Happy Monday! It's a lighter slate today, but there's still a whole lot to attack.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB player props for Aug. 17, including why I expect Bobby Witt Jr. to go nuclear.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Tomoyuki Sugano |
Under 3.5 strikeouts | -173 |
 Shota Imanaga |
Over 2.5 earned runs | +125 |
 Bobby Witt Jr. |
Over 1.5 total bases | -119 |
Tomoyuki Sugano Under 3.5 strikeouts (-173)
Before you ball up that fist after seeing this price, just know you can take the Under 2.5 at plus-money, or pair this prop with one of the others listed in this article.
However, Colorado Rockies right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano enters with the lowest matchup strikeout rate on Batters-Box. He's stayed Under this prop 63% of the time in 19 poorly-rated matchups. Sugano has also stayed Under this number in his last six poorly-rated strikeout ratings.
The Los Angeles Dodgers own the fourth-lowest road strikeout rate at just 20.7%. Sugano owns just a 13.33% strikeout rate inside Coors Field.
The Dodgers need to get back on track, and Sugano is the punching bag they need. Just don't take this any higher than it is.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNLA, COLR
Shota Imanaga Over 2.5 earned runs (+125)
Chicago Cubs left-hander Shota Imanaga enters Monday drawing one of the highest-rated lineups on the slate. The Chicago White Sox have the third-highest-rated offense on the day, according to Batters-Box's current-season dataset, which features four elite-rated hitters.
The White Sox have started to heat back up offensively following a big weekend in Detroit. Over their last six games, they own a 148 wRC+, .385 wOBA and .888 OPS.
Imanaga's last three starts also feature some underlying metrics the White Sox could look to exploit this evening. For starters, he is allowing a nearly 15% barrel rate and an 81.6% elevation rate, while opposing hitters own a .527 xSLG.
This feels like a strong spot for the White Sox to make another statement against the North Siders.
Playable down to +110, or take the White Sox first five team total Over 1.5 at -130 range.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, Marquee
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (-119)
The second-highest-rated hitter on the day over at Batters-Box happens to be the heart and soul of Kansas City, Mr. Bobby Witt Jr. The Kansas City Royals star covers nearly 80% of Athletics right-hander Mason Barnett's pitch mix.
In nearly 30 elite ratings at home, Witt Jr. surpasses this prop over 55% of the time, and has done so in seven of his last 10 elite ratings at home.
Across his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, the Royals shortstop sports a .333 BA, .519 SLG, .919 OPS, and 52.25% hard-hit rate.
On the other side, Barnett has been getting crushed by right-handed hitters, allowing a 23.5% barrel rate and 23.5% ground-ball rate, while they own a .360 xBA, .811 xSLG, and .412 xwOBA.
At -119, this price is worth paying. Take this down to -130.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ROYL, NBCSCA
- Prop picks: 407-785, -10.5 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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