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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
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Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 3, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.89 |
+143 
|
o8.5 -105 
|
+1.5 -150 
|
|
4.60 |
-153
|
u8.5 -109 
|
-1.5 +135 
|
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 4 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 games as a road underdog.
- White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League West.
Houston
- Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Astros last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Astros last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 during game 4 of a series.
Top Projection
Miguel Vargas o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5+200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.77 |
-111
|
o8.0 -120
|
-1.5 +150
|
|
4.70 |
+101
|
u8.5 -112
|
+1.5 -166 
|
Milwaukee
- Over is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Brewers last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Brewers last 5 on grass.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 8-0 in Cubs last 8 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 6-0 in Cubs last 6 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Top Projection
Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5+200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.85 |
-120
|
o8.0 -125
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
4.47 |
+110
|
u8.5 -110
|
+1.5 -150 
|
Boston
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 overall.
- Red Sox are 7-0 in Bennetts last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Baltimore
- Over is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 games as an underdog.
- Orioles are 5-0 in Youngs last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Youngs last 4 starts on grass.
Top Projection
Luis Robert Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+226)
o0.5+226
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.22 |
+105
|
o9.0 -110 
|
-1.5 +155
|
|
5.31 |
-111
|
u9.5 -135
|
+1.5 -178
|
Miami
- Under is 7-0 in Alcantaras last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Alcantaras last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Alcantaras last 5 interleague starts.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a favorite.
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 games a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in Royals last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Royals last 4 during game 3 of a series.
Top Projection
Heriberto Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+123)
o1.5+123
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.20 |
-123
|
o7.0 -175
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
3.90 |
+115
|
u8.0 -118
|
+1.5 -157
|
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. American League West.
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 road games.
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 on grass.
Texas
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 on grass.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Quantrills last 5 starts on grass.
Top Projection
Wyatt Langford o0.5 Total RBIs (+246)
o0.5+246
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.03 |
+190
|
o7.0 -115
|
+3.5 -315
|
|
4.49 |
-203
|
u7.5 -130
|
-3.5 +245
|
Athletics
- Over is 3-0-2 in Perkins' last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 road games.
Seattle
- Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Mariners are 6-2 in their last 8 home games.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Mariners last 5 home games.
- Over is 6-1 in Mariners last 7 vs. American League West.
Top Projection
Cal Raleigh u1.5 Total Bases (-180)
u1.5-180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.26 |
+255
|
o7.0 -167
|
+4.5 -334
|
|
5.02 |
-285 
|
u8.0 -115
|
-4.5 +260
|
St. Louis
- Over is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 road games.
- Over is 8-0 in Cardinals last 8 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
LA Dodgers
- Under is 7-0 in Dodgers last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 home games.
Top Projection
Quinn Mathews u4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-102)
u4.5-102
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.13 |
-110
|
o8.5 +155
|
-1.5 +165
|
|
4.13 |
-110
|
-- |
+1.5 -190
|
Detroit
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mizes last 6 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 7-0 in Monteros last 7 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Mizes last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cleveland
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-1 in Guardians last 8 overall.
- Over is 7-1 in Guardians last 8 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Williams' last 4 starts on grass.
CHW
@
HOU
Thu, Sep 3 • 2:10 PM ET
Moneyline
HOU (-161)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Houston has one of the clearest matchup edges on the slate, with Luis Castillo getting crushed lately. His recent 11.05 FIP, 5.40 HR/9, and 51.6% hard-hit rate give the Astros a huge opening, while Hunter Brown’s current form gives them a much steadier pitching profile.
Walks
Yordan Alvarez o0.5 Walks (-117)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Yordan Alvarez has hammered Luis Castillo over the years, going 12-24 with five home runs and just two strikeouts.
The Houston Astros are not hitting well as a whole, making pitching to Alvarez an even more unnecessary risk than usual.
I’d play this up to -130.
MIL
@
CHC
Thu, Sep 3 • 7:15 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (+101)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
There have been 47 runs through the first three games of this series, and Chicago ranks second in xwOBA over the past 30 days, and Milwaukee checks in seventh. Additionally, the two teams have emptied their bullpens during the set with the Cubs relying on relievers for 12 innings and the Milwaukee bullpen pitching 14 frames. As a result, late-innings runs are also in the cards tonight.
Moneyline
MIL (-103)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Brewers have a sizable pitching edge in this series finale. Youngster Logan Henderson has allowed just three runs across his past three starts while posting an elite 2.82 xERA that’s right in line with his 2.73 year-long mark that ranks fifth among starters with at least 70 innings pitched. Chicago veteran Kevin Gausman hasn’t been nearly as consistent, and he’s allowed three runs or more in three of his five starts with the club for a solid – but unspectacular – 3.69 xERA and 3.60 xFIP. Both offenses are raking at the dish, and there have been 47 runs through the first three games of the series, so I’m siding with the superior starter tonight.
