MLB Picks

This matchup sets up as a low-scoring affair, with strong bullpen performance on both sides and neither offense generating much recent power. Milwaukee’s relief corps owns a 2.89 xERA over the last week, while the Cardinals and Brewers have posted modest recent ISO marks of .162 and .151, respectively.

Let's add another All-Star to the home run card at a +EV price of +575, with a fair price closer to +475. The Rookie of the Year frontrunner, Kevin McGonigle, is leading off and should get five plate appearances today against J.T. Ginn, who has been pitching above his underlying numbers all season. The Athletics' starter has also cut his HR/FB rate in half despite generating more fly-ball outs. Regression is coming. Detroit's offense also gets to tee off on an Athletics bullpen that owns the worst HR/FB rate in baseball over the last 30 days, the worst HR/9, and the second-worst ERA. Anything at +500 or better is a play on the rookie. There could also be multiple Tigers home runs today, with Spencer Torkelson (+469) and Riley Greene (+372) joining him as Detroit's most likely long-ball threats.

It's a big name at a big price with a nine-inning home run edge. Bobby Witt Jr. and the Kansas City offense get to face a tired Mets bullpen that used six arms yesterday and has leaned on its three best relievers in back-to-back games. New York is going with a bullpen game to add injury to insult, and this staff has allowed 29 runs over its last three games. Witt might only have three homers over the last 30 days, but he also missed a week, has nine games under his belt since returning, and ranks 10th in all of baseball in BlastContact% (23.2%) over that span. The home runs and hard contact are coming, and there could be a handful before the All-Star break. The Royals' shortstop might see three or four different pitchers today, but that also means he'll get plenty of plate appearances against the weaker arms in New York's bullpen over nine innings.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.