The New York Mets will look to extend a three-game winning streak when they host the San Diego Padres tonight at Citi Field.
Nolan McLean gives the Mets an edge on the mound, and that has me picking New York in my Padres vs. Mets predictions.
Keep reading to see my full MLB picks for Monday, Aug. 17.
Who will win Padres vs Mets today: Mets (-121)
The New York Mets are coming off a home sweep over the Washington Nationals, and now send their best starter to the mound against the San Diego Padres.
Nolan McLean rates in the 98th percentile in fastball run value and strikes out 28% of the batters he faces.
The Mets should find success against Walker Buehler, who lets opponents hit the ball hard.
Buehler has allowed an average exit velocity of 89.4 mph, while New York ranks third in MLB in hard-hit percentage (41.5%).
I'm betting on the Mets tonight at -130 or shorter.
COVERS INTEL: Buehler has allowed opponents to barrel up on a relatively high 8.4% of batted balls, a dangerous number against a Mets team that has the sixth-highest barrel percentage in MLB (8.7%).
Padres vs Mets Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-121)
While both teams have bad offensive reputations, they have improved a bit as the season has worn on. While both rank below average in run scoring, they've gotten well out of the basement: The Padres are 21st (4.28 runs per game) and the Mets 22nd (4.18).
The underlying data looks even better, with New York ranking sixth in xwOBA (.320) and San Diego right behind them at .318.
These offenses are being undervalued against decent but far from overwhelming pitching tonight.
I'm betting the Over at -125 or better.
Padres vs Mets home run prediction: Carson Benge (+820)
Carson Benge has shown solid power for the Mets in his rookie season, hitting 14 homers in 492 plate appearances. That includes three homers in August, with one coming over the weekend against the Nationals.
After an awful start through April, Benge has shown massive improvement — slugging .560 in August — by far his best month yet.
Buehler has allowed 14 homers in 114 1/3 innings of work this year, and has allowed 1.13 homers per nine innings for his career.
I like Benge as a home run pick tonight at +800 or better.
- ML/RL bets: 14-23, -10.11 units
- Over/Under bets: 14-21, -8.09 units
Padres vs Mets weather
Clear and warm with a slight wind in from center, the weather should have little impact on tonight's game.
Padres vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: Padres +113 | Mets -117
- Run line: Padres +1.5 (-186) | Mets -1.5 (+178)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-117) | Under 7.5 (+113)
Padres vs Mets trend
The Mets are 9-3 straight up in their last 12 games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Mets.
How to watch Padres vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date | Monday, August 17, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Padres.TV, SNY |
| Padres starting pitcher | Walker Buehler (7-5, 4.88 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Nolan McLean (8-8, 3.42 ERA) |
Padres vs Mets latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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