MLB Picks

Luis Gil's struggles will open the door for success for the Boston Red Sox, but the New York Yankees should be able to score, too. Connelly Early's 13% barrel rate, paired with an average exit velocity that’s actually worse than Gil's, is going to give the Bronx Bombers clear paths to run-scoring opportunities. I’d play this to 9.5 with a fair amount of confidence.

While both starting pitchers are off to solid starts, the gap between these offenses is significant, and Atlanta’s bullpen has been dominant. The Braves are 4-0 in Reynaldo Lopez’s outings, with Lopez allowing one earned run or fewer three times. He draws a Nationals lineup ranked 28th in OPS vs RHP over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Foster Griffin faces a tough task against an Atlanta team that's 6-1 when facing lefty starters. The Braves are second in the majors in runs per game on the road.

We all know that the Mets have been downright awful offensively, but they should find success tonight against Woods Richardson. 

The Twins starter has a career 4.35 ERA and 1.318 WHIP, isn’t a big strikeout pitcher, and gives up 1.3 homers per nine innings — all factors that a talented (if struggling) New York lineup can take advantage of.

The Phillies have scored two runs or fewer in five consecutive games and it’s difficult to envision things getting much better tonight. Philadelphia’s offense has been putrid against left-handed pitching, sporting a .260 wOBA (28th) and .549 OPS (29th). They now have to deal with Shota Imanaga, who has been one of the league’s best starters thus far. While I believe Jesus Luzardo to be much better than his counting stats indicate, this is a tough matchup to truly get back on track. The Cubs rank third in both wOBA and OPS against left-handed pitchers, and recorded 12 hits the last time they faced Luzardo.

The Orioles and Royals respectively rank third and last in percentage of games scoring a run in the first inning, so even with the wind forecasted to be howling out at Kauffman Stadium, I’m expecting starters Shane Baz and Kris Bubic to post zeros in the opening frame. Baltimore hasn’t scored an opening-inning run on the road all season, and Kansas City is the lowest-scoring team in the opening frame for the year and second-lowest scoring team overall, too.

Brenton Doyle might hit near the bottom of the Colorado Rockies lineup, but his +700 home run price at home vs. Randy Vásquez is a great number that I’d play down to +600. Coors Field is always a strong backdrop, but it stands out even more on this slate and projects as the top hitting environment on Tuesday. The snow is gone, temperatures are up to 80 degrees, and the wind is blowing out to left field — all pointing to a favorable home run setup. Vásquez can allow solid contact and ranks among the worst pitchers in baseball in Blast Contact% through the first month. Doyle may only have one homer so far, but it came against Vásquez two weeks ago, and he also brings one of the fastest swings in the Colorado lineup.

Guerrero Jr. has been known to hit his homers in bunches, so I’ll bet on him getting another one tonight in Angel Stadium after going yard last night. Additionally, Vladdy does seem to torture sinker ballers. He has a 56.6% hard-hit rate against the pitch this season, while posting a .532 slug-rate against it in 2025.

The Dodgers have a clear early edge, leading MLB in runs scored in innings 1–5 on the road, while the Giants rank dead last at home. Los Angeles is also in better form, leading the league in OPS over the past week compared to San Francisco at 18th. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been dominant, allowing just two earned runs in his last two starts and has owned Giants hitters, holding them to a combined .485 OPS in 79 at-bats, while Landen Roupp posted a 8.22 ERA in two appearances vs LA last season.