MLB Picks

Zack Wheeler draws a strong strikeout matchup against a struggling Marlins lineup that fanned ten times in their previous game. Miami’s road splits show elevated whiff rates, with multiple hitters carrying strikeout marks above 27.9%, including four above 30.6%. Wheeler’s recent profile supports upside, producing seven or more strikeouts in 68.75 percent of elite-rated starts and 76 percent when carrying a strong strikeout grade over a 25 game sample. At home he posts a 26.6% strikeout rate with a 36.1% chase rate outside the zone. The numbers point toward value on his strikeout prop at plus money tonight play

 Juan Soto 1.5 HRR at -115 stands out as strong value for one of baseball’s most consistent on-base threats. He has cleared this mark nearly 60% of the time in an elite 220 game sample. After a brief slump, Soto has regained form with an .868 OPS over his last 30 plate appearances versus right-handed pitching, backed by strong walk and hard contact rates. He also carries elite matchup coverage against Chase Burns. The Reds starter has struggled with lefties, allowing high elevation, barrel rates, and damaging expected metrics, making Soto’s 2+ HRR path highly appealing at this price.

The Angels are worth a look as a road underdog tonight behind the red-hot Walbert Ureña. The rookie right-hander has allowed one earned run or fewer in six of his last eight starts, while Arizona has struggled badly against right-handed pitching of late. Los Angeles also enters in better offensive form and gets a favorable matchup against Ryne Nelson, who owns a 5.19 ERA and was tagged for seven earned runs in his last outing.

The ballpark and weather conditions at Sutter Health Park play a major role in how I'm handicapping this matchup. With temperatures expected to reach 93 degrees, sunny skies, and a wind blowing out toward left-center field, the environment should be very favorable for hitters. JT Ginn, the Athletics' starting pitcher, relies heavily on his sinker to generate ground balls and keep the ball in the infield. On the other side, Pirates starter Jared Jones is a high-velocity arm who works at the top of the strike zone. When he misses his spots, however, he's prone to giving up plenty of fly balls. In these conditions, that's a dangerous profile. A routine fly ball that might die on the warning track at PNC Park can suddenly carry over the fence in Sacramento. That gives the Athletics a meaningful advantage in this specific environment. I make the Athletics closer to a -130 favorite in this matchup, which makes the current -113 price worth backing.

Junior Caminero is in a strong spot to go over 1.5 total bases against Dodgers left hander Eric Lauer. Lauer enters with one of the weakest pitcher ratings on the slate and grades poorly in key metrics like ISO, strikeout rate, and ground ball rate. He has also struggled at home versus right handed hitters, allowing a 71% elevation rate, while righties have produced a .504 xSLG, .349 xwOBA, and a 12% barrel rate against him. Caminero has been effective against lefties this season and is swinging it well lately with strong contact quality and extra base hit potential.

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.