MLB Picks

The Yankees have found a groove without star Aaron Judge (ribs) and won nine of their past 13 while averaging 5.5 runs per game and ranking ninth in wOBA and sixth in xwOBA. They’re also second in wOBA for the season against lefties, and Tigers southpaw Framber Valdez’s 4.47 xERA ranks in the 35th percentile. Additionally, New York righty Gerrit Cole has allowed two runs or fewer in four of five starts while holding opposing hitters to a pedestrian 30.7% squared-up contact rate and 10.2% blast contact rate. So, with the Tigers ranking 22nd in xwOBA with the 10th-highest strikeout rate across the past 30 days, I’m confident Cole can hold the Detroit lineup in check enough for a road win at Comerica tonight.

The Chicago Cubs feature a much healthier and deeper lineup, featuring steady production from Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ. Given Kodai Senga’s severe struggles to pitch deep into games or prevent big innings, Chicago's patient hitters should be able to drive up his pitch count early and exploit a vulnerable New York Mets bullpen. Backing the hotter pitcher against a depleted Mets roster is the clear, sharp play.

Los Angeles is well-positioned to find success against Zebby Matthews and a bullpen allowing homers at the fourth highest rate in June.

While Eric Lauer has shown some signs of improvement with the Dodgers, he still ranks in the ninth percentile in Pitcher Run Value this season.

Both teams should have productive days in a high-scoring affair.

Play the Over to -115.

The Cleveland Guardians are not a prolific offensive team against lefties but they have fared better on the road, sitting 19th in OBP and third in hard hit rate.

While Gavin Williams is an excellent pitcher, he owns a 4.94 ERA and 1.90 HR/9 on the road – much worse than his home outputs.

Chicago should chip in 3-4 runs, making the Over an appealing buy to -115.

Although the Atlanta Braves boast a superior overall record, sending a back-of-the-rotation arm against Michael King on the West Coast creates a tough uphill battle. The San Diego Padres have historically excelled in this exact spot, carrying a strong 23-17 record this season as underdogs or tight-line options. With King primed to neutralize Atlanta's power bats and force an early call to a taxed bullpen, San Diego holds the definitive situational edge to take the series opener.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.