MLB Picks

The already poor New York Mets offense has been floundering lately, averaging just 2.6 runs per game over their last five outings. New York can hit the ball hard when they make contact, but Atlanta Braves starter Martin Perez has an excellent 48.2% ground ball rate while only allowing batters to barrel the ball up 6.8% of the time. I'm taking the Braves to win at -120 or better.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Curtis Mead ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Curtis Mead is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Nationals Park has the 9th-shallowest among all parks.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 2nd-most favorable hitting conditions of all games today.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Curtis Mead will hold that advantage in today's game.

JJ Bleday is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Great American Ball Park ranks as the #1 venue in the majors for lefty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. JJ Bleday will have the handedness advantage over Kyle Bradish in today's matchup.. The Baltimore Orioles have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so JJ Bleday stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.. JJ Bleday pulls many of his flyballs (37.3% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The Yankees have the better overall record, but they're just 13-16 since Aaron Judge went down and had four or fewer hits five times this week. The Yankees are also struggling on the other end, giving up 27 unearned runs in the last 14 games.

I’d take the Twins at anything above +100. They’re starting newly named All-Star Joe Ryan, who's in the 95th percentile in pitching run value.

Progressive Field has the 4th-highest fences in Major League Baseball.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for mound aces.. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Andrew Benintendi in today's matchup.. Andrew Benintendi's launch angle this season (16.3°) is considerably worse than his 20.6° figure last year.. Andrew Benintendi's launch angle recently (4.5° in the last two weeks) is a significant dropoff from his 16.3° seasonal figure.

Matthew Liberatore owns a 5.34 ERA and his xERA of 5.55 is even higher, ranking him in the ninth percentile league-wide.

The Chicago Cubs have feasted on lefties over the past five weeks, slotting first in wOBA, ISO, and OPS.

Look for their offense to lead the way. Bet to -160.

When estimating his BABIP ability, Justin Crawford is projected as the 8th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Kauffman Stadium as the 5th-best venue in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation in the majors, which tends to lead to better offense.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 86°.. Justin Crawford will hold the platoon advantage over Luinder Avila in today's matchup.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Long-balls are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the shallowest among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Peter Lambert throws from, Jonathan Aranda will have an edge today.. Posting a .290 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Jonathan Aranda has performed in the 94th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Osuna in the 6th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Alejandro Osuna has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 36% of the time when starting against a northpaw this year.. Globe Life Field ranks as the #30 ballpark in MLB for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Globe Life Field roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -14° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. Alejandro Osuna hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 3rd-best park in MLB for left-handed base hits.. Pavin Smith will hold the platoon advantage against Brandon Sproat in today's game.. Pavin Smith will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Pavin Smith's true offensive skill to be a .313, indicating that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .089 disparity between that figure and his actual .224 wOBA.. Pavin Smith has notched a .312 BABIP since the start of last season, checking in at the 76th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Casey Schmitt in the 83rd percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Casey Schmitt is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Coors Field projects as the #1 venue in MLB for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Coors Field sits at the highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 96°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Shea Langeliers in the 97th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Shea Langeliers is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Sutter Health Park profiles as the #2 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the league, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level on the slate today at 96°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Daulton Varsho is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.. T-Mobile Park has the 10th-shortest average fence height among all stadiums.. Daulton Varsho will have the handedness advantage against Emerson Hancock in today's matchup.. Daulton Varsho pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team today.

JP Sears has struggled, but his changeup should see positive regression. It owns roughly a .317 career xwOBA, far better than this year’s .649 mark. It's helpful that the Dodgers lineup includes a few names who have struggled against the changeup this season, too, with Freddie Freeman and Kyle Tucker owning negative run values against it. Emmet Sheehan also gives a path to enough offense. Good to -130.

The #7 field in Major League Baseball for suppressing offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. Jorge Soler pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.8% — 90th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.. Among every team today, the best infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.. Jorge Soler has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 11% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past week.. By putting up a .290 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Jorge Soler finds himself in the 17th percentile for offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Sproat throws from, Alec Burleson will have an edge today.. Alec Burleson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.