-0 in Hendersons last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Brewers are 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Brewers last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 home games.
- Pirates are 9-0 in Jones' last 9 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Jones' last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
o0.5+210
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.28 |
-190
|
o8.5 -110
|
-1.5 -110
|
|
4.36 |
+170
|
u8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -104
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Phillies last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 vs. National League East.
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
Top Projection
CJ Abrams o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
o1.5+171
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.41 |
+120
|
o8.5 -125
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
5.33 |
-138
|
u9.0 -115
|
-1.5 +146
|
Baltimore
- Over is 8-0 in Bassitts last 8 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 7-0 in Bassitts last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 9-0 in Bassitts last 9 road starts.
- Over is 5-0 in Bassitts last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
NY Mets
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mets are 4-0 in Stocks last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mets are 4-0 in Stocks last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.01 |
+120
|
o7.5 -115 
|
+1.5 -176
|
|
4.63 |
-140
|
u8.0 -120
|
-1.5 +150
|
Atlanta
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Braves last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 6-0 in Imanagas last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Imanagas last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+191)
o0.5+210
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.15 |
-108
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
3.99 |
-108
|
u8.5 -130
|
-1.5 +150
|
Boston
- Over is 5-0 in Bennetts last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Bennetts last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 overall.
Texas
- Rangers are 6-0 in Gores last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0 in Rangers last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rangers are 6-0 in Gores last 6 home starts.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Wilyer Abreu o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
o0.5+184
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.45 |
+121
|
o8.0 -165
|
+2.5 -265
|
|
4.79 |
-140
|
u9.0 -114
|
-2.5 +205
|
Kansas City
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 overall.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Royals last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 home games.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Astros last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Jac Caglianone o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-110)
o1.5-105
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.16 |
-165
|
o10.0 -186
|
-1.5 -110
|
|
5.47 |
+145
|
u11.5 -120
|
+1.5 -104
|
San Diego
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 road games.
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 games as a road favorite.
Colorado
- Over is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 games a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rockies last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Top Projection
Manny Machado o0.5 Total RBIs (+100)
o0.5+105
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.56 |
-135
|
o7.0 -200
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
4.30 |
+120
|
u8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -145
|
Seattle
- Over is 5-0 in Kirbys last 5 road starts.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 8-1 in Mariners last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 5-1 in Kirbys last 6 starts on grass.
LA Angels
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kikuchis last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kikuchis last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Kikuchis last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kikuchis last 5 starts overall.
Top Projection
Jose Siri o0.5 Total RBIs (+295)
o0.5+295
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.83 |
+115
|
o8.0 -162
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
5.34 |
-130
|
u9.0 -110
|
-1.5 +160
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0 in Marlins last 7 games following a win.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 during game 3 of a series.
Arizona
- Over is 5-0-2 in Kellys last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Kellys last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Top Projection
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
o0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.40 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.92 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Milwaukee
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
- Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 home games.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.56 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.70 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Dodgers are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 7-2 in Dodgers last 9 road games.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 during game 4 of a series.
- Under is 7-1 in Singers last 8 starts vs. National League West.
- Under is 4-1 in Singers last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.76 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.81 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Athletics
- Over is 7-0 in Springs' last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 6-0 in Springs' last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 during game 3 of a series.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 7-0 in Rasmussens last 7 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Rays are 5-0 in Rasmussens last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Rays are 5-0 in Rasmussens last 5 starts on fieldturf.
- Rays are 6-0 in Rasmussens last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.99 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.43 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
San Diego
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 road games.
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 games as a road favorite.
Colorado
- Under is 5-0-1 in Gordons last 6 starts vs. National League West.
- Over is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 games a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.75 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.79 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Kansas City
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 overall.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Royals last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 home games.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.98 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.06 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 vs. National League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 on grass.
NY Mets
- Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League East.
- Mets are 5-0 in McLeans last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Mets are 4-0 in McLeans last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 2-0-2 in McLeans last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.55 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.52 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Detroit
- Over is 4-0-2 in Tigers last 6 overall.
- Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Tigers last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 on grass.
- Over is 41-12 in White Sox last 53 during game 1 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.24 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.00 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Boston
- Under is 5-0 in Grays last 5 starts as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Grays last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 overall.
Texas
- Over is 5-0-2 in Rangers last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Rangers last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Rangers last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.01 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.91 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Minnesota
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Twins last 7 vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 games as a road underdog.
LA Angels
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in Angels last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in Angels last 5 home games.
- Under is 15-3 in Angels last 18 vs. American League Central.
CHW
@
CLE
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Nathaniel Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+255)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Progressive Field grades out as the #2 field in the game for left-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report projects the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate today at 81%.. Nathaniel Lowe has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. The Chicago White Sox outfield defense projects as the 2nd-worst out of every team today.
