Tampa Bay vs Boston   Picks & Props

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The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Vilade in the 20th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. When starting against a southpaw this year, Ryan Vilade has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 63% of the time.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the coldest weather on the schedule today at 56°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hurlers.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the coldest weather on the schedule today at 56°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hurlers.. Masataka Yoshida has struggled with his Barrel%; his 6.7% rate last year has decreased to 0% this season.. In the last week, Masataka Yoshida's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal mark of 87.2 mph to 82.6 mph.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the coldest weather on the schedule today at 56°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hurlers.. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the 2nd-best among all the teams playing today.. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Junior Caminero today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Fortes in the 2nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Nick Fortes is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today's game.. This year, Nick Fortes has been pinch hit for in 25% of his appearances when starting against southpaw.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the coldest weather on the schedule today at 56°.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the coldest weather on the schedule today at 56°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hurlers.. Wilyer Abreu has been lucky this year, posting a .366 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .337 — a .029 discrepancy.. Wilyer Abreu has notched a .230 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, ranking in the 24th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mickey Gasper in the 15th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Mickey Gasper is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game.. Since the start of last season, Mickey Gasper has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 20% of his appearances when starting against right-handed starter.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the coldest weather on the schedule today at 56°.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the coldest weather on the schedule today at 56°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hurlers.. With a .192 batting average this year, Jarren Duran has performed in the 13th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cedric Mullins in the 2nd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Cedric Mullins is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today's game.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the coldest weather on the schedule today at 56°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hurlers.

Marcelo Mayer is penciled in 7th in the lineup today.. This year, Marcelo Mayer has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 24% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the coldest weather on the schedule today at 56°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hurlers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonny DeLuca in the 20th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Jonny DeLuca is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the coldest weather on the schedule today at 56°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hurlers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Caleb Durbin in the 10th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Caleb Durbin is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in today's game.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the coldest weather on the schedule today at 56°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hurlers.

When starting against a lefty on the mound this year, Ben Williamson has been pinch hit for 10% of the time.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the coldest weather on the schedule today at 56°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hurlers.. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the 2nd-best among all the teams playing today.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the coldest weather on the schedule today at 56°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hurlers.. Batting from the same side that Nick Martinez throws from, Trevor Story will be at a disadvantage in today's game.. Trevor Story's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 93.2-mph figure last season has dropped off to 88.6-mph.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the coldest weather on the schedule today at 56°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hurlers.. Hitting from the same side that Nick Martinez throws from, Willson Contreras meets a tough challenge today.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the coldest weather on the schedule today at 56°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hurlers.. Tolle will have the handedness advantage against Jonathan Aranda in today's game.. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the 2nd-best among all the teams playing today.

Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the coldest weather on the schedule today at 56°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hurlers.. Nick Martinez will have the handedness advantage against Ceddanne Rafaela in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Walls in the 7th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. Taylor Walls is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this game.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the coldest weather on the schedule today at 56°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hurlers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chandler Simpson as the 7th-best batter in MLB as it relates to his batting average skill.. Chandler Simpson is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. Fenway Park projects as the #5 park in the league for LHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Chandler Simpson has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences today.. Extreme groundball batters like Chandler Simpson tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Tolle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 8th-best hitter in baseball when estimating his batting average skill.. Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The #5 park in the majors for boosting base hits to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Yandy Diaz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tolle today.. Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for run-scoring.. The 3rd-shallowest right field fences in the league are found in Fenway Park.. In the past week, Jonathan Aranda's 68.8% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 50.5%.

When estimating his home run ability, Junior Caminero ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for run-scoring.. Batting from the opposite that Tolle throws from, Junior Caminero will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Junior Caminero pulls many of his flyballs (38.6% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today.

Jarren Duran's BABIP talent is projected in the 87th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jarren Duran is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for run-scoring.. Jarren Duran will hold the platoon advantage against Nick Martinez in today's game.. Jarren Duran has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Trevor Story is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for run-scoring.. Trevor Story has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for run-scoring.. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 75th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for run-scoring.. Ceddanne Rafaela hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Compared to his seasonal average of 9.3°, Ceddanne Rafaela has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 22.3° mark over the past 7 days.

When estimating his home run ability, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for run-scoring.. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Martinez throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have the upper hand today.. Wilyer Abreu pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.3% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for run-scoring.. Caleb Durbin pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.9% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Caleb Durbin will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Caleb Durbin has been unlucky this year, posting a .240 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .299 — a .059 deviation.. Posting a 1.59 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Caleb Durbin has demonstrated strong plate discipline, grading out in the 87th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Masataka Yoshida is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for run-scoring.. The 3rd-shallowest right field fences in the league are found in Fenway Park.. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Martinez throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have an edge in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 8th-best hitter in baseball when estimating his batting average skill.. Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for run-scoring.. Yandy Diaz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tolle today.. Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Chandler Simpson is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for run-scoring.. Chandler Simpson has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences today.. Extreme groundball batters like Chandler Simpson tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Tolle.. This season, Chandler Simpson has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 85.6 mph compared to last year's 81.1 mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for run-scoring.. Marcelo Mayer will have the handedness advantage over Nick Martinez in today's matchup.. Marcelo Mayer has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team today.. Marcelo Mayer will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

