MLB Picks

Chris Sale has looked dominant all season and continues to pitch like one of the favorites for the NL Cy Young Award. The Braves ace owns a sub-2.00 ERA and has allowed one earned run or fewer in five of his last six starts. Coming off another scoreless outing, Sale now gets a matchup against a mediocre Marlins lineup that could struggle to generate much offense against him.

Recent meetings between these AL Central rivals have produced runs, and this matchup sets up similarly. Bibee has improved, but he’s still been less effective away from home, while Detroit scores over four runs per game at Comerica Park. Cleveland’s bats are also red-hot right now, averaging more than seven runs over the last three contests, making the Over appealing at this number.

I’m really hoping the New York Mets outfielders actually pick up the ball on Wednesday and throw it into the infield instead of allowing another inside-the-park grand slam, because we’re backing them on the moneyline against Zack Littell and the Washington Nationals. The Mets are trading as -122 favorites, but I price them closer to -145 in this spot. Zach Thornton is set to make his MLB debut for New York, and two of the first three hitters he’ll face are left-handed bats in James Wood and CJ Abrams. In this specific matchup, I like backing Thornton. It’s difficult for left-handed hitters to face a left-handed pitcher they’ve never seen before. Bo Bichette is also swinging a hot bat in this series, which adds another dimension to the Mets’ offense on Wednesday.

When you think about Kyle Harrison, it gets clearer. His hard hits will suppress ball carry even further, as they sit in the 94th percentile of the sport. In addition, Cabrera, despite his hard-contact issues, owns a 93rd percentile offspeed run value that helps mitigate damage when the changeup is working. I wouldn't play this past 6.5, but it's good to -125.

Randy Vasquez is getting batters to swing and miss, but when they make contact, they drive the ball. He’s in MLB’s bottom quartile in average exit velocity allowed, as well as hard-hit and barrel rate. The Dodgers have four batters in MLB’s Top 40 in barrel rate, four in the Top 50 in hard-hit percentage, and three in the Top 40 in average exit velo. Blowing it past them seems like a shaky prospect.

Kurtz is climbing the AL MVP board and now sits as the No. 5 betting favorite at +2200. Over the last two weeks, he owns the third-fastest swing speed in baseball behind Junior Caminero and Jordan Walker, while also ranking inside the Top 20 in both ISO and slugging percentage. He’s coming off a 3-for-5 game in Anaheim and should get a full nine innings against some of the worst pitching in baseball. Jack Kochanowicz is a pitch-to-contact arm with poor BlastContact numbers and is coming off a three-home-run outing at home against the Los Angeles Dodgers. His bullpen is also a massive target, carrying the second-worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks while dealing with closer issues. The Athletics piled up 15 hits yesterday, including six extra-base knocks. This fair price should be under +300.