MLB Picks

Atlanta has the second-best run differential in baseball, behind only the Dodgers. They've also scored the second-most runs (5.6 per game) and allowed the second-fewest (3.3 per game) in MLB. Atlanta has won six of eight and has been even better in those games, scoring 6.9 runs per game.

Will Brennan is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today.. Will Brennan has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 54% of the time when starting against a northpaw since the start of last season.. The #4 field in the majors for suppressing batting average to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park.. Will Brennan will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.. Since the start of last season, Will Brennan's flyball exit velocity (a reliable standard to measure power) ranks in the 12th percentile at 87.4 mph.

The Tampa Bay Rays are averaging 5.06 runs per game so far this season, and have put up at least five runs in every game of their current winning streak. They’ll have a great chance to keep that going tonight against Pittsburgh Pirates starter Bubba Chandler.

With eight straight wins over the Royals, it’s fair to say the Yankees have their number. So I’m brushing aside the Bronx Bombers’ 3-7 mark across their past 10 contests, partly because Kansas City has the exact same record in that span. 

As well as Michael Wacha has pitched this year, including a 0.43 ERA, the New York lineup has plenty of prior at-bats to lean on against the veteran righty. In contrast, none of the Royals’ hitters have faced Cam Schlittler before, and the Yankees phenom has racked up 7+ strikeouts in each of his four outings this season.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 2nd-best for hitting on the slate.. Joey Ortiz has been unlucky in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .227 figure is significantly deflated relative to his .241 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Ranger Suarez has had a difficult start to his Red Sox career but that coincides with very tough competition. 

He has faced the Astros, Padres, and Cardinals. The Astros sit 4th in runs per game, the Padres sit 11th, and the Cardinals rank 7th in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers.

Suarez should get a little bit of relief against the Tigers. They have hit just .213 off lefties and rank 22nd in wRC+.

While most of the Red Sox top bats are lefties, they do have some good righties – most notably Willson Contreras and Ceddanne Rafaela – who could cause problems for Casey Mize.

Jordan Walker has elite marks in swing speed and Blast Contact%, which have translated into a league-leading eight home runs. He gets a favorable matchup against Peter Lambert, who is making his debut and may only be in this spot due to injuries in the Houston Astros' rotation rather than performance. Lambert hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2024 and has allowed 25 home runs over his last 148+ innings in the MLB. He’s unlikely to go deep, which brings a vulnerable Houston bullpen into play — a unit that has already allowed the second-most home runs this season.

11% of the time that Byron Buxton has started against a left-handed starter this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.. Target Field has the 9th-deepest CF fences in Major League Baseball.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-coldest weather of all games today at 43°.. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.. By putting up a 3.7 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Byron Buxton has shown weak plate discipline, placing in the 21st percentile.

The Dodgers are a warranted heavy favorite given their advantages in starting pitching, relief pitching, and hitting. Tyler Glasnow has strong underlying metrics (2.60 xERA, 2.83 FIP) and a 107 Stuff+, whereas Tomoyuki Sugano has a worrisome 4.98 xERA and 5.39 FIP. Sugano’s 82 Stuff+ ranks 178th out of 184 pitchers who have started a game. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jo Adell in the 95th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Jo Adell has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (65% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Angel Stadium profiles as the #7 venue in Major League Baseball for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In Major League Baseball, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. Jo Adell will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Gimenez is 3-for-8 against Soroka with two of those hits leaving the yard. The Jays’ shortstop has shown some sneaky power this season, especially against the four-seamer, where he owns a .727 slug-rate against, which happens to be Soroka's most utilized pitch. He also has a .983 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season. 

The Rangers hand deGrom the ball, who has a 2.87 ERA through three starts. The right-hander gave up only one earned run last time out to the powerful LA Dodgers. When it comes to facing this Mariners lineup, deGrom is utterly brilliant. Across 77 at-bats, he’s held them to a .182 average.

Munetaka Murakami's batting average talent is projected to be in the 3rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Low humidity has a small yet noteworthy correlation with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather report calls for the driest conditions of all games today at 9%.. Today, Munetaka Murakami is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.4% rate (87th percentile).. The Athletics outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest among every team today.. Munetaka Murakami will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.