MLB Picks

With the Under hitting in five of Detroit’s last six games, I’m going back to the well again today, especially as Boston has scored just eight runs across its past five contests.

Though Tolle is a bit of a wildcard, having logged five career starts, he’s only allowed six hits in his two 2026 outings. Meanwhile, you know what to expect from Skubal, who enters with a 2.70 ERA. The Under is also 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams.

Cam Schlittler continues to shine in the Yankees’ rotation, carrying a 1.51 ERA while logging at least six innings in three straight outings. He’s stayed Under this mark in each of those starts and is coming off a scoreless performance. With past success against Baltimore and the Orioles struggling offensively, Schlittler is in a strong spot to limit damage once again.

You’re looking at one of the best HR environments on the board at Wrigley Field. With ~16 mph winds blowing out to right and temps around 70°F, the carry to RF is significantly boosted — ideal for left-handed power. Michael Busch gets a great matchup vs. Chase Petty, who is making his season debut for the big club after being just average at Triple-A. He logged six innings last year with the Reds and gave up three home runs on 14 hits. He also threw just 2.1 innings in his last outing and will likely hand things off early to a bullpen due for regression. Busch hasn’t gone deep in nine straight games, but he had an extra-base hit in every game vs. Arizona and finished that series 5-for-10 with 10 total bases.

The Cardinals rank ninth in runs per game and fourth in homers, with the emergence of young bats like JJ Wetherholt and Jordan Walker really lengthening their lineup. The Milwaukee Brewers are also well positioned to produce. Kyle Leahy has conceded multiple runs in all six starts, and 3+ runs in four of six.

Jose Soriano has been dominant to start the season, posting a 0.84 ERA while piling up 49 strikeouts in just over 42 innings. He’s gone Over this number in three of his last five starts and now draws a favorable matchup against a Chicago lineup that ranks near the bottom in contact. With swing-and-miss stuff and strong home splits, Soriano should rack up Ks again.

Both teams have suffered major injuries to players they’re counting on to contribute at the plate. The Braves put Ronald Acuna Jr. on the injured list after he left a game over the weekend with hamstring tightness. Meanwhile, Seattle might be close to putting Cal Raleigh on the injured list with soreness in his side. He had an MRI and was held out of the last two games. The team said Sunday that an IL stint was possible. The Mariners scored 10 total runs over their latest weekend series and have plated five or less in seven of their last 10 overall.

We’re going to back Trevor McDonald in his first start of the season. The Padres lineup is stacked with right-handed hitters, but the heavy night air at Oracle Park should help neutralize that. This Padres offense relies heavily on fly balls to left field, which can get knocked down in these conditions. Meanwhile, the Giants lineup is better built to attack the gaps and put the ball in play against Randy Vásquez. I also like that Luis Arraez and Jung Hoo Lee are at the top of the Giants lineup. Both are left-handed hitters who can work the count and force Vásquez into deeper pitch counts. The Giants are available at +121 on the moneyline, but I believe this price should be closer to +105.