BOS
@
BAL
Thu, Sep 3 • 7:15 PM ET
Outs Recorded
Brandon Young u17.5 Outs Recorded (-125)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Brandon Young has been one of the luckier pitchers in the second half of baseball, with an xERA more than a full point higher than his 3.33 ERA. He is giving up homers and has the worst HR/FB rate in the second half among any starter on today's slate. With Baltimore in a tight playoff race and all but two arms likely unavailable in the bullpen today, any issues could be enough to get the hook for a pitcher who is 50% to the Over since the break and has been on the good side of some luck. The projection for the right-hander against the No. 2 scoring offense in the second half is 86 pitches and 15.68 outs, which would give bettors value on the Under if/when this number flips to 16.5. If this gets any shorter on 17.5, I'd suggest waiting for the move to 16.5 and playing that to -110.
Total Home Runs
Mickey Gasper o0.5 Total Home Runs (+510)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Brandon Young has been one of the luckier pitchers in the second half of the MLB season. His HR/FB rate is the 30th-worst among all MLB starters and the worst on today's slate. His xERA is more than a point higher than his actual ERA, and the warmer temperatures and winds blowing out to right aren't going to help him. Mickey Gasper is a switch-hitter who has been crushing right-handed pitching this year. It's been a small sample, but nobody has been a better slugging hitter than Gasper over the last two weeks, with a .964 SLG. I bet on him yesterday to no avail, but I'll happily go back to him in a better matchup that I'd play to 4.5x.
MIA
@
KC
Thu, Sep 3 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Heriberto Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+128)
Projection 2.09
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heriberto Hernandez in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Heriberto Hernandez is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The #6 venue in baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest altitude in the majors, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 95°.
Total Bases
Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (-103)
Projection 2.26
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bobby Witt Jr. as the 2nd-best batter in the majors when assessing his batting average skill.. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #6 venue in baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest altitude in the majors, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is predicted to have the hottest temperature on the slate at 95°.
TB
@
TEX
Thu, Sep 3 • 8:05 PM ET
Moneyline
TEX (+115)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Rangers are a sneaky underdog look tonight because Rays lefty Shane McClanahan has hit a snag to the tune of a 4.62 xERA and 4.66 xFIP with this strikeout percentage dropping to 18.8 across his past six starts. Texas also ranks second in wRC+ and fifth in wOBA against lefties, so I’m expecting the Rangers to have early success at the dish before Tampa has to turn to a bullpen that was leaned on for 12 innings and posted a confidence-shattering 5.19 xFIP in its latest series. Turning to Rangers starter Cal Quantrill, he’s spun a tidy 2.96 xERA and 3.32 xFIP through his past six outings, so I’m happy to back the Rangers to 50% tonight.
Strikeouts Thrown
Shane McClanahan u4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+105)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
This market is falling for good reason, as Shane McClanahan's leash, recent output, and projections are all pointing toward the Under. The Tampa starter is being handled with baby gloves, as he has gone 80, 74, 57, 49, 71, and 87 pitches since the break while going 1-5 O/U on this strikeout total. The Rays are being careful with the oft-injured lefty and need him healthy for a playoff run. McClanahan missed all of 2024 and 2025 due to Tommy John surgery and a nerve injury. He last threw 115 innings in 2023 and is already up to 113 innings this year, so it's easy to see why the organization is being cautious with him, especially with the Rays owning the best record in the AL. THE BAT is projecting 79 pitches and 4.55 Ks today, making this a fair price around -120/-115.
ATH
@
SEA
Thu, Sep 3 • 9:40 PM ET
Moneyline
SEA (-200)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Seattle’s profile is very clean here. The Mariners are swinging it with authority, carrying a 109 wRC+ and 10% barrel rate over the last week, while Jack Perkins brings command and homer issues. Kade Anderson’s 2.29 xERA also gives Seattle enough stability on the mound.
Total Singles
Lawrence Butler o0.5 Total Singles (+133)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Lawrence Butler is sporting a .294 average over the last 30 games, and has reached safely in 16 of his past 17.
Butler owns a .292 average facing LH fastballs, and .263 against the slider. Anderson throws one of the two pitches more than 87% of the time vs. lefties, setting up well for Butler.
Play to +110.
STL
@
LAD
Thu, Sep 3 • 10:10 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-116)
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst
St. Louis is on an 11-2 Over tear, and this matchup sets up for more scoring. The Cardinals rank fourth in OPS against lefties over the past month and should challenge Tarik Skubal, who hasn’t been quite as dominant with Los Angeles. On the other side, rookie Quinn Mathews owns a 5.03 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. He's backed by a bullpen that's posted a brutal 6.47 ERA over the past two weeks. Expect an aggressive Dodgers lineup vs the inexperienced starter and struggling bullpen as they look to break out of a 2-6 slide.
Total Bases
JB
Joshua Baez o1.5 Total Bases (+275)
Projection 1.18
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joshua Baez in the 93rd percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Joshua Baez is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game.. Dodger Stadium grades out as the #3 venue in MLB for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. On average, the fence height at Dodger Stadium is the lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.
DET
@
CLE
Fri, Sep 4 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Bases
David Fry u1.5 Total Bases (-250)
Projection 0.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
David Fry is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.. Progressive Field has the 4th-tallest fences in the league.. Batting from the same side that Casey Mize throws from, David Fry will not have the upper hand today.
Total Bases
Riley Greene o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Riley Greene is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Progressive Field projects as the #3 stadium in the game for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field has the 6th-shallowest right field fences in the majors.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate at 86%.
Our experts and prediction models are hard at work analyzing the data. Check back shortly for today's picks, or explore our Computer Picks for inspiration.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