Total Bases
Munetaka Murakami o1.5 Total Bases (+200)
Projection 1.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Munetaka Murakami projects as the 2nd-best home run hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Munetaka Murakami is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game.. Progressive Field grades out as the #2 field in the game for left-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report projects the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate today at 81%.. In the last week, Munetaka Murakami's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 100.2-mph over the course of the season to 103.7-mph lately.
SF
@
STL
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:15 PM ET
Total Hits
JC
Jonah Cox u0.5 Total Hits (+155)
Projection 0.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
In today's game, Jonah Cox is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.2% rate (97th percentile).. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jonah Cox in today's matchup.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Jonah Cox's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.8% down to 0%.. Jonah Cox has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88-mph dropping to 81.1-mph in the past week's worth of games.. Compared to his seasonal figure of 10.7°, Jonah Cox has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (2°) in the last two weeks.
Total RBIs
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
Projection 0.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Among all major league parks, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 89°.. Batting from the opposite that Anthony Molina throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an edge in today's matchup.. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense belongs to the San Francisco Giants.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage in today's game.
NYY
@
MIN
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:40 PM ET
Moneyline
NYY (-145)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
Total Bases
Josh Bell u1.5 Total Bases (-220)
Projection 0.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #5 venue in the game for suppressing home runs to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. The 10th-deepest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Target Field.. In the majors, the 5th-highest fences are at Target Field.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. The switch-hitting Josh Bell will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side (0) today against Carlos Rodon
DET
@
TOR
Wed, Sep 16 • 3:07 PM ET
Total Bases
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his batting average ability, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the 3rd-best batter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Rogers Centre ranks as the #5 park in baseball for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hold that advantage today.
Total Bases
Spencer Torkelson o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Torkelson in the 93rd percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Rogers Centre ranks as the #5 park in baseball for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Rogers Centre.. Spencer Torkelson has averaged 30.4 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, placing in the 89th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. When it comes to power, Spencer Torkelson finds himself in the 75th percentile, having averaged 24.7 homers per 600 plate appearances this year.
ATH
@
TB
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Zack Gelof o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run talent, Zack Gelof ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Zack Gelof is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Tropicana Field projects as the #1 stadium in the league for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Zack Gelof has a ton of pop (83rd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (27.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Nick Martinez struggles to strike batters out (16th percentile K%) — great news for Gelof.. Zack Gelof has made big improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 9.8% seasonal rate to 21.2% over the past two weeks.
Total Bases
Jonathan Aranda o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.63
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The #1 ballpark in the game for boosting home runs to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Jonathan Aranda has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Out of all the teams playing today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the Athletics.
LAD
@
CIN
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
JJ Bleday o1.5 Total Bases (+241)
Projection 1.39
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Great American Ball Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for LHB home runs.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate at 89°.. JJ Bleday pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.5% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences today.. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in action today.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and JJ Bleday will hold that advantage today.
Total Bases
Sal Stewart o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Sal Stewart's batting average talent is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Sal Stewart is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Great American Ball Park as the 4th-best venue in baseball for RHB home runs.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the highest temperatures on the slate at 89°.. Batting from the opposite that Blake Snell throws from, Sal Stewart will have an edge in today's game.
MIL
@
PIT
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Ryan O'Hearn o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 1.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. The #3 field in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Ryan O'Hearn will have the handedness advantage over Logan Henderson in today's game.
Total Bases
Jackson Chourio o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 1.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio as the 16th-best batter in baseball when estimating his batting average skill.. Jackson Chourio is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. PNC Park profiles as the #3 field in the majors for right-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. In comparison to his 89.3-mph average last year, Jackson Chourio's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 91.7 mph.
PHI
@
WAS
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:45 PM ET
Total Bases
Abimelec Ortiz o1.5 Total Bases (+198)
Projection 1.32
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Abimelec Ortiz is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The 6th-shallowest RF dimensions among all parks are found in Nationals Park.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°.. Because of Zack Wheeler's large platoon split, Abimelec Ortiz will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.. Abimelec Ortiz will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.
Total Bases
Daylen Lile o1.5 Total Bases (+153)
Projection 1.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daylen Lile in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.. The 6th-shallowest RF dimensions among all parks are found in Nationals Park.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°.. Given Zack Wheeler's large platoon split, Daylen Lile will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today.. Daylen Lile will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.
BAL
@
NYM
Wed, Sep 16 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Francisco Lindor o0.5 Total Home Runs (+381)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 25%. Francisco Lindor's power has picked up considerably, with three homers across his last six games and a .409 ISO during that stretch. He's also generating plenty of fly balls and hard contact, while Bassitt has allowed 1.53 HR/9 on the road. Lindor has an appealing profile at this number.
Total
o8.5 (-123)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 57%. Both offenses are producing right now, with the Mets posting a 120 wRC+ over the last week. Neither starter has been particularly dominant this season, while New York's shaky bullpen adds another path to late runs. Baltimore's relievers aren't a concern, but 8.5 still looks reachable.
