The Keystone State series continues at Citizens Bank Park tonight when the Pittsburgh Pirates battle the Philadelphia Phillies, and it's a battle of aces with Paul Skenes taking the mound vs. Zack Wheeler.
While a cursory glance might suggest that the Under is the play, my Pirates vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks have done the deep research and believe we're in for runs sooner or later on Thursday, July 1.
Who will win Pirates vs Phillies today: Phillies moneyline (-130)
Reigning NL Cy Young odds winner Paul Skenes has not been untouchable this season. Skenes has allowed at least one earned run in eight straight starts, and multiple runs six times.
That includes a May 17 outing against the Philadelphia Phillies in which he coughed up five earned in five frames, highlighted by a Bryce Harper solo shot.
The Phillies lead the majors in dingers over the last two weeks (24) while ranking fifth in wRC.
Skenes has failed to pitch past six innings in each of his last eight starts. Expect plenty of exposure for a Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen ranked 20th in WAR over the last month.
Play to -150.
COVERS INTEL: The Pirates are tops in the majors in hard-hit rate (45.1%) over the last two weeks, while the Phillies are fifth.
Pirates vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-117)
Zack Wheeler is putting together a solid season in the shadow of Cristopher Sanchez. Still, his strikeout rate is at a five-year low (8.8 per nine innings), and being able to fan this powerful Pirates lineup is crucial.
Pittsburgh is sixth in Ks over the last two weeks but also first in OPS and third in homers.
The Pirates' second-ranked 9.1% barrel rate over the last 30 days is also a cause for alarm for Wheeler, who's in the 60th percentile in barrel rate.
The Phillies bullpen is sixth in WAR over the last month yet is middle-of-the-road in terms of homers allowed per nine innings (1.26, 15th) and HR/FB ratio (14%, 19th).
I'm comfortable going to -125 on Over 7.5, and am sprinkling something on Over 8.5 at +110 or better.
Pirates vs Phillies weather
Hitters have a huge advantage on a hot, 95F day in Philadelphia, with the wind blowing out to left-center at 10 mph.
Pirates vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Pirates +127 | Phillies -133
- Run line: Pirates +1.5 | Phillies -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Pirates vs Phillies trend
The Phillies have hit the moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games (+10.60 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Phillies.
How to watch Pirates vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Wednesday, July 1, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SportsNet Pittsburgh, NBC Sports Philadelphia |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Paul Skenes (6-7, 3.10 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Zack Wheeler (8-1, 2.03 ERA) |
Pirates vs Phillies latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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