MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on April 22, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

San Diego Padres logo SD @ Colorado Rockies logo COL Tue, Apr 21 • 8:40 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Brenton Doyle logo Brenton Doyle o0.5 Total Home Runs (+700)
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

Brenton Doyle might hit near the bottom of the Colorado Rockies lineup, but his +700 home run price at home vs. Randy Vásquez is a great number that I’d play down to +600. Coors Field is always a strong backdrop, but it stands out even more on this slate and projects as the top hitting environment on Tuesday. The snow is gone, temperatures are up to 80 degrees, and the wind is blowing out to left field — all pointing to a favorable home run setup. Vásquez can allow solid contact and ranks among the worst pitchers in baseball in Blast Contact% through the first month. Doyle may only have one homer so far, but it came against Vásquez two weeks ago, and he also brings one of the fastest swings in the Colorado lineup.

Total Bases
Hunter Goodman logo
Hunter Goodman o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 2.23
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Hunter Goodman as the majors's 19th-best home run batter.. Hunter Goodman is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. The #1 venue in baseball for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report calls for the most suitable hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Los Angeles Angels logo LAA Tue, Apr 21 • 9:38 PM ET
5 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. logo Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+600)
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Guerrero Jr. has been known to hit his homers in bunches, so I’ll bet on him getting another one tonight in Angel Stadium after going yard last night. Additionally, Vladdy does seem to torture sinker ballers. He has a 56.6% hard-hit rate against the pitch this season, while posting a .532 slug-rate against it in 2025.

 

Total Bases
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. logo Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball this season, batting .354, the second-highest average in the majors. Vladdy is also currently riding an 11-game hitting streak, averaging 2.54 bases per contest in that stretch. 

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Chicago White Sox logo CHW @ Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ Tue, Apr 21 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Munetaka Murakami logo
Munetaka Murakami u1.5 Total Bases (-165)
Projection 0.79
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
In Major League Baseball, the 10th-highest fence height (on average) are at Chase Field.. Today, Munetaka Murakami is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.8% rate (91st percentile).. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Munetaka Murakami in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Munetaka Murakami's true offensive talent to be a .343, providing some evidence that he has been very fortunate this year given the .041 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .384 wOBA.
Total Bases
Adrian Del Castillo logo
Adrian Del Castillo u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.78
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
In Major League Baseball, the 10th-highest fence height (on average) are at Chase Field.. Adrian Del Castillo hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (37.9% — 77th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.. Typically, batters like Adrian Del Castillo who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Sean Burke.. In terms of his batting average, Adrian Del Castillo has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season. His .255 mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .201.. Adrian Del Castillo has shown bad plate discipline since the start of last season, checking in at the 13th percentile with a 6.05 K/BB rate.
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Athletics Athletics logo ATH @ Seattle Mariners logo SEA Tue, Apr 21 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Lawrence Butler logo
Lawrence Butler o1.5 Total Bases (+210)
Projection 1.4
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lawrence Butler in the 80th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest fences in Major League Baseball.. Given Luis Castillo's large platoon split, Lawrence Butler will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today.. Lawrence Butler has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the weakest among every team today.
Total Bases
Nick Kurtz logo
Nick Kurtz o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.78
Best Odds
Pick made: 23 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Nick Kurtz projects as the 9th-best home run hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nick Kurtz is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest fences in Major League Baseball.. Nick Kurtz will have the handedness advantage against Luis Castillo today... and the cherry on top, Castillo has a large platoon split.. Nick Kurtz has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.
View 10 Picks
Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ San Francisco Giants logo SF Tue, Apr 21 • 9:45 PM ET
4 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
FirstFiveInnings Run Line
Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD FirstFiveInnings -0.5 (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
Joe Osborne image
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst

The Dodgers have a clear early edge, leading MLB in runs scored in innings 1–5 on the road, while the Giants rank dead last at home. Los Angeles is also in better form, leading the league in OPS over the past week compared to San Francisco at 18th. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been dominant, allowing just two earned runs in his last two starts and has owned Giants hitters, holding them to a combined .485 OPS in 79 at-bats, while Landen Roupp posted a 8.22 ERA in two appearances vs LA last season.

Total
Los Angeles Dodgers logo San Francisco Giants logo u7.5 (-125)
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 hours ago
JD Yonke image
JD Yonke
Betting Analyst

With temperatures in the mid-50s, it should be a pitcher-friendly environment. Yamamoto and Roupp have been two of the better starting pitchers in the league and should thrive. 

There are two quality bullpens behind them as well — L.A. ranks seventh in SIERA in relief (3.45) while San Francisco (3.55) isn’t far behind at ninth and has all of its top options well-rested and at the ready.

View 14 Picks

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