ATL
@
CHC
Wed, Sep 16 • 7:40 PM ET
Moneyline
ATL (+121)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
At 45%, give me the Atlanta Braves to defeat the Chicago Cubs, as I think they should be trading closer to 49% in this matchup. JR Ritchie is on the mound for the Braves, but I don't expect him to go deep into the game. Fortunately, Atlanta has the relievers necessary to piece together a strong pitching performance against the left-handed bats in the Cubs' lineup. Left-handed reliever Dylan Lee hasn't pitched yet in this series, Raisel Iglesias has always been tough on left-handed hitters because of his changeup, and the Braves have multiple other lefties in the bullpen in Ray Kerr and Dylan Dodd. This breakdown is about neutralizing the power of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch, if that wasn't obvious already. The Cubs' bullpen, on the other hand, ranks last in fWAR over the last 30 days.
Total Bases
Austin Riley u1.5 Total Bases (-235)
Projection 0.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Austin Riley is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.. The league's 7th-highest fences can be found at Wrigley Field.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 2nd-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Typically, bats like Austin Riley who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Shota Imanaga.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the best infield defense belongs to the Chicago Cubs.
BOS
@
TEX
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:05 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
MacKenzie Gore o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+130)
Projection 5.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts MacKenzie Gore in the 86th percentile among all starting pitchers in Major League Baseball.. MacKenzie Gore has averaged 94.5 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, placing in the 90th percentile.. The Boston Red Sox have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Roman Anthony, Jahmai Jones, Trevor Story).. Nick Mahrley grades out as a Pitchers Umpire and is likely to be calling pitches in this game.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -8° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.
Total Bases
Wilyer Abreu o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. In the majors, Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. In the last week, Wilyer Abreu's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.6% up to 23.5%.. Compared to last season, Wilyer Abreu has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 16.7% to 22% this season.
KC
@
HOU
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Jose Altuve u0.5 Total Hits (+202)
Projection 0.93
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #3 stadium in the league for suppressing batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to less offense.. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.. Among all the teams playing today, the best infield defense is that of the Kansas City Royals.. Jose Altuve's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off in recent games; his 92.1-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 88.6-mph over the last 14 days.
Total RBIs
Yordan Alvarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best batter in MLB.. Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Dingers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Yordan Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's game.. In the last 7 days, Yordan Alvarez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.5-mph over the course of the season to 105.2-mph lately.
SD
@
COL
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Jake Cronenworth o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
Projection 0.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Coors Field ranks as the #1 park in the game for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league parks, which often leads to more offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Mason Adams throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have the upper hand today.. Compared to his seasonal average of 10.8°, Jake Cronenworth has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 27.8° angle in the last week.. Despite posting a .269 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jake Cronenworth has had some very poor luck given the .037 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .306.
Total Bases
Xander Bogaerts o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Coors Field ranks as the #1 park in the game for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league parks, which often leads to more offense.. Xander Bogaerts has been unlucky this year, compiling a .291 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .330 — a .039 difference.. Utilizing Statcast data, Xander Bogaerts grades out in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .272.
SEA
@
LAA
Wed, Sep 16 • 9:38 PM ET
Moneyline
LAA (+120)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
I have this price at 44.4%. The Mariners are done for the season, and this road trip is getting ugly. Seattle could get swept by the Angels after dropping its series to the Athletics prior. The pitching is hitting a wall, with the fourth-worst xERA in September, and the pitching matchup might favor the home team, with Yusei Kikuchi looking sharp over his last three games, allowing three runs over 17 innings while striking out a batter per inning. George Kirby is coming off back-to-back 100-pitch games for the first time this season and is pitching to a 6.48 ERA over the last 30 days with an ugly 1.71 WHIP. The Mariners also have to head to Colorado after this series for a weekend set, making this one of the longer travel spots on the board and a potential getaway-letdown spot for the visitors.
Moneyline
LAA (+118)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Yusei Kikuchi’s season numbers aren’t pretty, but his recent form tells a different story, allowing just three earned runs over his last 17 innings. Neither offense inspires much confidence, so I’m happy to take the plus money with the hotter starter. Kikuchi also owns a 1.32 ERA across six career starts against Seattle.
MIA
@
AZ
Wed, Sep 16 • 9:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Lars Nootbaar o0.5 Total RBIs (+193)
Projection 0.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 3rd-best stadium in the majors for boosting offensive stats to LHB.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
Total Home Runs
Kyle Stowers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+500)
Projection 0.21
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 96th percentile when estimating his home run ability.. Kyle Stowers is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Kyle Stowers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly in today's matchup.
BOS
@
TEX
Thu, Sep 17 • 8:05 PM ET
Moneyline
BOS (-119)
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor
Sonny Gray has become somewhat of an ageless wonder for the Red Sox, and the veteran right-hander has limited Texas hitters to a lifetime .505 OPS. With Gray on the hill, Boston is playable to -135.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+124)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Aaron Judge projects as the best home run batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 7th-best ballpark in the league for RHB home runs.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitters such as Aaron Judge with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Drew Rasmussen who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Total RBIs
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
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Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
