MLB Picks

While I do think the Atlanta Braves are better equipped to take advantage of this pitching matchup, Nolan McLean is striking out 28.5% of batters and ranks in the 95th percentile of qualified pitchers in fastball run value. Meanwhile, the New York Mets only managed one run on four hits over 5.1 innings the last time they faced Martin Perez. I’m backing the Under, and I’d be willing to do so at a flat nine runs as well.

The Yankees scored five runs in Friday’s win. That’s the only time in the last 13 games they’ve reached that mark, despite playing Red Sox, Tigers, Reds, and Twins, all sub-.500 teams, including two last-place squads. Cody Bellinger, Ben Rice, and Paul Goldschmidt are all hitting below .150 over the last two weeks.

Ryan is in the 85th percentile in strikeout rate, and only four A.L. teams have whiffed more than the Yankees.

The Chicago Cubs have hit .279 vs. lefties since June 1 while ranking first in almost every major power category.

Javier Assad sits in the 23rd percentile in xERA and the second percentile in hard hit rate. He’s allowing a lot of quality contact, and the St. Louis Cardinals – who are fourth in wOBA vs. righties on the road the last month – are likely to capitalize.

Bet to -115.

Andrew Vaughn finds himself in a dream matchup against Arizona left hander Eduardo Rodríguez on Sunday. The Brewers first baseman enters with an elite Batters-Box rating while covering 80% of Rodríguez's pitch mix. Vaughn has crushed southpaws all season, posting a .408 batting average, .714 slugging percentage, and 1.231 OPS over his last 60 plate appearances against them, along with a 48.8% hard hit rate. Rodríguez has struggled badly against right handed hitters, allowing a 77.3% elevation rate on the road and a .599 expected slugging percentage over his last 90 batted balls. At +760, the value is impossible to ignore.

I made this total 9.1 and see value on the Under down to -135. 

Sears can do enough to keep the Dodgers from putting up a big number and the Padres offense won't explode against Sheehan. An Under bet with the best offense in baseball is always a risk but I project LA for 4.5 runs. On the other side, Sheehan is imperfect with a 10.4% barrel rate allowed, but his 26.1% strikeout rate can keep the Padres from carrying their half.

Ranger Suarez has given up seven earned runs over seven away starts since April 1, conceding multiple times once.

While Ryan Johnson has been underwhelming overall, he has allowed one run his last 11 innings of work and held the Mariners to one in his only matchup vs. a Bottom-15 team in OPS against righties.

Bet to -115.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.