MLB Picks

The Rays are an enigma. No one projected them to even be in the race, and here they are leading the AL East in late May. They've been demonstrably better than the Orioles, who do not have a starter announced. At this number, with Shane McClanahan on the bump for Tampa, there was never an alternative option.

Misiorowski rarely gives up runs, and the inconsistent Cardinals lineup has scored just eight runs combined in three recent losses. While Liberatore has struggled lately, he’s also had solid road outings recently. Milwaukee’s offense cooled off against the Dodgers, making a lower-scoring game likely.

Why are the Minnesota Twins road favorites today with Zebby Matthews on the mound? His run of good fortune feels due to snap with a .227 BABIP while stranding 93% of his runners. He was getting tagged in Triple-A before the call-up and simply doesn’t profile as a good pitcher. He also threw 100 pitches in his last outing and hands things over to a bullpen that ranks 25th in ERA on the season and could be without Taylor Rogers after back-to-back appearances. Meanwhile, Anthony Kay is quietly putting together a strong season with two or fewer earned runs allowed in eight of his 10 starts. The White Sox still feel undervalued by the market, and THE BAT has this fair price sitting at -120.

Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee is the weirdest pitcher in MLB this season. Somehow, he is 0-6 despite a 3.75 ERA and a generally solid FIP. He's not an overpowering hurler, and the Nationals have a dangerous offense, but he's not going to 0-7. I just don't see Zack Littell keeping Cleveland off the board. The only area where Littell thrives is in his 71st-percentile walk rate, which can be construed as a negative. He lives in the zone, and he gets killed in there. 

Jesus Luzardo's 4.85 ERA is certainly quite poor, but everything under the hood looks solid. He ranks in the 82nd percentile or better in fastball velocity, exit velocity, chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, walk rate, and hard-hit percentage. He's a buy-low candidate in fantasy baseball and a chief reason why I like the Phillies over the Padres here.

This one checks a lot of boxes and is a great way to start the week. Julio Rodríguez is in great form with the 18th-best slugging mark in baseball over the last week and the 15th-best BlastContact rate. He went deep yesterday at Kauffman Stadium and has multiple hits in three of his last four games. He also gets the best hitting environment on the slate in Sacramento with double-digit winds blowing out to center at 13 mph. He’ll get a crack at Aaron Civale, who has allowed five home runs over his last two starts. J-Rod has also done damage against the Athletics starter in a solid sample, going 7-for-15 with a homer across 15 at-bats. The +EV dinger carries a fair price around +300. It’s a great number for a late-night Memorial Day dinger.

I'm on the market here and wouldn't play this below 7, but at a plus-money price with how the Yankees are swinging lately, I'm inclined to lean towards the Under. The Yankees' offense, one of the best in the sport for long stretches over the past three years, has really struggled lately. It's been held to three runs or fewer in nine of its past 14 games. It should be ugly conditions in Yankee Stadium today, add in Ryan Weathers' strikeout rate, which ranks in the 97th percentile of baseball, and both offenses should stay fairly quiet.