MLB Picks

Recent history and current form both point toward a low-scoring matchup in Pittsburgh. Three of the last four meetings between these clubs have stayed Under, while both starters are trending positively. Aaron Nola has settled down lately, and Braxton Ashcraft continues to pitch consistently. With both bullpens also performing better recently, runs could be limited tonight.

Littell is one of the worst starters in baseball and profiles as a perfect pitcher fade for home runs, sitting in the bottom 15 in BlastContact%, HR/FB rate, and xFIP. It’s tough to go wrong with any Baltimore bat here, especially with one of the league’s worst bullpens likely being asked to cover four-plus innings. Littell worked as a bulk reliever last game and has thrown 69, 41, and 84 pitches over his last three outings. He’s also allowed multiple home runs in five of his eight appearances. Pete Alonso is a buy down to +290 today, and this number is dropping quickly. 

Yesavage owns a 0.68 ERA, allowing just one run in 13.1 innings. The strikeout rate has been impressive too, going Over the number in back-to-back starts, racking up 10.15 K/9 in that stretch with a 36% chase rate.

He's allowed a .176 batting average against this season on his splitter with a 38% whiff on the pitch.

The splitter is Yesavages put-away pitch, and it’s one that has troubled the Tigers bats all season long, posting a 39% strikeout rate with 41% whiff on the pitch.

The Brewers are turning to Chad Patrick to start Friday, and he’s pitched a scoreless opening frame in four of five starts while holding opposing hitters to a .599 OPS. Twins righty Joe Ryan has also tossed three consecutive scoreless opening innings to improve to 7-2 this season while holding opposing bats to a similar .587 OPS.

Tanner Bibee has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of five home starts this season. The Reds continue to struggle offensively on the road, ranking in the bottom third of MLB in both runs and OPS, which has contributed to an eight-game road skid. Cleveland has also thrived against left-handed starters with an 11-3 record, while Cincinnati’s bullpen ranks dead last in both ERA and FIP since May 1.

It’s Rivalry Weekend in MLB, and the Subway Series gets underway at Citi Field on Friday. If you’re going to give me an edge on the New York Yankees with Cam Schlittler on the mound, I’m taking it without hesitation. The Yankees are trading around -150, but I price them closer to -170 favorites in this matchup against the New York Mets. Clay Holmes gets the start for the Mets, and as a right-handed pitcher who relies heavily on a sinker and a sharp slider that moves more like a sweeper, this isn’t an ideal matchup for him. Those pitches tend to lose some effectiveness against left-handed hitters, and the Yankees lineup is loaded with left-handed bats. Outside of Aaron Judge and Anthony Volpe, much of the Yankees lineup will hit from the left side, and I think they can generate a ton of traffic on the bases against Holmes.

The White Sox rank fourth in wOBA, second in ISO, and second in hard hit rate against right-handed pitching this month – ahead of their North Side counterparts in each category.

Pitching has also been a strength. Sean Burke will be backed by a bullpen that owns a clean 1.00 WHIP and sits seventh in xFIP in May.

The San Diego Padres are trading as +118 underdogs on Friday, and I’m hitting the button on that number as I price the Padres closer to -110 favorites in this matchup. The Seattle Mariners are expected to stack their lineup with six left-handed hitters against right-hander Randy Vásquez, but Vásquez possesses two pitches that can help neutralize that advantage. He throws a hard, high-spin cutter that gets in on the hands of left-handed hitters, making it especially effective against pull-heavy bats like Josh Naylor and Luke Raley. Vásquez also pairs that cutter with a fading changeup that moves away from left-handed hitters and can completely disrupt their timing. It’s a strong matchup for Vásquez overall, and as always with any Padres moneyline bet, you’ll want to check the availability of Mason Miller, who has pitched only once over the last six days.

Ramos hasa great HR matchup today at Sutter Health Park with slight winds blowing out to right and Aaron Civale on the mound. The Athletics starter gives up fast swings and loud contact. His expected metrics suggest that shiny ERA isn’t built to last. Ramos projects as the best +EV home run play on the board today. The fair price for the middle-of-the-order bat is around +330, and he’ll also get a chance to attack an Athletics bullpen that owns the second-worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks and has been heavily used this week.

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.