Wednesday's MLB card is loaded with star power, and a few of baseball's biggest bats find themselves in favorable matchups.
Before locking in your MLB player props, here are the hitters my MLB picks are targeting to leave their mark tonight.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Yordan Alvarez |
Over 1.5 total bases | -113 |
 Jackson Chourio |
Over 1.5 total bases | -113 |
 Shohei Ohtani |
Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI | -125 |
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (-113)
It may feel like I'm beating a dead horse backing Yordan Alvarez all week long, but every matchup has been a go in my book. This evening against Minnesota Twins right-hander Taj Bradley is just as strong as yesterday's spot.
Alvarez covers nearly 90% of Bradley's pitch mix while sporting an elite rating on Batters-Box. In 17 elite ratings this season, he's homered nearly 30% of the time, recorded two hits 35% of the time, and cleared this prop 41.5% of the time. Not the sexiest total bases trend, but what Bradley has allowed left-handed hitters to do this season is pretty appetizing.
On the road this season against left-handed bats, the Twins right-hander is allowing a 68.8% elevation rate and a 40% hard-hit rate. Over his last 60 left-handed hitters faced, those numbers spike to a 53.3% hard-hit rate, a 21.1% barrel rate, and a 71.1% elevation rate during that stretch. Those hitters are also posting a .347 xBA, .690 xSLG, and .372 xwOBA in that span.
The Astros slugger has done nothing but generate hard contact all week, and yesterday, he finally left the yard. I think he does the same tonight.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SCHN, MNNT
Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 total bases (-113)
Unlike my record in June, Milwaukee Brewers' young slugger Jackson Chourio has been on fire against left-handed pitching. Over his last 60 plate appearances against southpaws, posting a .345 BA and .600 SLG with a 1.000 OPS, while generating a 55% hard-hit rate and a 12.5% barrel rate.
Tonight, he draws Cincinnati Reds left-hander Andrew Abbott, who has been tormented by right-handed hitters. Over the last 90 righties he has faced, they have not only generated a ton of hard contact, but Abbott's underlying metrics suggest he should be performing far worse. During that stretch, he owns a 5.59 xERA against right-handed hitters, who have posted a .354 xBA, .662 xSLG, and .379 xwOBA.
I think a lot of Brewers bats are in for a big night, but Chourio stands out as one of my favorite looks on the board.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI (-125)
No, it is not the sexiest price, but it's well worth the squeeze. Shohei Ohtani finds himself in a dream matchup against Athletics right-hander J.T. Ginn.
The No. 1-rated hitter on today's Batters-Box board is none other than Ohtani. Across 139 elite road ratings, he does nothing but show up and show out.
- 1+ hits: 75.54%
- 2+ hits: 33.81%
- Home run: 28.06%
- 2+ total bases: 58.99%
- 2+ HRR: 63.31%
- 3+ HRR: 50.36%
Ohtani has cleared this prop in seven of his last 10 elite road ratings.
Then there's the heater he's currently riding. Over his last stretch, he's batting .423 with a .769 SLG and a 1.236 OPS, while posting a 60.9% hard-hit rate and a 17.4% barrel rate.
Against Ginn, the Los Angeles Dodgers superstar owns 100% arsenal coverage. Yes, 100% arsenal coverage, while also carrying the top hitter rating on the slate. Over the last 60 left-handed hitters Ginn has faced, opponents own a .392 xBA, .500 xSLG, and .363 xwOBA.
If you are looking to avoid the juice today, I have no issue taking Ohtani's double or home run props outright.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCS-California, SportsNet Los Angeles
- Prop picks: 248-477, -21.3 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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