MLB Picks

KC starter Seth Lugo has allowed one earned run in three of his last four starts, and he's never lost to the Rays, going 3-0 in his career, with a 1.86 ERA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryce Miller to throw 34 pitches in this matchup (2nd-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. Edwin Moscoso grades out as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is expected to be umping in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks PNC Park as the 5th-worst ballpark in MLB for strikeouts.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to more offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-best for hitting of all games today.

Nick Kurtz projects as the 7th-best batter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nick Kurtz is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. Among all major league parks, Oracle Park's RF fences are the shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters.. Nick Kurtz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Landen Roupp today.

Tatsuya Imai has posted an xERA of 3.61 or lower in three of his past four starts while striking batters out at an increased rate. He has turned a corner.

The Houston Astros should be able to provide him run support against Troy Melton, whose indicators (4.74 xFIP, 4.84 SIERA) suggest his 2.56 ERA is very unsustainable.

Back Houston to -115.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 2nd-best home run batter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. This matchup is expected to have the 15th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Batting from the opposite that Cade Cavalli throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have an advantage in today's game.. Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.9% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joc Pederson in the 9th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. When starting against a righty hurler this year, Joc Pederson has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 44% of the time.. Among all parks, the 8th-highest fences are at Rogers Centre.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report predicts for the 8th-most suitable hitting conditions of all games on the slate.. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-best infield defense belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to lower offensive output.. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense profiles as the best out of all the teams playing today.. Playing on the road typically weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Amed Rosario in today's matchup.. Over the past week, Amed Rosario's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10% down to 0%.. In the past week's worth of games, Amed Rosario's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal average of 93.4 mph to 83.2 mph.

Bo Bichette is not the punching bag he was last month. Over the last two weeks, he has been a Top-5 hitter in wRC+, slugging, and wOBA. He hit his 10th homer of the season last night and owns a 1.135 OPS over his last four series with eight multi-hit games in 12 contests. The winds are blowing out to center field at 15 mph tonight, and this series has been nothing but runs through three games in two days. Bichette lost Juan Soto, but Francisco Lindor is back and provides more punch to the lineup. The former Jay also gets a great matchup against left-hander Matthew Boyd, who is returning from injury, was pitching to a 6.00 ERA before going down, threw just 58 pitches in his last rehab start, and is backed by a bullpen that could be down four arms after yesterday's doubleheader. Bichette has seen the lefty five times and taken him deep once. I am all-in on runs in this game, and this is my favorite home run prop on the home side. I'd play it down to +425.

Zac Gallen continues to struggle, carrying a 6.00 FIP over his last two starts while allowing plenty of hard contact. Michael McGreevy has been much steadier, giving St. Louis the edge at Busch Stadium against an Arizona team relying on an out-of-form veteran starter.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.