MLB Picks

Ranger Suárez has been dominant lately, allowing zero earned runs in five of his last six starts while posting a 1.96 road ERA. The Royals continue to struggle against left-handed pitching with a 2-10 record vs lefty starters and a 27th-ranked OPS against southpaws over the last two weeks. Boston’s bullpen has also been elite with an MLB-best 1.90 ERA during that two-week stretch.

With the absences of Byron Buxton and now Ryan Jeffers, Kody Clemens becomes the home-run target for the Minnesota Twins in arguably the best home run matchup on the board today against Lance McCullers Jr., who I have ranked as the worst starter on the slate. He has been giving up longballs, struggling with command, and his BlastContact numbers, along with his HR/FB rate, suggest more damage is on the way. Clemens hasn’t been putting up Buxton-level numbers lately, but nobody has. He does have five extra-base hits over his last five games, including a homer, and profiles as the left-handed bat to target against McCullers, who has been giving up home runs to lefties along with a .876 OPS. The bonuses here are a Houston Astros bullpen that sits dead last in ERA on the season and has thrown the fourth-most innings. Finally, 14-mph winds blowing out to center should help both sides in a game that could easily feature four-plus home runs.

Matthew Liberatore is an auto-fade with a -7 pitching run value, ranking in the bottom seventh percentile. That goes double vs. a Pittsburgh lineup that's seventh in batting average. While Mitch Keller isn't nearly as bad as his opposite number, the Pirates' bullpen has been gasoline to a fire in May with a 4.76 xFIP, 26th in the majors.

If you're betting home runs today, the Halos should be on your card. Jacob Lopez ranks as one of the worst starters on the board with a bottom-50 HR/FB rate and the sixth-worst xFIP among MLB starters. He has allowed multiple home runs in three straight games, right-handed hitters own eight of the 10 homers he has surrendered this year, and he’s backed by a bullpen that gives up home runs at a bottom-seven rate. There were a few names worth considering, but I’m landing on Jo Adell, who should hit higher in the order today against the lefty. All six of his home runs this season have come against southpaws, along with a .993 OPS. Mike Trout (+360) and Zach Neto (+460) were two other names I looked at in a great matchup with 75-degree temperatures and winds blowing out at Angel Stadium.