This might be the most overanalyzed game of the MLB season, but that's not stopping me from betting on dingers with Christian Scott and Aaron Nola on the mound. Home runs and MLB player props are all live Thursday night on the standalone game.
Despite one of the shorter prices on the board, Juan Soto is still projecting +EV to go deep vs. Aaron Nola, who's one of the best home run matchups in baseball. On the other side, lefty bats have the edge vs. Christian Scott, and Brandon Marsh at +400 or better is making the card.
These are my favorite home run predictions for Thursday, July 16.
Best MLB home run props today
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Mets home run pick: Juan Soto (+234)
I don't venture into this price range too often, but on a smaller card, with a +EV number and a ton of familiarity in the matchup, Juan Soto is making the card today.
He projects for nearly the same home run probability as Kyle Schwarber, but at a price roughly 50 points longer, according to Covers projections powered by THE BAT.
Soto has also seen plenty of Aaron Nola over his career, facing him 42 times and taking him deep five times. One homer every eight at-bats is an elite home run rate against any pitcher.
Nola has been a punching bag for hitters this season, ranking second-worst among qualified starters in HR/9, fourth-worst in HR/FB rate, and fourth-worst in BlastContact%. Since the start of 2024, left-handed hitters have accounted for 65% of the home runs he's allowed.
I'm playing this down to +200.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
Phillies home run pick: Brandon Marsh (+433)
Lefties have done the most damage against Christian Scott, which gives us plenty of Phillies bats to choose from. For the price, it's tough to ignore Brandon Marsh at +400 or better. Kyle Schwarber's and Bryce Harper's numbers have been bet down too far, while left-handed hitters have accounted for 11 of Scott's 15 home runs allowed.
Marsh is a .300 hitter who was batting .335 to begin June. His BlastContact% sits just behind the big boppers in Harper and Schwarber, and he's not a guy looking to take a free pass with just a 5.2% walk rate. When he steps into the box, he's swinging.
He faced Scott back in late June, and his only ball in play was a hard-hit single. Half of the balls put in play against Scott that day were hit at 95 mph or harder.
Marsh has treated me well all season, and this is the price at which I'm jumping back in while everyone else is piling onto Schwarber and Harper.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
- HR picks: 21-131, -21.63 units
Today’s HR parlay
 Juan Soto |
Bet Now +1400 |
 Brandon Marsh |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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