Ben Williamson has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (77% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for run-scoring.. Hitting from the opposite that Tolle throws from, Ben Williamson will have an edge today.. Ben Williamson has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Extreme groundball hitters like Ben Williamson tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Tolle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for run-scoring.. The 3rd-shallowest right field fences in the league are found in Fenway Park.. The switch-hitting Mickey Gasper will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Nick Martinez.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Mickey Gasper will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for run-scoring.. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Taylor Walls will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side against Tolle in today's matchup.. Taylor Walls has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Taylor Walls has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 81.4-mph to 83.5-mph in the past two weeks.. Taylor Walls's launch angle recently (28.6° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is a considerable increase over his 20.5° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for run-scoring.. Jonny DeLuca will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tolle in today's matchup.. Jonny DeLuca pulls many of his flyballs (33.8% — 75th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Checking in at the 82nd percentile, Jonny DeLuca has notched a .441 Slugging Percentage (SLG) since the start of last season.. With a .301 batting average since the start of last season, Jonny DeLuca has performed in the 96th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for run-scoring.. Cedric Mullins pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.7% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Over the last week, Cedric Mullins's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.1-mph over the course of the season to 92.1-mph in recent games.. There has been a significant improvement in Cedric Mullins's launch angle from last year's 23.3° to 31.1° this year.. Over the last week, Cedric Mullins's 18.2% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.4%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for run-scoring.. Nick Fortes will have the handedness advantage against Tolle in today's game.. Nick Fortes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.5% — 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Ryan Vilade is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for run-scoring.. Ryan Vilade will have the handedness advantage over Tolle in today's game.. Ryan Vilade hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Ryan Vilade has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 2.9% seasonal rate to 10% in the past week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cedric Mullins in the 81st percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Cedric Mullins pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.9% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Over the last week, Cedric Mullins's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.1-mph over the course of the season to 92.1-mph in recent games.. There has been a significant improvement in Cedric Mullins's launch angle from last year's 23.3° to 31.1° this year.. Over the last week, Cedric Mullins's 18.2% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.4%.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Yandy Diaz ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Yandy Diaz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tolle today.. Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball hitters like Yandy Diaz tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Tolle.

Trevor Story is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game.. Trevor Story has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Trevor Story will hold that advantage today.. Trevor Story has been unlucky this year, notching a .233 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .306 — a .073 discrepancy.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Jarren Duran is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. Jarren Duran will hold the platoon advantage against Nick Martinez in today's game.. Jarren Duran has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Jarren Duran will hold that advantage today.

When estimating his home run ability, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Martinez throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have the upper hand today.. Wilyer Abreu pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.3% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Wilyer Abreu will hold that advantage today.

When estimating his home run ability, Junior Caminero ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Batting from the opposite that Tolle throws from, Junior Caminero will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Junior Caminero pulls many of his flyballs (38.6% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today.. Junior Caminero has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 103.1-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal mark of 93.1-mph.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The 3rd-shallowest right field fences in the league are found in Fenway Park.. Based on Statcast metrics, Jonathan Aranda is in the 93rd percentile for offensive skills via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .369.. With a .365 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Jonathan Aranda finds himself in the 82nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage today.. Willson Contreras has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 18.8% seasonal rate to 25.8% over the past two weeks.

Jonny DeLuca will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tolle in today's matchup.. Jonny DeLuca pulls many of his flyballs (33.8% — 75th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Checking in at the 82nd percentile, Jonny DeLuca has notched a .441 Slugging Percentage (SLG) since the start of last season.

Ceddanne Rafaela hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Compared to his seasonal average of 9.3°, Ceddanne Rafaela has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 22.3° mark over the past 7 days.. In terms of his home runs, Ceddanne Rafaela has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His 15.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 21.6.

As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Taylor Walls will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side against Tolle in today's matchup.. Taylor Walls has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Taylor Walls has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 81.4-mph to 83.5-mph in the past two weeks.. Taylor Walls's launch angle recently (28.6° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is a considerable increase over his 20.5° seasonal angle.

Masataka Yoshida is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The 3rd-shallowest right field fences in the league are found in Fenway Park.. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Martinez throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have an edge in today's game.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Masataka Yoshida will hold that advantage today.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.9) suggests that Masataka Yoshida has been unlucky since the start of last season with his 8.6 actual HR/600.

Ryan Vilade is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game.. Ryan Vilade will have the handedness advantage over Tolle in today's game.. Ryan Vilade hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Ryan Vilade has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 2.9% seasonal rate to 10% in the past week's worth of games.. Ryan Vilade has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph to 92.2-mph in the past 7 days.

Caleb Durbin pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.9% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Caleb Durbin will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Caleb Durbin has been unlucky this year, posting a .240 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .299 — a .059 deviation.. Posting a 1.59 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Caleb Durbin has demonstrated strong plate discipline, grading out in the 87th percentile.