MLB Picks

Zack Wheeler is one of the most reliable strikeout arms in baseball, backed by elite ratings and steady swing-and-miss production. In elite rated starts, he clears 6+ strikeouts 88.24% of the time, reaches 7+ 70.59% of the time, and gets to 8+ in 60% of those outings. He also carries a 29% strikeout rate at home this season. Tonight he faces a Pirates lineup that has been highly strikeout prone, over 30% in recent games and above 26% over the last six. With that matchup and his consistency, 8+ strikeouts at plus money is a strong look for the bet.

Yordan Alvarez is once again in a strong spot as he faces Taj Bradley, who has struggled significantly with left handed hitters. Bradley has shown major issues away from home, allowing high elevation rates and consistent hard contact, with recent samples against lefties getting even worse, including elevated barrels and strong expected production metrics. Alvarez grades out as elite on Batters-Box and covers nearly the entire pitch mix he is likely to see, a profile that has translated to serious power production when in elite spots this season. He has also been consistently barreling baseballs at high exit velocities and already showed signs of breaking through with a recent home run, suggesting more damage could be coming tonight.

The Milwaukee Brewers’ young star enters a strong matchup against Cincinnati Reds left hander Andrew Abbott, who has consistently struggled with right handed hitters. Over his last 90 batters faced, Abbott has allowed elevated quality contact, including a 43% hard hit rate and 13% barrel rate, while posting a 5.59 xERA with opponents producing a .354 xBA, .662 xSLG, and .379 xwOBA. On the other side, Chourio has been thriving against southpaws over his last 60 plate appearances, hitting .345 with a .600 SLG and a 1.000 OPS, paired with elite hard contact metrics. With Abbott vulnerable, Milwaukee’s young core is positioned well.

This is a fun one due to Esteury Ruiz having the fourth highest matchup rating on Batters-Box as he draws Rockies Kyle Freeland. Against Freeland, Ruiz only covers around 35% of his arsenal, which is not ideal, but his expected numbers jump above 50%.

Freeland has struggled badly with righties this season. Over his last 30 faced, they are posting 45.8% hard hit rate, 25% barrel rate, and a 70.8% air rate. During that span those hitters carry .687 slugging and .455 xwOBA. With the Miami Marlins coming off a offensive night, I am not expecting much, just Ruiz going YA YA.

There’s reason to expect supple offensive output from both teams at Sutter Health Park (110 Park Factor, second only to Coors). Charlie Barnes has an unseemly 75 Stuff+ and should allow some runs to the Athletics, who rank ninth in wRC+ (102) against southpaws. The Los Angeles Dodgers have Teoscar Hernandez and Tommy Edman back healthy, and Mookie Betts is resembling his former self (202 wRC+ since June 19).

The Giants bring a disciplined, contact-heavy approach that limits strikeouts, with only a few bats above a 26% strikeout rate in recent plate appearances versus right-handed pitching. Several key hitters sit under 20%, with multiple below 13.3%, and Luis Arraez has not struck out in that span. On the mound, Zac Gallen has struggled significantly, posting a 5.27 ERA and 1.46 WHIP at home this season. Over his last three starts, he has been even worse with a 9.18 ERA and 1.68 WHIP, along with a low strikeout rate in recent outings. The matchup favors contact and fading Gallen.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.