MLB Picks

Cam Schlittler continues to shine in the Yankees’ rotation, carrying a 1.51 ERA while logging at least six innings in three straight outings. He’s stayed Under this mark in each of those starts and is coming off a scoreless performance. With past success against Baltimore and the Orioles struggling offensively, Schlittler is in a strong spot to limit damage once again.

You’re looking at one of the best HR environments on the board at Wrigley Field. With ~16 mph winds blowing out to right and temps around 70°F, the carry to RF is significantly boosted — ideal for left-handed power. Michael Busch gets a great matchup vs. Chase Petty, who is making his season debut for the big club after being just average at Triple-A. He logged six innings last year with the Reds and gave up three home runs on 14 hits. He also threw just 2.1 innings in his last outing and will likely hand things off early to a bullpen due for regression. Busch hasn’t gone deep in nine straight games, but he had an extra-base hit in every game vs. Arizona and finished that series 5-for-10 with 10 total bases.

The Cardinals rank ninth in runs per game and fourth in homers, with the emergence of young bats like JJ Wetherholt and Jordan Walker really lengthening their lineup. 

Patrick’s high flyball rate could be a problem, especially on a warm day with the wind blowing out.

The Milwaukee Brewers are also well positioned to produce. Kyle Leahy has conceded multiple runs in all six starts, and 3+ runs in four of six.

He’s giving up damage consistently and has not lasted six innings once. The fourth-ranked Brewers offense should cause him problems.

Jose Soriano has been dominant to start the season, posting a 0.84 ERA while piling up 49 strikeouts in just over 42 innings. He’s gone Over this number in three of his last five starts and now draws a favorable matchup against a Chicago lineup that ranks near the bottom in contact. With swing-and-miss stuff and strong home splits, Soriano should rack up Ks again.

It’s not every day we get +EV on a stick like Cal Raleigh, but today is the day to back a big name at value with a +390 price. This is the top +EV home-run play on the board, per Covers projections, and has a fair price of +290. Raleigh draws a strong matchup vs. JR Ritchie, who has been fortunate with a .227 BABIP and carries shaky HR/FB numbers in a small sample. His groundball rate won’t bail him out much, and Atlanta Braves starters tend to be pushed into the 90–95 pitch range even with subpar stuff. Ritchie has been tougher on righties, but all three homers he’s allowed have come off left-handed bats — and the switch-hitting Raleigh has six of his seven homers vs. RHPs. There’s some risk with Raleigh sitting out yesterday and a recent MRI, but it came back clean. He took BP on Sunday and said he’s feeling better. The bat wasn’t slowing down anyway, with five homers over his last 11 games.