Let's keep the good vibes rolling with my top home run props and predictions for today's slate.
Find out why I am backing Junior Caminero and Pete Alonso to go yard in my favorite MLB picks for Tuesday, Sept. 15.
Best MLB home run props today
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Junior Caminero
Pete Alonso
Home run pick: Junior Caminero
The pride of Tampa, Mr. Junior Caminero, finds himself in yet another boom spot against Athletics right-hander Jack Perkins.
According to Batters-Box, through 40 elite ratings this season, the Tampa Bay Rays slugger has left the yard over 25% of the time. For those looking for a watered-down prop, he goes Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI over 66% of the time during that span.
Over Caminero's last 10 games, he has a .538 SLG and .282 ISO, with a near-50 % hard-contact rate and 15.2% barrel rate.
Over his last few games, Perkins has been getting lit up by right-handed hitters. The last 30 faced are generating a 15% barrel rate, 70% elevation rate, and own a .517 xSLG.
Take this down to 25% at most.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RAYS, NBCSCA
Home run pick: Pete Alonso
Many people will see that New York Mets left-hander Sean Manaea is on the mound this evening and SPRINT to bet on Coby Mayo, but today it is all about Pete Alonso.
Over his last 30 at-bats vs. southpaws, Alonso has seen and hit the ball better than anyone in the Baltimore Orioles lineup. The soon-to-be newest member of the 300-home run club owns a .565 SLG and .261 ISO while generating a hard-hit rate above 76% and a barrel rate over 23%.
All of those hard-hit and barreled balls fit perfectly with what Manaea has allowed to the last 30 right-handed hitters he has faced. Those right-handed hitters own a .408 xBA, .788 xSLG, and .307 ISO during that span.
Like Caminero, take this down to 25%.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNY, MASN
- HR picks: 127-436, +26.7 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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